SEC Kickoff Preview: Kentucky Wildcats

A 7-6 record was once a cause for celebration in Lexington. That’s no longer the case. Mark Stoops has moved the program’s goalposts by upping expectations after producing a couple of 10-win seasons. 

The 2022 preseason was one of hype and excitement. Will Levis, Chris Rodriguez, and a couple of playmaking rookie receivers had the BBN abuzz leading up to the season’s opener. The Cats came out of the gate 4-0 and ranked in the top 10. The middle-late portion of the schedule was not so kind. UK finished 7-5 in the regular season before being blanked 21-0 by Iowa in the Music City Bowl. 

Primary tenants of a Mark Stoops offense have been physical offensive line play and a downhill running attack. Kentucky had neither for the most part of 2022. Offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello was brought in to carry on what Liam Coen had established. The result was a first-to-worst ranking in Red Zone TD percentage. Furthermore, the Cats’ third down conversion percentage dropped from 51% to 32%. More decreases included a 12-point per game average decline which was, you guessed, bad enough for last in the SEC. The Wildcat offense experienced significant production decays from 2021 to 2022. Stoops made an OC change and recalled Liam Coen from the Rams. 

Defensive coordinator Brad White was recently ranked as the SEC’s top defensive coordinator. This declaration served as confirmation for select analysts who’ve been saying this for quite some time. White has produced Top-5 defenses in the SEC in each of his four years in Lexington. His unit finished second in the league and was only listed behind Georgia in total defense in 2022. Names and numbers change, but an upper-level defense has been the constant result for the Cats in recent years. So much for the past, it’s time for the now. Let’s get into it. 

OFFENSE

2021 RZ TD % 72.3, 2022 RZ TD %  52.1

Quarterback Will Levis now calls Nashville home. Stoops dipped back into the portal to secure Devin Leary as his starting quarterback. The former NC State signal-caller was considered a top overall transfer in the Class of 2023. UK also made changes up front by bringing in a pair of starting tackles from the transfer portal: Marques Cox (Northern Illinois) and Courtland Ford (USC). Stoops also bolstered the interior front by adding two guards in Alabama’s Tanner Bowles and Ohio State’s Ben Chrisman. 

The Cats portal ventures didn’t stop there. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is now a Washington Commander. Stoops and Vince Marrow recruited and signed former Vanderbilt RB Ray Davis who went for over 100 yards vs. the Wildcats in the Commodores’ upset win in Lexington. Davis is an All-SEC caliber back that should flourish in Lexington. 

Joining Davis in the backfield will be veteran Ju’Tahn McClain. Depth at the position is at a premium and includes Ramon Jefferson, La’Vell Wright, NC State transfer Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, and true freshman Jamarion Wilcox. Justice Dingle will man the fullback position. 

Coen inherits a much deeper and stronger receiver room in his second stay in Lexington. True sophomores Barion Brown and Dane Key were magnificent a year ago. Super-senior Tayvion Robinson is an NFL prospect that started the 2022 season on fire before fizzling down the stretch. He’s back for a super-senior campaign. His current demeanor has been described as re-energized due to the return of Liam Coen. The trio construct one of the top receiving corps in many years. 

UK has a deep and physical collection of tight ends. That must be good news for the new play caller. Coen has traditionally utilized multiple TE personnel groups and formations. Brenden Bates, Jordan Dingle, Josh Kattus, and Izayah Cummings give Vince Marrow plenty of options. Each has unique traits that can be fitted into particular play calls and strategies. 

With talented and capable skill players on board, the most pressing issue solely focuses on the offensive line. Last season’s OL play was uncharacteristic and disturbing to watch. The Big Blue Wall had bullied defensive fronts. Seeing that not happen was again, alarming. Pass blocking inconsistencies led to the Cats to being ranked last in the SEC with 46 allowed QB sacks. Kentucky also surrendered 96 tackles for loss. Both categories produced drive-killing plays. Coen directed more personnel moves in addition to the aforementioned transfer portal acquisitions. 

All-SEC guard Kenneth Horsey, an ultimate team guy, kicked out to left tackle last season. He’s now back at guard which is his natural position. Guard Jager Burton moved inside to center. The sophomore is an excellent athlete with long reach. That could bode well for the stretch and outside zone schemes. 2021 Mid-Year All-American Eli Cox played center last year. He’s now back at his original guard spot. Team success or failure will be decided by the offensive line’s level of improvement. It could be as easy as that. 

Best Offensive Player: Quarterback Devin Leary

Devin Leary was a prized portal pickup. The 6’1, 217-pound transfer from North Carolina State started 26 career games for the Wolfpack. The signal-caller has passed for over 6,000 career yards and a 60% completion percentage. Leary’s best year was in 2021 when he threw 35 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions. 

Devin Leary may be more suited to run a Liam Coen offense than Will Levis. Leary is accurate in the short/intermediate game and has a quick release which is a derivative of rapid pre-snap processing. His arm isn’t as strong as Levis’, but whose is? Leary isn’t a power runner like his predecessor. But, that’s ok as well. However, his pocket operation fits Coen’s system and vision. 

Most Important Offensive Player: Tie, Marques Cox and Courtland Ford

Offensive tackle was a liability in 2022. Enter 6’5, 311-pound left tackle Marques Cox. The Northern Illinois transfer started 34 out of 36 college games. Cox only allowed 3 QB sacks in over 1000 snaps at UNI. He is a plug-and-play starter. 

With left tackle settled, Stoops addressed the other side by grabbing USC’s Courtland Ford via the portal. The 6’6, 315-pound junior was a necessary addition due to the Cats’ struggles at RT in 2022. 

DEFENSE

All Brad White does is produce Top-5 defenses in the SEC. 2022 was no different. In fact, UK finished second to Georgia in total defense a year ago after allowing just 311 yards per game. The Cats were also stingy on the scoreboard by giving up just 19 points per contest. 

White has a suitable blend of returning starters and newcomers that project to be in the two-deep. It all starts with defensive tackle Deone Walker. The true sophomore earned many honors after posting 40 tackles in 2022. He’s receiving preseason accolades including being named First Team All-SEC by On3.  Walker’s fellow defensive linemen include a deep and talented two-deep. North Carolina transfer Keeshawn Silver impressed in spring practice. The 6’4, 322-pound defender could add punch with size to the group. 

Nose tackle Josaih Hayes is slotted to be a starter in 2023 after Justin Rogers departed for Auburn. He’s joined by 6’5 sophomore Jamarius Dinkins. Octavious Oxendine flashed elite traits in 2021 before a season-ending injury. Oxendine put back on good weight and can be utilized in certain pass situations. Kahlil Saunders returns from a late-season injury with high praise from the coaching staff. Defensive end Tre’vonn Rybka will also factor. 

Linebackers Trevin Wallace and D’Eryk Jackson move into full-time starting roles on the inside. Jackson is an old-school, throwback linebacker who provides physicality between the tackles. Trevin Wallace is an elite athlete that I expect to be one of the risers in the SEC. The duo has played a high number of snaps. I expect the pair to be an upgrade. That’s saying a great deal since the two LBs they’re replacing both registered 300-career tackles. 

JJ Weaver is one of the SEC’s top returning edge defenders. True sophomore Keaten Wade is the future at the position and will play opposite of Weaver in certain sets. The secondary will have new starters. This especially applies at corner after losing Keidron Smith to graduation and Carrington Valentine to the NFL. Versatile veteran Andru Phillips is slated as one starter. The other will be the center of fall camp competition. JQ Hardaway, Jantzen Dunn, and others will slug it out in August to find out who aligns opposite of Phillips. 

The safety/nickel positions are in good shape and manned by returning veterans. Sophomore Jordan Lovett and Zion Childress are physical thumpers. Former starter Jalen Geiger returns from injury and can cover a great deal of ground. Nickel/medium defender Alex Afari is a rising star and could have a breakout season in 2023. 

Best Defensive Player: Deone Walker 

Deone Walker had one of the most prolific true freshman seasons in program history. Listed at 6’6, 348 pounds, Walker was named a True Freshman All-American by On3, PFF, and CFN. In addition to being the SEC’s Co-Defensive Player of the Week, Walker was also added to the All-SEC Freshman Team as well as All-SEC honors by various outlets. 

The Detroit product was extremely active and developed into a havoc-producing presence down the stretch. Walker played in 12 games including 11 consecutive starts. The defensive tackle recorded 40 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 5 QB hurries, 2 pass breakups, and forced a fumble. 

Most Important Defensive Player: JJ Weaver 

Quarterback sacks is one defensive category that Kentucky needs to approve upon in 2023. The Cats’ primary pass rusher will be veteran Edge JJ Weaver. The 6’5, 250-pound senior has registered 120 career tackles including 23.5 for loss, 9.5 QB sacks, 10 QB hurries, 2 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and 3 fumble recoveries in his stay in Lexington. A senior campaign with double-digit sacks could boost the crowd favorite’s draft situation and greatly assist UK’s overall pass-rush capabilities.  

SCHEDULE PREVIEW

Kentucky comes out of the gate with three non-conference games. The Cats will be heavy favorites against Ball State, EKU, and Akron before a tricky trip to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt in a revenge game. Be careful here. Vanderbilt is improved and rising under Clark Lea. 

Florida at home is next before taking on Georgia in Athens. Missouri and Tennessee are up next with a bye week in between the two SEC foes. Trips to Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Louisville round out the slate.  Alabama will travel to Kroger Field in a game that’s settled between MSU and Carolina. 

2023 PREDICTION: SEC East – 2

What Does All This Mean? 

Kentucky should be better in 2023. The portal was instrumental in Mark Stoops’ roster construction. There’s a bunch of new names that have played a great deal of football on the two-deep. UK also returns key starters and contributors to construct a preferred mix of old and new. The Cats got Alabama out of the West which means that UK will likely have to play the top-ranked teams from the East (Georgia) and West Divisions (Alabama). 

UK was in unfamiliar territory this time last year. Praise and preseason accolades didn’t sit well with Mark Stoops. The program’s all-time winningest coach favors being hunter, not the hunted. There’s a great deal to like about this Kentucky team. Coen’s return brings buy-in and trust from offensive veterans and newcomers alike. I’m not sure that was the case during the 2022 season. 

Brad White and Mark Stoops also have new faces on defense. But, there are several returning starters and contributors in all three levels that should steady the defensive side of the football. 

I can see a path to 10-wins but I can also see a road to 6.  The margin of error against its demanding schedule is minuscule. Projecting this team’s outcome may come down to one position group, the offensive line. Depending on your outlook, that can be perceived as either pressure or an opportunity. The Cats have a chance to pounce in 2023 if the offensive line can return to its glory days of the Big Blue Wall.  

Catch up on all of our Kroger SEC Kickoff Previews

• LSU Tigers
• Texas A&M Aggies
• Missouri Tigers
• Vanderbilt Commodores
• Georgia Bulldogs
• Auburn Tigers
• Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Alabama Crimson Tide
• Arkansas Razorbacks
• Florida Gators

Thanks to our good friends at Kroger, the KSR crew is in Nashville covering SEC Media Days in the most in-depth and, at times, ridiculous manner possible. Kroger is your hometown, community spot for all your shopping needs. Kroger is proud to support local schools through Kroger Community Rewards. This includes up to 3.5 million in quarterly gifts to the non-profit of your choice. Sign up using your Kroger loyalty card at Kroger.com/communityrewards.