SEC Kickoff Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores

For the first time ever, Vanderbilt is the host school for SEC Media Days. Well, not really. This event doesn’t actually have host schools, but the pressers and festivities are in the construction-riddled Nashville, Tennessee.

Head coach Clark Lea is entering his third year with the program and has a 7-17 record. His team finished last year’s campaign at 5-7. I am a believer in Lea. The Vandy job is one of the most challenging in all of college football. VU’s moderate success must be valued differently than other traditional programs. Overall, things appear to be looking up in the Music City.

Vanderbilt had two huge, upset wins in 2022. The Commodores defeated Kentucky 24-21 and bested Florida 31-24. The UK victory marked VU’s first SEC win in 26 games. Yikes. Yes, that was an embarrassing performance by the ‘Cats, but VU physically whipped UK for 60 minutes. There was nothing fluky about the win.

I have Vandy ranked 7th in the East. But, Lea’s team made me think twice about the decision. That hasn’t been the case in years past. Can the Dores build off 2023 momentum? We’ll see. Let’s get into it.

OFFENSE

Vanderbilt averaged nearly 25 points per game last season under coordinator Joey Lynch. That may not seem like much, but last season’s average was the program’s highest since 2018. AJ Swann is expected to be the team’s starting quarterback. He had ups and downs as a true freshman. Most do at that development stage. Veteran Ken Seals is slated to be the backup. He has SEC starts and is an experienced option if necessary.

Receiver Will Sheppard is one of the best pass catchers in the SEC. You can read more about him below. Running back Patrick Smith is a returning veteran but was pushed in spring practice. His production declined in 2022 but could see more carries due to Ray Davis transferring out of the program.

A collection of above-average skill players will be joined by seven-plus returning offensive linemen to give VU a workable nucleus going into fall camp.

Best Offensive Player-Receiver Will Sheppard

Receiver Will Sheppard is one of the SEC’s best. The 6’3, 198-pound senior was named to all-conference teams a year ago after finishing the season with 60 receptions for 776 yards and nine touchdowns. His nine receiving TDs ranked second in the SEC and 11th nationally.

Kentucky fans should be familiar with the Vanderbilt pass catcher. Sheppard caught the game-winning touchdown pass with 32 seconds left on the clock to secure a win in Lexington. That victory marked Vanderbilt’s first conference win since 2019.

Most Important Offensive Player: Quarterback AJ Swann

The 6’3, 228-pound true sophomore from Georgia completed 58% of his passes a year ago. He also threw for 1274 yards and 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Swann is the undeniable starter in Nashville. This is his team. The confident youngster has a gunslinger mentality and isn’t afraid to attempt the difficult throws.

Cleaning up fundamentals and typical year-one to year-two growths are mandatory. Teamed up with Sheppard and capable tight ends, Swann should have enough time to throw the football behind several returning offensive linemen.

DEFENSE

Coordinator Nick Howell has some work to do. His defense surrendered an eye-popping 36 points per game in 2022. That’s not good. He’s back for another season. The play caller needs to get it right in a hurry. Clark Lea and his staff have improved defensive talent through above-standard recruiting. The success, or lack thereof for the 2023 Commodores, will likely hinge on defensive improvements.

The SEC is still a line-of-scrimmage league. It all starts up front. Stopping the run is the first step in becoming a team that can win games on the strength of their defense. Defensive end Nate Clifton has 25 career starts and is the front’s leader. Linebacker Ethan Barr is also a longtime starter and is expected to sustain his tackling prowess. The back third’s top player is free safety Jaylen Mahoney. The crafty veteran sports 35 career starts and has played at nearly every secondary position. Mahoney’s running mate is 6’4, 220-pound strong safety De’Rickey Wright.

Best Defensive Player: Anchor CJ Taylor

We are familiar with the term “Position-less” in the Bluegrass State. Taylor fits that description but on the gridiron. Playing the “Anchor” or hybrid defender role, the sophomore registered 59 tackles, seven tackles for loss, one interception, and two fumble returns for touchdowns. Wildcat fans should remember Taylor from his critical sack of Will Levis when the game was in doubt a year ago. Taylor can align all over the field and can potentially cause problems for offensive coordinators across the SEC.

Most Important Defensive Player: De’Rickey Wright

Wright is an explosive and active defensive player. He recorded 55 tackles, 2.5 for loss, intercepted three passes, and had seven pass breakups in 2022. Wright recorded 10 tackles vs. South Carolina and intercepted two passes vs. Ole Miss. Standing at 6’4, the rangy safety can cover a great deal of ground and is also a capable tackler vs. the run. A potential NFL draft pick, Wright’s range and explosive play capabilities bring a third-level punch to the Vandy defense.

2023 Schedule Overview

VU opens up with a pair of winnable games against Hawaii and Alabama A&M. The ‘Dores then have an academic bowl matchup against Wake Forest before rounding out its non-conference schedule vs. UNLV. A 4-0 start is not unimaginable before Kentucky comes calling on September 23. The ‘Cats owe Vandy one after last season’s debacle. Stoops landed former Commodore running back Ray Davis from the portal. This one could get a little chippy.

Crossover games include a trip to Ole Miss and a home contest vs. Auburn on November 4. The Fighting Clark Lea’s finish the season against arch-enemy Tennessee. Is a bowl game possible? Maybe. The win total is projected at 3.5. Kentucky sports gambling doesn’t start till September, but that’s a bet I’d take. Again, I am a Clark Lea fan. He’s done a good job at a nearly impossible SEC outpost.

2023 PREDICTION: SEC East, 7th

What Does All This Mean?

Kentucky cannot lose to Vanderbilt in consecutive years. This is non-negotiable. September 23 is a monstrous day for the Commodores as they start SEC play against the Wildcats. Last year’s road win will give Lea’s squad added confidence.

VU will likely be better than last year’s 5-7 team even if that’s not reflected in the W/L column.

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