SEC Bubble Watch

Image via SJU.edu

Ah, the SEC. Such a mystery, isn’t it? Seven teams are between 9-7 and 7-9 in the league, Florida is one of the best teams in the nation, Georgia is in third place (!), Arkansas has decided it can win on the road, and then… well, um, then there’s Kentucky. The “new fab five,” the “Undefeatables,” whatever positive nickname you wanted to call them, it doesn’t matter. None of that matters anymore. The fact is the Cats are struggling. They haven’t played well against anybody but Mississippi since February 1st. You know this, I know this, every member of BBN knows this, and Pat Forde surely knows this.

But does this mean the Cats are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament? Nope. And that’s what I’m here to mainly discuss. So let’s get it crackin’ in this week’s Bubble Watch:

Locks: Florida (27-2, RPI 3, SOS 24), Kentucky (21-8, RPI 17, SOS 6)

In my opinion, Florida is two more wins away from locking up a number one seed. However they attain those two wins doesn’t really matter, but if they are (at a minimum) 29-3 heading in to the big dance, they’ll be on the top line. Kentucky, though, is in a much more peculiar situation. They still have very strong RPI and SOS numbers (especially non-conference SOS), and their Sagarin PURE_ELO (strong measure of resume) is 38th, which, although not particularly strong, isn’t terrible either. I truly believe with the strength of the Cats current computer numbers that they can lose out (which isn’t going to happen) and still make the tournament. The bubble is weak, and the Cats did enough early on to solidify a bid I believe.

Right side of the bubble: Arkansas (20-9, RPI 53, SOS 77), Tennessee (17-11, RPI 48, SOS 13)

A week ago, I didn’t think Arkansas had much of a chance. They were presumed to be one of the worst road teams in the conference and hey, the Cats don’t lose at Rupp too often. Welp, after beating the Cats in Rupp, and after taking care of an improved Georgia squad in Fayetteville, I lean towards the Razorbacks being in at this point. They have strong wins over Kentucky (twice), SMU, Minnesota (neutral site) and Clemson, and they only have lost one game against a team ranked outside of the RPI top 100 (@TAM). The weak non-conference schedule is something to keep an eye on, but they certainly pass the “what have you done for me lately” test too.

Last week Tennessee was probably just on the outside looking in, but after handling both Mississippi State and Vandy this past weekend it’s time to slide them back in. The computer numbers have always been there for the Vols, but they are still a team that is better than their resume. Unfortunately for the puke orange, the committee looks at the best resumes and not the best teams, or UT would be safely in. The wins over Virginia and Xavier are nice, but getting swept by the SEC bubble killing Texas A&M Aggies definitely doesn’t help their case. If Tennessee can get to 20 wins (and I think they will), they I think they will get a bid.

Wrong side of the bubble: Missouri (20-9, RPI 49, SOS 88)

The Tigers are definitely still in the thick of it for a bid, but they are probably just a touch outside at the moment. Losing by 15 at Georgia isn’t the best way to impress the committee, with such little time remaining before Selection Sunday. The Tigers are now just 2-6 on the road in SEC play and they still have to travel to Knoxville next weekend in a game with huge bubble implications. Could it be a “winner gets in” type of game? Possibly. But there’s still basketball to be played and Tigers need to start messing around if the SEC is going to get more bids.

@BWardKSR