SEC creates unique tiebreaker model that will enhance playoff race chaos

For the first time since 1991, the Southeastern Conference will play a football season without divisions. The only difference was that there were only 10 teams in the conference 33 years ago, conference championship games were not a thing, and the idea of a college football playoff was considered far-fetched.

Times have changed.

The SEC went to a division model in 1992 following the additions of Arkansas and South Carolina. That move started the championship game era. When Missouri and Texas A&M were added to the league two decades later, the division structure did not go away. That made tiebreaker scenarios for the SEC Championship Game fairly simple — division winners with a semi-true round robin provided the league some automatic qualifiers. The league’s process is not as simple anymore with membership growing to 16 teams in 2024 after adding Oklahoma and Texas. That move eliminated divisions and could create a muddy picture for determining the two teams to play in the conference championship game.

On Thursday, the league office finally let us know the plan if there is a multi-team tie at the top of the conference standings following a regular season with unbalanced schedules. We finally have the tiebreaker scenarios.

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
6. Random draw of the tied teams

Those who follow KSR’s tiebreaker content in the race for SEC Tournament seeding should not be confused by the first three tiebreakers. Even No. 4 (winning percentage) gets used in SEC Tournament seeding very often. But where things get different is No. 5 and No. 6.

This is the SEC’s “break glass in case of emergency” option. Hawks hockey head coach Jack Reilly would be proud.

Will SEC head coaches have to consider winning margin when games are in doubt in the fourth quarter? That is on the table now but a lot would have to happen for us to get there. The capped relative scoring margin would balance how much Team A beat Team B and weigh that against Team B’s season scoring average.

Here is the SEC's appendix on how "capped relative scoring margin" is calculated as part of the football tiebreakers. https://t.co/mvx1rqkEvK pic.twitter.com/SWZu8DtS24

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) August 21, 2024

That is going to confuse a lot of people. So let’s keep it simple — win by as much as possible, and you will have an advantage on the rest of the field in this scenario. The likely goal of this model is to weigh the scoring margin against good teams instead of teams juicing the numbers with huge point totals against bad teams.

In the most ridiculous manner possible, getting to option No. 6 and airing a drawing on the SEC Network would make for excellent television after the Thanksgiving holiday comes to a close. That’s about the same as the coin toss we saw on “Friday Night Lights”.

No. 4 (cumulative conference winning percentage) is likely what will break most ties. No. 3 (record against highest placed common opponent) also should be a rock-solid tiebreaker. But we need to prepare ourselves for potential multi-team ties — especially at eight games.

Each team is currently only playing 53.3 percent of the conference in the eight-game model. That could create some crazy logjams in the standings. Last season, the Mountain West moved away from divisions and had a three-way tie for first place at 6-2. Boise State, San Jose State, and UNLV did not face each other in the regular season. The league had to use a computer ranking to break the tie — that was after a scenario where the College Football Playoff top 25 could’ve broken a tie. Notably, the SEC is not using any human ranking or computer metric in its league tiebreaker scenarios.

Greg Sankey’s office had to build multi-layered tiebreaker scenarios to prepare for the unexpected. You would have to squint to get there, but scoring margin could come into play in a three-team or more tie. Back in 1989, the SEC had a three-way tie atop the standings with Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee all sitting on one loss. Something similar could occur again.

We have a chance for carnage in this divisionless era. What will now be a wild race for playoff seeding in November could get even crazier with the SEC standings race. College football is entering a new era where the sport is positioned to deliver high-stakes drama over the last six weeks of the season with 30ish teams being involved in the national title race.

Scoring margin or random luck of the draw could determine if a team gets to Atlanta for the conference championship or not. What a sport.