South Region Preview: Is Auburn Built for March?
The road to the Final Four is paved through Lexington. Rupp Arena hosts opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament, where No. 1 overall seed Auburn will hold court in the South Region. The biggest storyline across the Bluegrass is the team that potentially awaits in the second round. Louisville fell to a No. 8 seed, but the Cards could have a home-court advantage at the home of the Wildcats.
KSR is taking a closer look at what could be a chaotic region in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
The Bracket
South Region Schedule
Tuesday
| Time (ET) | Game | TV / Stream |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | (16) Saint Francis vs. (16) Alabama State Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein | truTV |
| 9:10 p.m. | (11) North Carolina vs. (11) San Diego State Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein | truTV |
Thursday
| Time (ET) | Game | TV |
|---|---|---|
| 12:15 p.m. | (9) Creighton vs. (8) Louisville Brian Anderson / Jim Jackson // Allie LaForce | CBS |
| 2:50 p.m. | (16) Saint Francis/Alabama St. vs. (1) Auburn Brian Anderson / Jim Jackson // Allie LaForce | CBS |
| 7:25 p.m. | (13) Yale vs. (4) Texas A&M Brad Nessler / Brendan Haywood // Dana Jacobson | TBS |
| 10:00p.m. | (12) UC San Diego vs. (5) Michigan Brad Nessler / Brendan Haywood // Dana Jacobson | TBS |
Friday
| Time (ET) | Game | TV |
|---|---|---|
| 1:30 p.m. | (14) Lipscomb vs. (3) Iowa State Kevin Harlan / Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy // Lauren Shehadi | TNT |
| 4:05 p.m. | (11) North Carolina/SDSU vs. (6) Ole Miss Kevin Harlan / Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy // Lauren Shehadi | TNT |
| 7:25 p.m. | 10) New Mexico vs. (7) Marquette Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein | TBS |
| 10:00 p.m. | (15) Bryant vs. (2) Michigan State Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein | TBS |
Efficiency rankings
Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.
| Team | Overall | Offense | Defense |
| Auburn (1) | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| Michigan State (2) | 8 | 27 | 5 |
| Iowa State (3) | 10 | 20 | 99 |
| Texas A&M (4) | 17 | 44 | 7 |
| Louisville (8) | 23 | 29 | 21 |
| Michigan (5) | 25 | 47 | 14 |
| Ole Miss (6) | 26 | 31 | 25 |
| Marquette (7) | 28 | 32 | 28 |
| North Carolina (11) | 33 | 22 | 53 |
| UC San Diego (12) | 36 | 57 | 30 |
| Creighton (9) | 37 | 34 | 42 |
| New Mexico (10) | 41 | 79 | 19 |
| San Diego State (11) | 46 | 111 | 13 |
| Yale (13) | 73 | 59 | 117 |
| Lipscomb (14) | 83 | 75 | 100 |
| Bryant (15) | 149 | 178 | 148 |
| Alabama State (16) | 273 | 270 | 256 |
| Saint Francis (16) | 311 | 299 | 293 |
South Region Shot Chart
Team capsules
1.) Auburn
Led by SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome, the most dominant team in all of college basketball logged an eye-opening 16 Quad 1 wins. Those wins were harder to find for Bruce Pearl’s squad at the end of the season. Auburn lost back-to-back games to end the regular season, then suffered a 70-65 loss to Tennessee in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament. Will that serve as a wake-up call or a premonition of an ill-fated ending to one of the most memorable seasons in Auburn history?
2.) Michigan State
Tom Izzo has been to eight Final Fours in his coaching career. Oddly enough, his most talented teams are typically the ones that stumble early, but he finds ways to make deep runs with groups that fly under the radar. This year’s team is somewhere in the middle. They don’t feature a bunch of future NBA stars, but were clearly the class of the Big Ten, grinding their way to a regular season title.
3.) Iowa State
If you thought Kentucky had bad injury luck, let me tell you about Iowa State. The Cyclones had a 16-point halftime lead over Auburn in Maui. They looked like a legitimate Final Four contender when the injury bug bit. Point guard Tamin Lipsey suffered a groin injury in the Big 12 Tournament, but he’s expected to be back. The same cannot be said for Keshon Gilbert, the team’s second-leading scorer and a third team All-Big 12 selection. T.J. Otzelberger announced he will miss March Madness after the bracket was drawn. Sensational stretch-four Milan Momcilovic will carry a heavy burden on his shoulders for the Cylones to advance through the South Region.
4.) Texas A&M
Prepare to see Buzz Williams sweat and call an excessive amount of timeouts. Texas A&M plays exceptional defense and is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They attack the boards because they aren’t great shooters. One potential exception is Wade Taylor IV, the school’s all-time leading scorer. He’s a high-volume shooter who could get hot and carry A&M to the second weekend for the first time since 2018.
5.) Michigan
Dusty May led a dramatic turnaround in year one at Michigan. The Wolverines won eight games last season. On Sunday, they won the Big Ten Tournament. Nobody has a 7-foot combo like Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, however, it’s easy to see why many are skeptical of their chances in the South Region. They’ll travel to play in Denver’s elevation on short rest after squeaking by with close wins in Big Ten play. They have the second-highest “luck” rating in KenPom of any power conference team in the NCAA Tournament.
6.) Ole Miss
Chris Beard has quickly raised the floor in Oxford. Nobody in college basketball does a better job taking care of the ball than Ole Miss and they’ve got a top 25 defense that isn’t afraid to play physical basketball. Their biggest issue is on the other end. Ole Miss is an average shooting team and the worst offensive rebounding team in the SEC.
7.) Marquette
We’re still waiting on Marquette to win one of those big games. They went 6-8 in Quad 1s, but it felt like every time they were on the verge of asserting themselves as one of the better teams in the country, they’d let it slip away in the final minutes (or in St. John’s case, in the final seconds). They do have one thing going for them. Kam Jones is one of the most electric players in the country and is more than capable of putting the team on his back this March.
8.) Louisville
The Cardinal tears are flowing from Louisville fans who cannot believe they’re playing in an 8-9 game after advancing to the program’s first-ever ACC Title. We can make fun of them and their terrible conference at another time. Terrence Edwards and Chucky Hepburn are exceptional guards, creating one of the best backcourts in the country. The issue is inside and Duke made them pay dearly for their lack of size and athleticism. James Scott has a cool facemask, but he’s gonna be in trouble against Ryan Kalkbrenner (and if they’re lucky, Johni Broome).
9.) Creighton
When the Blue Jays are knocking down threes, they’re a hard team to beat. That’s because 7-1 senior Ryan Kalkbrenner is still holding down the fort in the paint. He’s averaging 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. In the opening round of the Big East Tournament, he put up a casual 32-9. They don’t make ’em like Kalkbrenner anymore.
10.) New Mexico
The Lobos were a popular pick to win in the NCAA Tournament a year ago. They don’t have the same buzz, but they actually have a better defense, ranking 19th ahead of the NCAA Tournament. This year’s team also has a guy by the name of Donovan Dent, a 20-point per game scorer who’s destined to become a household name after a nuclear night in the South Region.
11.) North Carolina
Everyone is thrilled that the Tar Heels are in the Big Dance after loading up their resume with Quad 1 wins. Joking aside, they did play a lot of great teams in the non-conference, they just didn’t beat any. The Tar Heels have been playing better as of late, and after all of the hay was made about their spot in the NCAA Tournament, you shouldn’t be surprised if they win a couple of games out of spite.
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11.) San Diego State
Brian Dutcher has the Aztecs back in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight season because it plays classic Brian Dutcher basketball. They move at a snail’s pace (No. 245 in tempo) and play great defense (No. 6 in effective FG% and No. 1 in block rate). Only two Aztecs average double-figures in scoring, Nick Boyd (13.4) and Miles Byrd (12.6).
12.) UC San Diego
This No. 12 seed might be the most popular upset pick because of their style of play. They rank in the Top 10 nationally in turnovers forced and committed, and they shoot A TON of threes, which is a big reason why they have the nation’s longest active win streak (15). Aninwaniwa Tait-Jones, a 6-foot-6 wing, is the straw that stirs their drink. He leads the team in scoring (19.5), rebounds (5.5), and assists (3.7).
13.) Yale
The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in four years. Last year, the nation rejoiced when they sent Bruce Pearl packing after a stunning 78-76 first round upset. Repeating that Cinderella story sounds easier than it actually is, especially when Danny Wolf is now a Wolverine. Yale still has Ivy League Player of the Year Bez Mbeng, who is actually the team’s second-leading scorer (13.4 ppg) behind John Poulakidas (19.3 ppg).
14.) Lipscomb
Kentucky fans saw Lipscomb up close and personal this year when the Cats handed the Bisons a 29-point loss. Yes, that’s Bisons with an s. In addition to the game against Kentucky, they also traveled to play Arkansas, a 16-point loss, but they did knock off another NCAA Tournament team, Wofford. Lipscomb had the best offense and second-best defense in the ASUN, even though they played at the league’s slowest pace. They’re one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country.
15.) Bryant
Bryant is in the NCAA Tournament for the second time, but the first as a member of the America East. They won the NEC in 2022 and lost in the First Four to Wright State. Their coach has a famous name. Phil Martelli Jr.’s Dad coached in seven NCAA Tournaments over 24 seasons at St. Joe’s.
16.) Alabama State
The Hornets from the SWAC aren’t great at a lot of things, but one thing they do well is take care of the ball. They have the fifth-best turnover rate in all of college basketball. The No. 5 seed in the SWAC Tournament upset No. 2 seed Jackson State 60-56 to reach the Big Dance for the first time since 2011.
16.) Saint Francis
We have a sub-.500 team in the NCAA Tournament. Saint Francis was the No. 3 seed in the NEC Tournament with an 8-8 record. Their first trip to the Big Dance since 1991 allowed the world to learn the Red Flash have the most terrifying mascot in the NCAA Tournament, Frankie the Friar.
South Region Odds
The No. 1 overall seed is a short price to reach San Antonio, according to FanDuel. An upset by Louisville at Rupp Arena could shake things up, which is why they’re at a much shorter price than their seed-line.
| Team | Odds to win the South |
| Auburn | +100 |
| Michigan State | +470 |
| Iowa State | +550 |
| Texas A&M | +1200 |
| Louisville | +1800 |
| Ole Miss | 21/1 |
| Michigan | 24/1 |
| Marquette | 24/1 |
| Creighton | 32/1 |
| North Carolina | 37/1 |
| UC San Diego | 50/1 |
| New Mexico | 75/1 |
| San Diego State | 160/1 |
| Yale | 180/1 |
| Saint Francis | 250/1 |
| Alabama State | 250/1 |
| Bryant | 250/1 |
| Lipscomb | 250/1 |
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