TeamRankings.com Thinks a 5 Seed is the Most Likely Option For UK
[caption id="attachment_152787" align="alignnone" width="600"]
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)[/caption]
After a crushing overtime loss to an Arkansas squad who entered Rupp Arena as a 10-point underdog, Kentucky must look to the future and prepare for what lies ahead. Of course, preparation for the future will prove difficult as the Cats have looked wildly inconsistent throughout the entire season. Planning will prove difficult in the coming weeks given our inconsistencies, but something which will inevitably be prepped for in the coming weeks is the NCAA Tournament. Our seeding undoubtedly took a hit last night after a home loss to one of collegiate basketball's worst road coaches - but just how big of a hit did we sustain? While any number of Bracketologists can tell you where a team stands right now, TeamRankings.com has developed a formula to give the most probable future seeding based upon dozens of factors.
If you're unfamiliar, TeamRankings.com is a site that specializes in statistics, odds-making, and computer modeling. This season, for their NCAA Tournament coverage, they've unveiled a system that not only predicts the likelihood of making the tournament, but one that gives odds on earning a certain seed as well. Whereas a typical Bracket Guru will tell you where a team currently stands, TeamRankings.com runs hundreds of simulations with every D-1 team's remaining schedule to project the odds of obtaining a certain seed. After last night's home loss to Arkansas, Kentucky's most likely tournament set-up is a 5 seed at the present time. Below, you'll see our current probabilities of earning any possible seed in the tournament.
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Data via TeamRankings.com (Post-Arkansas - as of 2/28/14)[/caption]
At the moment, Kentucky has a 1-in-4 chance of earning a 5 seed according to Team Rankings. While there's certainly time to improve that projection, our schedule doesn't set up favorably for this to occur given our upcoming road-trip to Gainesville, Florida. As a result, our second most likely post-season set-up at this point is a 6 seed - Team Rankings gives this scenario a 1-in-5 chance of occurring. However, a 4 seed or above isn't out of the question if Kentucky can somehow march into Gainesville and pull off an upset while winning every other game in which we're favored. It is interesting (and sad) to note that the chances of earning a 3 seed or falling to an 8 seed have identical probability of occurring (6.7%). Now that we know where Kentucky stands according to computer simulations, just how much did the home loss to Arkansas hurt us? The probabilities below tell the tale.
[caption id="attachment_152815" align="alignnone" width="502"]
Data via TeamRankings.com (Pre-Arkansas - as of 2/27/14)[/caption]
Before last night's game, a 4 seed was the most probable option according to Team Rankings with a 28% chance of occurring. While a 5 seed was the second most probable tournament set-up, there was at least an outside shot of obtaining a very high seed before last night's game. However, statistically and logically speaking, those hopes have all but been erased at this point.
It's anyone's guess as to which seed Kentucky will earn for the up-coming NCAA Tournament. The team could use last night's loss as motivation and move forward or they could continue the downward trend. Given the way the season has trended thus far, I haven't seen much evidence that this loss will be used as a motivational springboard going forward. Who knows though, maybe this team will pull themselves up and out-perform their current 5 seed projection. While these projections paint a fairly accurate picture, the only thing that will tell us our seed with absolute certainty is time.
[TeamRankings.com's Kentucky NCAA Bracketology profile]
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)[/caption]
After a crushing overtime loss to an Arkansas squad who entered Rupp Arena as a 10-point underdog, Kentucky must look to the future and prepare for what lies ahead. Of course, preparation for the future will prove difficult as the Cats have looked wildly inconsistent throughout the entire season. Planning will prove difficult in the coming weeks given our inconsistencies, but something which will inevitably be prepped for in the coming weeks is the NCAA Tournament. Our seeding undoubtedly took a hit last night after a home loss to one of collegiate basketball's worst road coaches - but just how big of a hit did we sustain? While any number of Bracketologists can tell you where a team stands right now, TeamRankings.com has developed a formula to give the most probable future seeding based upon dozens of factors.
If you're unfamiliar, TeamRankings.com is a site that specializes in statistics, odds-making, and computer modeling. This season, for their NCAA Tournament coverage, they've unveiled a system that not only predicts the likelihood of making the tournament, but one that gives odds on earning a certain seed as well. Whereas a typical Bracket Guru will tell you where a team currently stands, TeamRankings.com runs hundreds of simulations with every D-1 team's remaining schedule to project the odds of obtaining a certain seed. After last night's home loss to Arkansas, Kentucky's most likely tournament set-up is a 5 seed at the present time. Below, you'll see our current probabilities of earning any possible seed in the tournament.
[caption id="attachment_152810" align="alignnone" width="500"] Data via TeamRankings.com (Post-Arkansas - as of 2/28/14)[/caption]
At the moment, Kentucky has a 1-in-4 chance of earning a 5 seed according to Team Rankings. While there's certainly time to improve that projection, our schedule doesn't set up favorably for this to occur given our upcoming road-trip to Gainesville, Florida. As a result, our second most likely post-season set-up at this point is a 6 seed - Team Rankings gives this scenario a 1-in-5 chance of occurring. However, a 4 seed or above isn't out of the question if Kentucky can somehow march into Gainesville and pull off an upset while winning every other game in which we're favored. It is interesting (and sad) to note that the chances of earning a 3 seed or falling to an 8 seed have identical probability of occurring (6.7%). Now that we know where Kentucky stands according to computer simulations, just how much did the home loss to Arkansas hurt us? The probabilities below tell the tale.
[caption id="attachment_152815" align="alignnone" width="502"] Data via TeamRankings.com (Pre-Arkansas - as of 2/27/14)[/caption]
Before last night's game, a 4 seed was the most probable option according to Team Rankings with a 28% chance of occurring. While a 5 seed was the second most probable tournament set-up, there was at least an outside shot of obtaining a very high seed before last night's game. However, statistically and logically speaking, those hopes have all but been erased at this point.
It's anyone's guess as to which seed Kentucky will earn for the up-coming NCAA Tournament. The team could use last night's loss as motivation and move forward or they could continue the downward trend. Given the way the season has trended thus far, I haven't seen much evidence that this loss will be used as a motivational springboard going forward. Who knows though, maybe this team will pull themselves up and out-perform their current 5 seed projection. While these projections paint a fairly accurate picture, the only thing that will tell us our seed with absolute certainty is time.
[TeamRankings.com's Kentucky NCAA Bracketology profile]
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