Missouri is surging, Kentucky takes step back in SEC Tournament seeding race

Kentucky’s win on Tuesday against Tennessee on the road was a big one. The Wildcats were putting themselves in position to make a run at a double-bye for the SEC Tournament in the final 11 games of the conference race.

But a home loss and a road win from another SEC team changes things as we reach the halfway point in league play.

Missouri blew the doors off of Mississippi State on Saturday for a big road win and Kentucky dropped a home game as a double-digit favorite to Arkansas. That has put the Wildcats behind the eight-ball in the SEC race. Both Missouri and Texas A&M are projected to finish multiple games ahead of the Wildcats.

Kentucky needs to stack some wins together fast.

Current standings

1. Auburn (8-0)
2. Alabama (8-1)
3. Missouri (6-2)
4. Texas A&M (6-3)
5. Florida (5-3)
6. Ole Miss (5-4)
7. Tennessee (5-4)
8. Vanderbilt (4-4)
9. Kentucky (4-4)
10. Texas (4-5)
11. Mississippi State (4-5)
12. Oklahoma (3-5)
13. Georgia (3-6)
14. Arkansas (2-6)
15. LSU (1-7)
16. South Carolina (0-9)

Kentucky would be forced to play on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament against South Carolina in a play-in game if the regular season ended today. The winner would face Vanderbilt on Thursday afternoon in Nashville in the 8-9 game. Auburn, Alabama, Missouri, and Texas A&M hold the double-bye spots. The contest between A&M and Mizzou on Saturday in Columbia looms large.

The Wildcats are four games out of first place and one loss back for the final double-bye spot.

Projected SEC standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners. There are seven projected to reach double-digit wins, but getting to 11 wins feels like the magic number to secure a double-bye spot.

That means Kentucky would need to go 7-3 over the final 10 games of conference play. The Wildcats have some work to do as the floor is now playing on Wednesday in Nashville.

1. Auburn (16-2)
2. Alabama (13-5)
3. Missouri (12-6)
4. Florida (12-6)
5. Tennessee (11-7)
6. Texas A&M (11-7)
7. Ole Miss (10-8)
8. Texas (9-9)
9. Kentucky (9-9)
10. Mississippi State (8-10)
11. Georgia (7-11)
12. Oklahoma (7-11)
13. Vanderbilt (7-11)
14. Arkansas (6-12)
15. LSU (4-14)
16. South Carolina (2-16)