SEC Tournament scenarios are becoming more clear for Kentucky

Kentucky desperately needed a win in Starkville on Wednesday night to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with five games remaining. The Wildcats accomplished the mission at Humphrey Coliseum.

Behind a strong offensive performance that saw UK post 1.20 points per possession against a top-five Mississippi State defense, the Wildcats did just enough to leave Starkville with a 71-68 win. There is some good buzz around Kentucky basketball heading into Saturday’s home showdown with top-10 Tennessee.

Thanks to ESPN’s live shot of Joe Lunardi in the bracket bunker last night during the game broadcast, we know exactly where the Wildcats stand for the NCAA Tournament. But how are things looking for the SEC Tournament?

We’re diving into that right now.

Projected final standings

Following last night’s results, every team in the SEC has just five conference games left in the regular season. With 13 games of data (plus non-conference play), KenPom has run the numbers and spit out projected standings. Let’s check in on where things stand.

1. Alabama (16-2)
2. Tennessee (13-5)
3. Texas A&M (13-5)
4. Auburn (11-7)
5. Florida (10-8)
6. Missouri (10-8)
7. Kentucky (10-8)
8. Vanderbilt (9-9)
9. Arkansas (9-9)
10. Georgia (8-10)
11. Mississippi State (8-10)
12. Ole Miss (4-14)
13. LSU (3-15)
14. South Carolina (3-15)

As of right now, Kentucky finds itself in a three-way tie with Florida and Missouri. However, the Cats are projected to go 1-1 against the Gators with a game in Gainesville on Feb. 22. UK has a loss to Missouri in the only meeting of the season. Due to the 1-2 projected record, that would put Kentucky into the No. 7 seed where a showdown with Tennessee would likely take place on Friday night in Nashville.

Injury to Colin Castleton changes thing

Under first-year head coach Todd Golden, Florida is 14-12 (7-6) and is projected to be the betting favorite in 4 of their last 5 games to close the season. The Gators have big home win over Tennessee on their resume, but are very much on he outside looking in of the bubble.

The fact that Golden’s first squad is even in contention says a lot about Colin Castleton. The super senior might be the best true center in college basketball this season leading the team in points (16.0), rebounds (7.7), blocks (3.0), and steals (0.9). Castleton ranks second on the team in assists (2.7) and minutes (31.2). The 6-11 is the anchor of a top-20 defense that ranks No. 8 in two-point field goal percentage (43.6%) and does a good job of running foes off the three-point line. Castleton has a lot to do with this as the defense is built to funnel action his way so his elite rim protection can be a factor in every game.

Unfortunately, that rim protection and offensive production was all lost in Florida’s win over Ole Miss on Wednesday night when Castleton broke his hand. The former Michigan transfer is likely done for the season.

The Gators still have to go to Arkansas, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Florida hosts Kentucky and LSU. A 1-4 finish seems very possible. That’s significant for Kentucky as the Cats will have a great shot at recording a solid road win on Feb. 22.

Auburn vs. Kentucky looms large

With the Castleton injury likely to sink Florida and consecutive losses for Arkansas dropping the Hogs to 6-7 in league play, it feels likely that 11-7 will lock up the final double-bye spot and No. 4 seed behind Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas A&M.

That is currently a three-team race between Auburn, Kentucky, and Missouri. On Tuesday, Mizzou (7-6) was throttled by Auburn as the Tigers from CoMo finished 1-1 in their round robin between these three teams.

That means Kentucky must beat Auburn on Feb. 25 to have a shot at locking up the No. 4 seed.

Missouri has a very manageable schedule with the last three games coming against sub-100 competition. With home games against Texas A&M and Mississippi State up next, a 4-1 finish seems likely for Dennis Gates’ club. That would get Mizzou to 11-7 in SEC play.

Auburn (8-5) has a tougher road with road trips to Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt still remaining. Plus a home date with Tennessee. We all know what UK’s schedule looks like.

For Kentucky to have a chance at the No. 4 spot, the Cats must beat Auburn at home. However, Missouri owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Wildcats. If it ends up being those two deadlocked at 11-7, UK will be playing a Thursday at the SEC Tournament for the second time in three seasons. If you’re looking for something to root for, Kentucky could benefit from Missouri losing a couple of games over the last two weeks of the regular season.

We now know Kentucky’s range

If Kentucky were to win out, that would get the Cats to 13-5 in league play. That could be good enough for the No. 2 seed as the Wildcats would own all tiebreakers over Tennessee and Texas A&M in that scenario. However, that seems unlikely as the Cats will be a dog twice before the season ends and has what will a true 50/50 toss up against Auburn at home.

A 4-1 or 3-2 finish seems most likely for the Wildcats at this point barring another home meltdown similar to the Arkansas and South Carolina losses. Using that projection, it tells us exactly where Kentucky could land.

At 12-6 with a 4-1 finish, Kentucky will have locked up the No. 4 seed and have a double-bye. A win over Missouri or Auburn on Friday would likely setup up a meeting with No. 1 Alabama on Saturday afternoon. At 11-7, Kentucky could be anywhere from No. 4 to No. 6 depending on the tiebreakers with Auburn and Missouri. The No. 6 seed would have to play the 10:00 p.m. ET/9:00 p.m. CT game both Thursday and Friday. That is not what you want in this tournament.

Kentucky has a chance to close strong with some Quadrant 1 wins and get a double bye. Now the Cats just have to go make it happen.