SEC Tournament Scenarios: Kentucky will draw Alabama or LSU

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Believe it or not, the college basketball regular season has come to an end. Kentucky finished the year 25-6 (14-4) following a win over Florida and locked up the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament in a conference that is stacked. Who will the Wildcats play on Friday in Tampa?

Well, we’re still waiting to find out.

Ole Miss hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday evening, but each of team has locked up a seed in the SEC Tournament to play on opening night. However, the meeting between Mississippi State and Texas A&M at Reed Arena will determine the seeding for six teams in the SEC.

The league is set to have a five-way finish with 9-9 records this season. KSR has done the hard work and crunched the numbers for every possible scenario. Now let’s dive into the possible outcomes.

Mississippi State win could mean Friday matchup with LSU

If Ben Howland’s team can hit the road and record only their second road win of the season, this is what the SEC Tournament seeds 1-14 will look like.

Auburn (15-3)
Tennessee (14-4)
Kentucky (14-4)
Arkansas (13-5)
Alabama (9-9)
LSU (9-9)
Florida (9-9)
South Carolina (9-9)
Mississippi State (9-9)
Texas A&M (8-10)
Vanderbilt (TBD)
Missouri (5-13)
Ole Miss (TBD)
Georgia (1-17)

Alabama would win the tiebreaker derby and claim the No. 5 seed thanks to an overall pool record of 4-2. LSU had a pool record of 3-2 and would claim the No. 6 seed. Meanwhile, Florida or Texas A&M would draw Tennessee and Auburn would get the winner of South Carolina or Mississippi State.

Kentucky is the big loser in this scenario as the 14-win conference team would have to draw a team it played twice in the regular season. Many are projecting Will Wade’s Tigers to be a top-six seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Alabama, LSU flip flop if Texas A&M protects home court

Now let’s dive into SEC Tournament seeding if the Aggies knock off Mississippi State to keep their slim life on the bubble alive.

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Auburn (15-3)
Tennessee (14-4)
Kentucky (14-4)
Arkansas (13-5)
LSU (9-9)
Alabama (9-9)
South Carolina (9-9)
Texas A&M (9-9)
Florida (9-9)
Mississippi State (8-10)
Vanderbilt (TBD)
Missouri (5-13)
Ole Miss (TBD)
Georgia (1-17)

In the next scenario, Alabama and LSU just switch places. The Tigers could get another swing at Arkansas with a win over Missouri or Ole Miss thanks to a 4-2 record in pool play. Alabama — 3-2 record in pool play — would need to beat either Vanderbilt or Georgia to set up a third meeting with Kentucky.

Once again, Kentucky is the biggest loser in this scenario as they’ll have to beat a team for the third time that owns wins over top seeds Gonzaga and Baylor.

Auburn could get a tough draw facing bubble team Florida on Friday if the Gators can get by Texas A&M. Tennessee would benefit by drawing South Carolina or Mississippi State.

Regardless, Kentucky will get a tough draw and could have to beat three top-25 teams in Tampa to claim another SEC Tournament title.