SEC Projections heading into the Second Saturday of Conference Play

by:Tyler Thompson•about 9 hours•

MrsTylerKSR

SEC logo on a basketball court at Bridgestone Arena - © Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

After two conference games, only five SEC teams remain unscathed in league play: Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. The first week of SEC play showed how volatile the league will be, with No. 1 Tennessee losing at No. 8 Florida by 30 and Kentucky losing at Georgia just days after beating Florida in Rupp Arena.

What does the second Saturday of SEC play have in store? While there are only two ranked vs. ranked matchups, almost every game looks like a good one, providing plenty of entertainment on a snowy day.

Saturday’s SEC Schedule

TIME (ET)	MATCHUP		TV	LOCATION
1:00 PM	No. 2 Auburn	at South Carolina	SEC Network	Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC
3:30 PM	Vanderbilt	at Missouri	SEC Network	Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO
4:00 PM	No. 8 Florida	at Arkansas	ESPN	Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
6:00 PM	No. 1 Tennessee	at Texas	ESPN	Moody Center, Austin, TX
6:00 PM	No. 17 Oklahoma	at Georgia	ESPN2	Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA
6:00 PM	LSU	at No. 23 Ole Miss	SEC Network	The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS
8:00 PM	No. 5 Alabama	at No. 10 Texas A&M	ESPN	Reed Arena, College Station, TX
8:30 PM	No. 6 Kentucky	at No. 14 Mississippi State	SEC Network	Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS

Trying to predict the SEC standings at the end of the season feels impossible at this point, but the computer models are trying. Let’s look at a few and where the Cats lie.

KenPom Projected SEC Standings

Auburn: 15-3
Alabama: 12-6
Florida: 12-6
Tennessee: 12-6
Mississippi State: 11-7
Texas A&M: 11-7
Ole Miss: 10-8
Kentucky: 9-9
Missouri: 8-10
Arkansas: 7-11
Georgia: 7-11
Oklahoma: 7-11
Texas: 7-11
Vanderbilt: 7-11
LSU: 4-14
South Carolina: 4-14

KenPom has the Cats going 9-9 in SEC play, which would make them the No. 8 seed in the SEC Tournament, playing the first game on Thursday afternoon for the chance to face Auburn on Friday. KenPom’s game-by-game projections actually have the Cats dropping 11 SEC games (including seven of eight on the road, the lone exception being at Vanderbilt), but the projected record is based on cumulative probabilities, not the game-by-game totals. That makes sense when you see how razor-thin the margin is on some of the games.

Get the On3 Top 10 to your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

1/11: at Mississippi State: LOSS (31% chance of victory)
1/18: Alabama: LOSS (48%)
1/28: at Tennessee: LOSS (20%)
2/4: at Ole Miss: LOSS (40%)
2/11: Tennessee: LOSS (44%)
2/15: at Texas: LOSS (47%)
2/22: at Alabama: LOSS (23%)
2/26: at Oklahoma: LOSS (47%)
3/1: Auburn: LOSS (25%)
3/8: at Missouri (49%)

BartTorvik also has the Cats finishing SEC play 9-9, but gives Kentucky the edge at Oklahoma on Feb. 26. Both models project Auburn to win the SEC with a 15-3 record, but when you go game by game, the Tigers are picked to win all of them, the closest being at Alabama, at Texas A&M, and at Kentucky. Even Auburn has to lose an SEC game at some point, right?

We knew the SEC would be tough this season, but when you look at the projected standings, you realize just how difficult it will be to get the double-bye in the tournament. Kentucky has yet to win a true road game. If they continue to struggle on the road, playing on Thursday — or maybe even Wednesday — in Nashville will be an unavoidable reality.