The 2023-2024 College Basketball Manifesto

We’ve made it, folks. The college basketball season tips off at 11:00 a.m. on Monday, November 6th for another winter featuring the greatest sport on the planet. This marks year four of releasing The College Basketball Manifesto here on Kentucky Sports Radio dot com. The goal is to provide you with a one-stop shop for everything you need to know about the upcoming season. If you love hoops, this is the article for you.

Admittedly, opening day doesn’t offer much in terms of elite matchups, but big games are coming very soon. Baylor and Auburn play on Tuesday night at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. Ohio State and Texas A&M face off on Friday evening. Over the weekend, the Asheville Championship will be played featuring Clemson, Davidson, Maryland, and UAB. Then, before we know it, we are fully into multi-team event season. We won’t have to wait long to get into the meat of the upcoming college basketball season.

Along with this manifesto, there is plenty of additional college basketball preview content to check out here on our website. We’ve broken down 25 of the biggest storylines heading into the season and taken closer looks at the Southeastern Conference specifically. You can find all of that via the links below.

• 5 Storylines 25 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 20 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 15 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 10 Days Out From College Basketball
• 5 Storylines 5 Days Out From College Basketball
• Southeastern Conference Player Power Rankings – Version 1.0 (Preseason)
• SEC Basketball Tiers – Version 1.0 (Preseason)

Whether you are looking for conference previews, NCAA Tournament predictions, All-American selections, coaches on the hot seat, or even some gambling futures, The College Basketball Manifesto has you covered. Let’s dive right in.

Predicting the Power Six Conferences

Everyone loves hearing about which mid-major conference might be a multi-bid league (looking at you Mountain West). It is fun to follow teams such as Drake, Charleston, and Eastern Kentucky that could become darlings of the college basketball landscape this season. Then, there is Florida Atlantic fresh off a trip to the Final Four with nearly everyone back taking a step up into the American Athletic Conference. However, the Blue Bloods and Power Conference schools are still the ones that move the needle. Here is a breakdown of the predicted winner of each Power Six league, along with a sleeper pick.

ACC

• Champion: Duke – There are several smart people who will tell you the Duke Blue Devils are the best team in the country this season. Coach Scheyer is in a unique position in year two as he brings back a projected lottery pick in Kyle Filipowski for his sophomore season. The 7’0″ forward averaged 15.1 points and 9.0 rebounds per game a year ago. He enters this season as a near consensus Preseason First Team All-American. Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor, and Mark Mitchell are all back as well. When you mix that returning talent with a top recruiting class featuring the likes of Caleb Foster, Jared McCain, TJ Power, and Sean Stewart it becomes clear why the Blue Devils aren’t just a threat to win the ACC, but could win the whole darn thing in Phoenix come April.
• Sleeper: North Carolina State – A talented, veteran backcourt and a fifth season of D.J. Burns down low should be enough to talk yourselves into the Wolfpack. Arizona State transfer DJ Horne will take over the reins at point guard next to returner Casey Morsell and Butler transfer Jayden Taylor. Those three will make up one of the sneaky best backcourts in the ACC. Burns is a load to handle inside and there is some depth, although unproven, up and down the lineup. Coach Keatts should be back to the NCAA Tournament once again this March.

Big 12

• Champion: Kansas – Similar to Duke outlined above, Kansas enters the 2023-2024 college basketball season in a unique position. They feature one of the best returning point guards in the country in Dajuan Harris Jr., the best transfer in portal history in Hunter Dickinson, and a strong recruiting class led by Elmarko Jackson. Young talent, returning production, star power from the transfer portal. Coach Bill Self has it all entering his 21st season as the Jayhawks boss. Houston will compete towards the top of the league right away after coming over from the AAC and Texas is a strong contender. However, as usual, the Big 12 runs through Lawrence.
• Sleeper: TCU – It isn’t easy replacing a guard as talented as Mike Miles Jr. However, Coach Jamie Dixon did as good of a job as possible by landing Jameer Nelson Jr. (Delaware) and Avery Anderson III (Oklahoma State) in the transfer portal. Those two, along with returning forward Emanuel Miller, will allow the Horned Frogs to not miss a beat offensively. Will this group perform at a Top 25 level defensively once again? That remains to be seen, but either way, TCU is a sneaky contender in the Big 12 and beyond this season.

Big East

• Champion: Marquette – The Golden Eagles won the Big East regular season and tournament championships last season. Eight of nine primary rotation players return from that team. Obviously, the UConn Huskies ultimately cut down the national championship nets. However, Marquette won two out of three head-to-head matchups. Returning that much talent, namely Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek, makes Coach Shaka Smart’s group an obvious pick to win this highly competitive league.
• Sleeper: Villanova – Considering Villanova a sleeper is probably cheating the exercise. However, when they went 17-17 overall and 10-10 in the Big East last season it would be hard to call them anything else. Coach Kyle Neptune had massive, stylish shoes to fill upon Jay Wright’s retirement and it didn’t go well in year one. However, Justin Moore is now healthy, Eric Dixon is back, and three highly talented, veteran transfers are joining the Wildcats. Washington State’s TJ Bamba, Maryland’s Hakim Heart, and Richmond’s Tyler Burton will all start right away for Villanova giving them an incredible starting five. Do not be surprised to see this group push themselves towards the very top of the Big East standings.

Big Ten

• Champion: Purdue – There are two schools of thought when breaking down the Purdue Boilermakers. On one hand, they return the National Player of the Year, their starting backcourt, and several up-and-coming depth pieces from a team that won the Big Ten by three games. However, on the other hand, they’ve been knocked out of the NCAA Tournament in subsequent years by a 13-seed, 15-seed, and 16-seed. Do we actually trust Coach Matt Painter and the Boilermakers? For the sake of picking a conference champion, yes. The best roster in the league in 2023-2024 will be found in West Lafayette.
• Sleeper: Wisconsin – Few, if any, teams across college basketball will feature the lineup continuity Coach Greg Gard has this season. All five Badger starters return including nine of their 10 leading scorers. Connor Essegian had an excellent freshman season averaging 11.7 points and emerged as one of the better shooters in the Big 10. Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl are back in the front court which features the addition of talented freshmen Gus Yalden and Nolan Winter. St. John’s transfer AJ Storr will add some additional shooting to the Wisconsin backcourt as well. This team will be back in the Big Dance come March.

Pac 12

• Champion: Arizona – Year two of the Coach Tommy Lloyd era ended in disappointing fashion as Arizona was upset by 15-seed Princeton after a 28-win regular season. 7’0″ center Oumar Ballo is back to anchor things around the basket after averaging 14.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, the Wildcats landed two high-profile transfers in Caleb Love from North Carolina and Keshad Johnson from San Diego State. They will each, along with Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley, will be instant impact pieces for Coach Lloyd.
• Sleeper: Colorado – This team is likely overqualified to be considered a sleeper, but most people don’t think about Colorado basketball very often. This season, they will feature a potential NBA lottery pick in Cody Williams. KJ Simpson and Tristan Da Silva return as one of the best inside-outside duos in the Pac-12. If those two can play to an all-conference level, and Williams plays to his potential, the Buffaloes will be going dancing.

SEC

• Champion: Tennessee – It is a fool’s errand to make too much out of October basketball games that don’t ultimately count for anything. However, Tennessee went to East Lansing and beat preseason #4 Michigan State 89-88. For further context, they did that without their All-SEC backcourt of Zakai Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi. The addition of Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht makes this Volunteers team that much more potent offensively to go with an always tough defense.
• Sleeper: Florida – The Gators will be a trendy pick for a “surprise” SEC team after finishing 16-17 a year ago. However, Coach Todd Golden earned it after an excellent offseason. He went to the portal and landed MAAC Player of the Year Walter Clayton Jr., Sun Belt Rookie of the Year Micah Handlogten, Seton Hall transfer Tyrese Samuel, and UC Riverside transfer Zyon Pullin. Riley Kugel and Will Richard return too. Florida has a talented roster, but depth will be a concern.

Mid-Majors Worth Following

Kansas enters the season with three returning starters and the addition of Hunter Dickinson. Duke got potential NBA lottery pick Kyle Filipowski to return for his sophomore season. Zach Edey returned to Purdue after winning National Player of the Year. Expectations are high once again in Lexington and Tom Izzo has a Top 10 team in East Lansing. Traditional powers and Blue Bloods are alive and well in college basketball. However, a lot of what makes the sport great is the mid-major programs that make themselves known in March. Who are the teams that could play the role of Cinderella this season? Let’s take a look.

• Charleston Cougars. Coach Pat Kelsey led the Cougars to 31 wins last season and played eventual national runner-up San Diego State very well in the first round. Lafayette transfer CJ Fulton could be the best point guard in the CAA, Frankie Policelli from Stony Brook is a skilled 4-man, and 6’10” Ante Brzovic is back as a potential First Team All-CAA performer. These guys are going to be very, very good once again.
• Drake Bulldogs. Fresh off winning Missouri Valley Player of the Year, Tucker DeVries returns for his junior season. The 6’7″ guard averaged 18.6 points per game while shooting 37.3% from three-point range. Bradley will be very good once again and Belmont is always tough, but look for the Bulldogs to go dancing for the third time in four seasons. This might be the best true mid-major team in college basketball this season.
• Eastern Kentucky Colonels. In the transfer portal era what we saw from Eastern Kentucky this offseason was unheard of. Coach Hamilton’s entire squad announced together they were returning for another year. There won’t be a team in college basketball with more lineup continuity and that will be enough to push Eastern Kentucky into the NCAA Tournament. Now sophomores, Tayshawn Comer and Leland Walker will give the Colonels one of the best backcourts that you haven’t heard of yet.
• Grand Canyon Antelopes. What do you get when you mix an excellent mid-major transfer portal class with a returning backcourt as good as Jovan Blacksher and Rayshon Harrison? Most likely, you’ll get a NCAA Tournament team. Harrison will be the league’s preseason Player of the Year after averaging 17.8 points per game last season. He is joined by the likes of Tyon Grant-Foster (DePaul), Sydney Curry (Kansas), Lok Wur (Oregon), Caleb Shaw (Northern Colorado), and Duke Brennan (Arizona State) who made up Coach Drew’s transfer class. There are a lot of moving parts with this group, but they will absolutely feature the most talented roster in the WAC.
• Yale Bulldogs. Yale tied for first place in the Ivy League but lost to Princeton in the tournament championship before the Tigers made an improbable run to the Sweet 16. Still, the Bulldogs were a Top 75 KenPom team and returned four starters including preseason Ivy League Player of the Year Matt Knowling. Coach James Jones should go dancing this year.
• The Race Atop the MAC. Okay, this isn’t a team, but it is a conference race that will be fun to follow. Toledo took home the MAC regular season last year with a 16-2 record while second-place Kent State punched its ticket to the Big Dance with a MAC Tournament title. The Rockets lost a ton, but are a stalwart near the top of this league. Kent State has plenty to replace as well, but MAC Freshman of the Year Reggie Bass who comes over from Central Michigan is a helpful addition. Coach Jeff Boals’ Ohio Bobcats return seven rotation pieces and will once again be one of the best shooting teams in the country. However, it’ll be the Akron Zips who, despite the graduation of Xavier Castaneda, will be the team to beat in the MAC. They will feature one of the best mid-major front courts you can find with Ali Ali and Enrique Freeman. Sammy Hunter provides depth at the position as well.
• Marques Warrick. Every year, we like to pick one mid-major player to follow closely here as part of the College Basketball Manifesto. Warrick, a three-time All-Horizon League performer, will be that player this season. The Northern Kentucky guard has already scored 1,589 points in his three-year career and should easily surpass the 2,000-point milestone this season. Warrick is one of the best shooters in the country and will look to lead the Norse to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances.

NCAA Tournament Picks

If you want in-depth bracketology, this isn’t where you are going to find it. There is simply no need to dive too deeply into a tournament field that won’t be selected for over five months. However, we can go ahead and take a stab at which major conference teams will go dancing in March. Also, preseason Final Four picks will be given below.

• ACC: Clemson, Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia
• Big 12: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
• Big East: Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Villanova, Xavier
• Big Ten: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
• Pac 12: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, UCLA, USC
• SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M
• Final Four: Duke, Creighton, Kansas, Michigan State

All-American Selections

First Team

• Tyler Kolek: Senior Guard, Marquette
• Terrence Shannon Jr.: Fifth Year Guard, Illinois
• Kyle Filipowski: Sophomore Forward, Duke
• Hunter Dickinson: Senior Center, Kansas
• Zach Edey: Senior Center, Purdue

Second Team

• Max Abmas: Fifth Year Guard, Texas
• Boo Buie: Graduate Student Guard, Northwestern
• LJ Cryer: Senior Guard, Houston
• Armando Bacot: Fifth Year Center, North Carolina
• Ryan Kalkbrenner: Senior Center, Creighton

Third Team

• Tyson Walker: Fifth Year Guard, Michigan State
• Nijel Pack: Senior Guard, Miami (FL)
• Antonio Reeves: Fifth Year Guard, Kentucky
• Bryce Hopkins: Senior Forward, Providence
• Donovan Clingan: Sophomore Center, UConn

Coaches on the Hot Seat

This isn’t the most fun section to write. However, it is a staple of the College Basketball Manifesto each year. Nobody wants to see a coach get fired, but it is a necessary evil of the sport. Here are five coaches who enter the 2023-2024 college basketball season with something to prove.

• Brad Brownell, Clemson: It wouldn’t be a College Basketball Manifesto without talking about Coach Brownell’s hot seat status. The Tigers have toiled in mediocrity for nearly all of his 13-year tenure. Winning 23 games bought him another year, but missing the NCAA Tournament likely left fans wanting more. If Coach Brownell doesn’t go dancing this finally could be it for him.
• Leonard Hamilton, Florida State: No, Coach Hamilton is not getting fired. At least not in the traditional sense. However, there could be a mutual agreement to “let” the Seminoles legend retire. From 2017-2021 Florida State had things rolling. Then, it all came to a screeching halt. A 17-14 season in 2022 was followed by an ugly 9-23 record a year ago. Recruiting has taken a serious hit and Coach Hamilton hasn’t seemed to figure out the transfer portal. It might be time for the 76-year-old to move on.
• Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska: Similar to Coach Brownell, Coach Hoiberg was in this exact spot one year ago. A 16-16 season, including a 9-11 mark in the loaded Big Ten, was enough to buy him another year. However, anything short of .500 could spark a change. Through four seasons he is 40-83 overall and 18-61 in the Big Ten.
• Kenny Payne, Louisville: You don’t normally see coaches enter hot-seat territory after just one season. That is even more true when dealing with a well-liked alum who won a national championship as a player at the school. However, that is the situation Coach Payne finds himself in after one of the worst high-major seasons we’ve seen in a while. Another exhibition loss to a Division II school didn’t do him any preseason favors.
• Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State: A random Elite Eight trip in 2021 landed Coach Tinkle a big contract extension. However, since then, it has been a disaster. The Beavers followed up their Elite Eight appearance by winning just three games in 2022. Then, last season, they went 11-21. Expectations are not high this time around either. This will likely be it in Corvallis for Coach Tinkle.

Favorite College Basketball Futures

All right, let’s talk gambling for a few minutes. Below are five of the best value preseason futures bets that you can make for the upcoming college basketball season. Let’s cash some tickets. All odds are from our friends at FanDuel.

• Drake to win the Missouri Valley Conference Regular Season +220. Sometimes the favorite is a favorite for a reason. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t still some value. In the Missouri Valley, you can get one of the best true mid-major programs in college basketball at +220 odds. Run, don’t walk, and put some money on this one.
• Dayton to win the Atlantic 10 Conference Regular Season +300. Similar to the reasoning above with Drake. Dayton is the best team in the Atlantic 10. VCU isn’t the VCU of last year. Meanwhile, Dayton returns potential A-10 Player of the Year in DaRon Holmes II and talented point guard Malachi Smith. +300 is a steal here.
• Purdue to win the Maui Invitational +340. If you had to select a college basketball team to play the aliens and save Earth tomorrow, you’d probably pick the Purdue Boilermakers. We just know what they are. They have a 7’4″ freak of nature at center. In the backcourt, their freshmen guards that led them to a number one seed are now sophomores. Guys such as Trey Kaufman-Renn, Mason Gillis, and Caleb Furst are excellent rotation pieces. Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones adds a little extra scoring punch on the perimeter. However, Purdue is just third in terms of odds to win the Maui Invitational. That seems like good value.
• Villanova to win the Battle 4 Atlantis +420. The jump from North Carolina at +270 to Villanova at +420 just doesn’t make much sense. We talked a lot about the Wildcats earlier and how much talent they have in their starting five. They are a veteran group that should be ready to roll from day one. North Carolina could definitely win it as the favorite, but the value could be sprinkling some on both ‘Nova at +420 and Arkansas at +430.
• Texas to make the Final Four +800. Final Four tickets are becoming increasingly difficult because of parity across college basketball. However, sometimes you catch a number that just doesn’t make a ton of sense. The Longhorns are likely to be at least a four seed in the NCAA Tournament and easily could be as high as a number two. Either way, +800 will likely seem attractive come Selection Sunday. Go ahead and grab it while you can.
• UConn to win the NCAA Championship +2200: Despite winning it all last season and returning some key pieces, an excellent freshman class, and a high-impact transfer, the Huskies have just the 10th best odds to win the title. We haven’t seen anyone repeat since 2006-2007 Florida, but this team has the talent to do it. There is value in these odds.
• Tyler Kolek to win the Wooden Award +2500: The best guard in the country has only the sixth-best odds at +2500 to win National Player of the Year? Jump on that. Marquette plays an up-tempo style that lends itself to putting up statistics. Kolek may well lead the NCAA in assists and could capture some in-season headlines with a triple-double or a 20-point, 15-assist type of night. Also, the Golden Eagles could be one of the best teams in the country. If Marquette comes out on top, and Kolek posts the numbers he is expected to post, it’ll be hard to not give him the award.

Got thoughts? Take advantage of our TIPOFF SPECIAL and continue the conversation on KSBoard, the KSR Message Board. New members can try 1 month for $1 or 50% off their first year.