Nearly every trend points Tennessee's way in rivalry series with Kentucky

by:Adam Luckett•about 8 hours•

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NCAA Football: Tennessee at Kentucky — Oct 28, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (0) evades Tennessee Volunteers defenders during the fourth quarter at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky and Tennessee play in one of the longest-running series in college football. On Saturday night in Knoxville, the two SEC programs will meet for the 120th time on the gridiron. In a series that was once called the “Battle for the Barrel”, we’ve seen one team own the rivalry.

Tennessee has won 84 of the previous meetings and once held a 26-game winning streak in this series from 1985-2010. Kentucky finally ended the losing streak in 2011 but has only beaten Tennessee twice in the 12 meetings since. The Vols own this series in more ways than one.

Everyone knows that the Kentucky-Tennessee series is a one-sided rivalry. Even the cover percentage leans heavily towards the Vols.

These ATS numbers are glaring.

11 Personnel: https://t.co/Ajj6qCkIHI pic.twitter.com/xCRu5ZQhdQ
— Adam Luckett (@AdamLuckettKSR) October 31, 2024

Many of the against-the-spread (ATS) trends point Tennessee’s way heading into this Week 10 matchup where Kentucky is a 16.5-point underdog.

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Tennessee is 20-0 outright and 14-6 ATS as a home favorite under Josh Heupel
Tennessee is 25-7 ATS in this series over the last 3+ decades
Josh Heupel is 3-0 outright and 3-0 ATS versus Kentucky
Mark Stoops is 2-9 outright and 1-9-1 ATS versus Tennessee

Kentucky has only won once in Neyland Stadium since beating the Vols in 1984, and that occurred during the COVID-19 season. That happened to be the only time Kentucky covered in this series. Since that win, Tennessee owns an 11-2 edge in one-score games against Kentucky.

Literally everything leans toward the Big Orange in this series.

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