Small Preakness Field Offers Limited Opportunities for Big Winners

Saturday evening Mage will race for history in the Preakness Stakes. The Kentucky Derby winner can turn this spring into a Triple Crown campaign with a win Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. The odds are in Mage’s favor against an historically weak field.

Mage is the only starter from the Kentucky Derby that traveled to Pimlico to race for the Black-eyed Susans. It’s the first time since Citation dominated the Triple Crown in 1948 that only one Derby runner made it to the Preakness.

Similar to his Derby win, a late scratch has weakened the field even further. First Mission defeated Disarm in its third career start at Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes. Expected to improve in the Preakness, it was setting up to be a two-horse race. Instead, Friday morning vets scratched the Brad Cox trained horse from running in the Preakness Stakes, shrinking the field to only seven horses, the smallest since 1986.

Mage was an 8-5 morning line favorite. The absence of First Mission, the second choice at 5-2, means you’ll get the Kentucky Derby winner at an even shorter price.

Unlike the 20-horse field in the Kentucky Derby, this is not an ideal race to try to hit it big with an exotic bet. However, there are some strategies you can use with the right horses to cash a nice ticket on Preakness Saturday. Here are some candidates to use underneath Mage in your trifectas and superfectas.

Red Route One, 10-1

Joel Rosario will be on the mount for Steve Asmussen. This horse was consistently a bridesmaid in the spring season, finishing second twice before completely bouncing in the Arkansas Derby, taking him off the Kentucky Derby trail. He bounced back with his first win as a three-year-old, using lasix to come-from-behind and win at Oaklawn Park. Even though it’s unable to use lasix on Saturday, this late closer should like the extra distance at a 1 3/16 miles and finish in the money.

National Treasure, 4-1

This horse will be the new second choice in First Mission’s absence, thanks to his trainer, Bob Baffert. The maligned Hall of Famer has seven Preakness Stakes victories, more than any other Triple Crown race.

Despite decent figures, I’m fading National Treasure. We probably saw this horse at its best as a 2-year-old and even then, it wasn’t all that great. This horse will not be a great price and has shown me enough to believe it’s worth wagering on this weekend.

Coffeewithchris, 20-1

Quick out of the gate, in almost every one of this horse’s starts he is taking the lead. It’s a strategy that’s rarely resulted in wins, however, it might be enough in this race to hit the board. Mage and Red Route One have closed incredibly well in recent wins. To set up a closer, ideally there’s a fast pace off the jump that tires out the competition. The early preps ran a slow pace. Coffeewithchris can take the lead without asking for much from the horse. A forwardly placed horse might be able to hang on long enough to hit the board at a huge number.

The Preakness Play

$5 Trifecta (costs $10): Mage over Red Route One/Coffeewithchris and Red Route One/Coffewithchris

The Preakness Stakes is the shortest leg of the Triple Crown at 1 3/16 miles. The 7-horse field will race for a $1.5 million purse. Post time is set for 6:50 pm EST Saturday, May 20. Coverage begins on NBC at 4:30 pm EST. For more on the race, tune into KSR’s Preakness Breakdown with handicapping expert Peter T. Fornatale.