Stoops in Season Openers: Historical Trends for Kentucky vs. Ball State

The Mark Stoops era kicked off 10 years ago with a hot, miserable loss in Nashville to Western Kentucky. The Wildcats have come a long way since that humiliating defeat to Bobby Petrino.

Since suffering a loss in his first season-opener as the Kentucky head football coach, Mark Stoops has only lost twice in the first game of the season. In the COVID-plagued 2020 season, the opener went sideways when Chris Rodriguez was not awarded a touchdown after crossing into the end zone. The Wildcats went on to fall to Auburn 29-13. The other loss was a memorable, program-changer in 2016. Kentucky blew a 25-point first half lead and Drew Barker suffered what would be a career-ending injury in a 44-35 defeat to Southern Miss.

For those doing the math at home, Stoops is 7-3 straight up in season-opening games. Over his first decade in Lexington, the Kentucky head coach has a .648 winning percentage at Kroger Field. The Cats have won 13 of their last 17 games at Kroger Field. Kentucky has claimed 16 straight regular season victories over non-conference opponents.

The season-opening struggles early in Stoops’ tenure created a narrative around the BBN that the Kentucky head coach rarely covers the spread against inferior foes. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. Kentucky is a 26.5-point favorite over Ball State with a total of 48.5. Kickoff is at noon on the SEC Network.

Ball State vs. Power Five Programs

Ball State head coach Mike Neu is entering his eighth season at his alma mater. Only two coaches in the MAC have been around longer, Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton and Miami’s Chuck Martin, who are each entering year ten in the league.

Last year the Cardinals came up one win shy of going to a third straight bowl game for the first time in school history. The greatest achievement of Neu’s tenure was upsetting Buffalo in 2020 to win the MAC Championship.

The Cardinals’ success in the MAC has not translated over to the field against Power Five opponents. Neu is 0-8 against such foes and the Cardinals are 0-11 all-time against SEC opponents. That includes a 59-10 season-opening loss at Tennessee in 2022. Following this week’s trip to Lexington, Ball State will travel to Georgia.

This is just the second ever meeting between Kentucky and Ball State. The Cardinals out-gained the Cats by 65 yards and had 10 more first downs, but Chad Scott had 119 yards rushing and Derek Abney caught one of Shane Boyd’s two touchdown passes to help Guy Morris’ squad leave Commonwealth Stadium with a 28-20 win back in 2001.