Shai Gilgeous-Alexander undervalued because of UK's system, says ESPN insider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a lottery pick in the 2018 NBA Draft and is now one of the league’s brightest young stars. One ESPN insider is ready to admit why he didn’t see that coming, and it includes a familiar critique of John Calipari.

Today, ESPN’s panel of NBA insiders — Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz, and Kevin Pelton — released a list of the six NBA players they missed the mark on with draft evaluations. Pelton includes Shai as the one he rated too low. Pelton ranked Shai No. 14 on his list of prospects ahead of the 2018 draft, three spots below where the former Cat came off the board (No. 11 to Charlotte, traded to LA Clippers). Now that Shai is a star in Oklahoma City, averaging a career-high 24.5 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.0 rebounds this season, Pelton is ready to admit his mistake. He said he didn’t rank Shai higher because he only evaluated his career at Kentucky, during which the guard didn’t get to showcase his full arsenal of skills.

Although Gilgeous-Alexander’s stats in his one season at Kentucky were certainly not bad, neither did they scream future star. He ranked 20th in my consensus projections and 37th in the stats-only version. However, a Wildcats team with limited floor spacing (Kevin Knox was the only UK starter to make even one 3-pointer per game and frontcourt starters Nick Richards and P.J. Washington combined to make just five 3s) didn’t allow SGA to take full advantage of his quickness and playmaking.

This was a case in which Jonathan [Givony] and Mike [Schmitz] had a clear advantage thanks to scouting Gilgeous-Alexander back to the youth level. Mike was especially high on SGA, and it took me about five minutes watching him in a different setting at NBA summer league to see why. Gilgeous-Alexander was instantly successful as a rookie on a competitive LA Clippers team and now looks like a future star for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Although the challenge of limited floor spacing for super-quick guards is a universal one in college hoops, it’s one that seems especially important to understand when scouting perimeter prospects from Kentucky — many of whom have outperformed their projections in the pros. 

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This isn’t the first time an ESPN insider has criticized John Calipari’s offense. Jonathan Givony has repeatedly questioned Calipari’s system, most memorably in his evaluation of BJ Boston and most recently after Kentucky’s loss to Saint Peter’s.

This is a constant theme the entire game. Saint Peter's just sagging off all of Kentucky's non-shooters (Wheeler, Toppin, Tshiebwe, and the ice-cold Grady) and then collapsing the entire defense on every drive. The defense was just as bad tonight, but this surely didn't help. pic.twitter.com/iEMZv6ROr4

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 18, 2022

Oscar about to get triple-teamed, so he kicks to a guy who doesn't want to shoot (Brooks), who is then doubled off another guy that can't shoot (Wheeler). This is how a No. 2 seed loses to a No. 15 seed. pic.twitter.com/vNd0PHo8bJ

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 18, 2022

There were more factors to the loss to Saint Peter’s — lingering injuries to TyTy Washington, Sahvir Wheeler, and Kellan Grady most notably — but it’s clear this narrative isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.