The 2024-2025 College Basketball Manifesto

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the-2024-2025-college-basketball-manifesto — Aaron Perkins | Kentucky Sports Radio

We’ve made it, folks. The college basketball season tips off at 11:00 a.m. on Monday, November 4th for another winter featuring the greatest sport on the planet. This will be year five of releasing The College Basketball Manifesto here on Kentucky Sports Radio dot com. The goal is to provide you with a one-stop shop for everything you need to know about the upcoming season. If you love hoops, this is the article for you.

Per usual, opening day doesn’t exactly provide a ton of high quality matchups. The true sickos will be ready for an 11:00 a.m. tip-off between IU-Indianapolis and IU-Columbus. However, we will have to wait all the way until 11:30 p.m. for the best game of the day featuring Baylor at Gonzaga. In total, there are only five matchups featuring two teams ranked inside the KenPom Top 100. Additionally, of the 199 total games, 82 of them are Division I teams playing non-Division I opponents. Big games are right around the corner though as we get North Carolina @ Kansas on Friday and Houston vs. Auburn at the Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday.

Along with the Manifesto, I’ve broken down 25 of the biggest storylines heading into the season over the course of the last 25 days. You won’t have to leave this website to be fully ready for the games to begin.

Whether you are looking for conference previews, NCAA Tournament predictions, All-American selections, coaches on the rise, or even some gambling futures, The College Basketball Manifesto has you covered. Let’s dive right in.

Predicting the Power Five Conferences

The Blue Bloods and Power Conference schools are still the programs that move the needle. We bid farewell to the PAC 12 this past offseason, but many of the now power five conferences are even bigger and better. You now have an 18-team ACC and Big Ten while all 16 teams in the Big 12 and SEC are within the KenPom Top 100 preseason ratings. We could see a staggering number of teams make the NCAA Tournament from those leagues. Here is a breakdown of the predicted winner of each Power Five conference along with a sleeper pick to watch.

ACC

Champion: Duke. Since the league expanded in 2005, the Blue Devils have actually only won the regular season conference title three times. They were the champions in 2006, shared the title with Maryland in 2010, and then went until 2022 before winning it again. Teams like North Carolina and Wake Forest will certainly contend with Duke, but the roster is just too talented to pick anyone else. The highly-touted freshman class, led by projected #1 NBA Draft pick Cooper Flagg, earns a lot of the headlines. However, it is the return of Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster, along with transfer portal additions Maliq Brown (Syracuse), Mason Gillis (Purdue), and Sion James (Tulane) that solidify the Blue Devils as one of the best in the country.
Sleeper: Miami (FL). The Hurricanes had a lost season in 2023-2024. Expectations were high coming off of a Final Four run and returning guys like Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack. However, Miami lost 10 straight to end the year and finished under .500 at 15-17. Pack is back once again and Matthew Cleveland returns giving Coach Jim Larranaga plenty of ACC experience. Jalil Bethea and Austin Swartz are two highly talented freshmen who will factor into the backcourt equation right away. 6’10” center Lynn Kidd had a breakout senior season at Virginia Tech averaging 13.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. He will suit up for his fifth season at Miami. Forward Brandon Johnson (East Carolina) and guard Jalen Blackmon (Stetson) are other additions that will help right away. This team has the talent to be Top 25 in the country.

Big 12

Champion: Kansas. There isn’t a tougher league in the country to predict than the Big 12 going into this season. Houston (#1), Iowa State (#5), Kansas (#6), Arizona (#7), and Baylor (#10) are all ranked in the Top 10 of Evan Miya’s preseason projections. Eight teams are inside the KenPom Top 25. Reasonable minds could go in a few different directions, but the Jayhawks have so many pieces and a lot to prove after a somewhat lackluster 10-8 Big 12 season last year. Hunter Dickinson is a constant inside along with returners Dejuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams Jr. The addition of some talented shooting/scoring options will be what puts this Jayhawks team over the top though. Rylan Griffin (Alabama), AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State), Shakeel Moore (Mississippi State), and David Coit (Northern Illinois) will all be significant rotation pieces.
Sleeper: Cincinnati. The Bearcats return six rotation players including their top three scorers from a year ago. That isn’t something many teams in this league, or in the country for that matter, can say. Then, you add in Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell and Bradley guard Connor Hickman and you have a team that can knock on the door among the best teams in this loaded conference. If Mitchell makes another jump like he did between his freshman and sophomores season you could be looking at the Bearcats near the top of the standings at the end of the season.

Big East

Champion: UConn. There are two ways to look at this UConn Huskies team. One reasonable take is that, after winning back-to-back national championships, Coach Dan Hurley’s team deserves to be treated as the best until proven otherwise. The other side of that coin would be “blindly” looking at the roster and stripping away the UConn name. This isn’t a Top 10 roster in college basketball this season, but it is hard to not pick the Huskies to win the league once again. If anyone can do it, it will be Coach Hurley. Returning Alex Karaban and landing Aidan Mahaney from Saint Mary’s is a good place to start.
Sleeper: Xavier. There is a lot to like about this Xavier team. They are the most experienced, based on Division I minutes played, of any high-major program this season. Adding Ryan Conwell (Indiana State) and Dante Maddox Jr. (Toledo) helped to satisfy some shooting needs this off-season. Then, you get Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter back from season long injuries. Bringing back starting point guard Dayvion McKnight is a big deal for Coach Sean Miller as well. The Big East is likely to be up for grabs this year and the Musketeers have a roster to compete with the likes of UConn, Creighton, and Marquette at the top.

Big Ten

Champion: Purdue. Zach Edey will not be walking through that door. However, the Purdue Boilermakers return their starting backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Starting forward Trey Kaufman-Renn is expected to flourish in a larger offensive role as well. Losing key shooters in Lance Jones and Mason Gillis will be something to keep an eye on, but in a wide open Big Ten it feels safe to trust Coach Matt Painter and the Boilermakers.
Sleeper: Ohio State. There are legitimately seven or eight teams that could win the Big Ten this season and Ohio State deserves to be in that discussion. Bruce Thornton and Meechie Johnson give the Buckeyes as good of a backcourt as any team in the league. Then, Coach Jake Diebler took shots on a couple of development pieces in the front court. Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky) will look to make significant sophomore leaps in Columbus. If one or both reach their NBA upside it would go a long way towards Ohio State moving towards the top of the standings.

SEC

Champion: Alabama. Coach Nate Oats has officially built Alabama into a big time basketball program. After reaching the Sweet 16 in 2021 and 2023, the Crimson Tide broke through and made it to the Final Four last season. First Team All-American Mark Sears is back to run the show while versatile forward Grant Nelson returns in the front court. Additionally, Coach Oats did great both in the transfer portal and high school recruiting. Clifford Omoruyi from Rutgers will give Alabama an anchor at center to erase mistakes defensively. Once healthy, AAC Player of the Year Chris Youngblood will be a perfect piece in their up-tempo offense. Versatile freshman Derrion Reid can wear several different hats on both ends of the floor as a plug-and-play piece.
Sleeper: Ole Miss. Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray, and Jaemyn Brakefield give Coach Chris Beard three returning starters from a 20-win team. The Rebels started this season 13-0 were 18-3 overall and 5-3 in the SEC entering February before sputtering down the stretch. Bringing in Sean Pedulla who was an All-ACC point guard at Virginia Tech last season is an underrated transfer portal pickup. Dre Davis (Seton Hall) and Mikeal Brown-Jones (UNC Greensboro) will help solidify the front court as well. The SEC is a juggernaut this season, but the Rebels have the pieces to really surprise some people.

Mid-Majors Worth Following

We all know that when March Madness rolls around the average fan cheers for chaos. There is still nothing in all of sports quite like the NCAA Tournament and some of the stories that it creates. Who will be that double-digit seed to make a run to the second weekend, or beyond, this year? Let’s try to find some early contenders that you can follow throughout this season.

Grand Canyon. Coach Bryce Drew has a chance to do something special this season at Grand Canyon. His team won 30 games last season ending with a loss in the Round of 32 to Alabama. Tyon Grant-Foster returns as one of the best players in the country and the addition of TCU transfer JaKobe Coles raises their level on both ends of the floor. There is a big gap between the Antelopes and the next best team in the WAC. Neutral site non-conference contests with Arizona State, Stanford, and Georgia could be all that stands between them and an undefeated regular season.
New Mexico. The Mountain West will return to normalcy this season after a historically great year in 2023-2024. However, it will still be the best non-Power Five conference in college basketball. Boise State likely has the best individual player in the league in Tyson Degenhart. San Diego State might be able to contend with depth one through eight. New Mexico is going to win a lot of games though because their big three of Donovan Dent, Tru Washington, and Nelly Junior Joseph is as good as it gets. Look for the Lobos to go dancing once again this March.
Princeton. Two seasons ago the Tigers made it to the Sweet 16 as a #15 seed. That team beat Arizona and Missouri before falling to Creighton. Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce were freshmen during that run, and very productive freshmen at that, but then took it to another level last season. Lee, a 6’3″ guard, emerged as a legitimate NBA prospect averaging 17.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. Meanwhile, 6’7″ 220 pound Pierce was named Ivy League Player of the Year averaging 16.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. Those two are as good of players as you will find at the mid-major level.
Saint Joseph’s. Returning Erik Reynolds and Xzayvier Brown gives Coach Billy Lange arguably the best backcourt in mid-major basketball this season. Those two are truly dynamic scorers and shot-creators. Starting big man Rasheer Fleming is back as well after an excellent sophomore season. Adding Rutgers transfer Derek Simpson helps things on the defensive end as well. The Atlantic 10 will be very good at the top this season, but the Hawks can certainly compete with anyone.
UC Irvine. There is some impressive continuity for Coach Russell Turner’s group this season. Derin Seran went to Stanford after an excellent freshman season, but the Anteaters retained four starters, an excellent veteran front court defender, and added Myles Che who was good as a freshman at Chattanooga. When you look at their KenPom page, their only loss of the season is shown as their third game of the opening week at Northern Iowa by one point. This team could run through the Big West with a lot of success this season.

All-American Selections

First Team

Johni Broome: Fifth Year Center, Auburn

LJ Cryer: Fifth Year Guard, Houston

RJ Davis: Fifth Year Point Guard, North Carolina

Hunter Dickinson: Fifth Year Center, Kansas

Mark Sears: Fifth Year Point Guard, Alabama

Second Team

Cooper Flagg: Freshman Forward, Duke

Kam Jones: Senior Guard, Marquette

Ryan Kalkbrenner: Fifth Year Center, Creighton

Caleb Love: Fifth Year Guard, Arizona

Hunter Sallis: Senior Guard, Wake Forest

Third Team

Graham Ike: Senior Forward, Gonzaga

Tamin Lipsey: Junior Point Guard, Iowa State

Norchad Omier: Fifth Year Forward, Baylor

Kadary Richmond: Fifth Year Guard, St. John’s

Braden Smith: Junior Point Guard, Purdue

Finding College Basketball’s Coach Curt Cignetti

Like Coach Curt Cignetti on the gridiron, Coach Mark Byington built a great thing on the hardwood at James Madison. His run culminated in 32 wins last season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament Round of 32. He is now the head coach of the Vanderbilt Commodores. While the symmetry of another James Madison coach immediately becoming a winner at the high-major ranks would be the storybook script, it is hard to see Vandy having that level of success this season. However, there are two coaches who are making the jump from Division II to Division I this season that could experience varying levels of immediate success.

Paul Corsaro (IU-Indianapolis): Coach Corsaro is an Indianapolis guy. He played high school ball locally, starred in both football and basketball at the University of Indianapolis, and then was on the Greyhounds staff for six seasons under Coach Stan Gouard who is now the head coach at Southern Indiana. Then, after two seasons as an assistant at Purdue Fort Wayne, Coach Corsaro returned to take over the UIndy program. He went 79-37 in four seasons including trips to the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years. The Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in Division I basketball the last three seasons. Moving up the Horizon League standings may take a year or two, but Coach Corsaro will quickly change the culture at IU-Indianapolis. Don’t be surprised if winning happens sooner rather than later.

Ben McCollum (Drake): Coach Darian DeVries built a really good program at Drake. The Bulldogs made three of the last four NCAA Tournaments and won 25 or more games in each of those four seasons. However, Coach DeVries and his sone, Tucker DeVries, are now at West Virginia. Enter Coach Ben McCollum who wins as much as any coach in the country. He posted an incredible 394-91 record in 15 seasons at Northwest Missouri State. During that time he won four Division II national championships as well. If anyone can bring similar “Google me” energy to a program, it will be Coach McCollum at Drake.

How Will the High-Profile Roster Overhauls Work This Season?

We experienced some turnover of historic proportions this past off-season. It at least felt historic because so much of it was happening at some of the biggest programs featuring coaches with major name recognition. Ultimately, it was SMU that set off the largest chain reaction of the spring. They let Coach Rob Lanier go and hired Coach Andy Enfield away from USC. That domino led to Coach Eric Musselman heading back out west to take the USC job. Then, Coach John Calipari made the biggest splash by leaving Kentucky for conference rival Arkansas. Coach Mark Pope then returned to his alma mater leaving BYU for the Kentucky job. Finally, Coach Kevin Young closed the loop by taking the BYU job from the NBA ranks.

With all of that movement it led to some major off-season roster overhauls. Coach Musselman was an early adopter of the transfer portal at Arkansas and certainly had to lean into it again this off-season. His first team at USC will feature an entirely new roster full of veteran portal additions. Coach Calipari is certainly no stranger to roster turnover either. The godfather of 1-and-Done has some semblance of continuity at least with Trevon Brazile returning and three Kentucky players plus three recruits following him to Arkansas. However, it is still mostly an all new group in Fayetteville.

At Kentucky, Coach Mark Pope signed 12 scholarship players in the span of two months after taking the job. Travis Perry was already coming to Kentucky and Jaxson Robinson follow him from BYU, but again there is nothing returning to this roster aside from two walk-ons. According to Evan Miya, the Wildcats project to be the best of the three programs ranking #22 in the preseason projections. Arkansas is right behind at #24 while USC is further down at #46. Louisville, who begins the season #43 at Evan Miya, is another case study to follow. Coach Pat Kelsey cleaned house, understandably so, and appears to immediately have a competitive group. Chucky Hepburn (Wisconsin), Terrence Edwards (James Madison), and Koren Johnson (Washington) were big additions for the Cardinals.

It obviously remains to be seen which of those four high-profile roster reconstructions will work out the best. However, regardless of how it plays out, it promises to be one of the leading storylines throughout the season.

Top 10

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Best Non-Conference Games to Watch

For the college basketball night owls we will be treated to a great matchup at 11:30 p.m. on opening night as #6 Gonzaga takes on #8 Baylor in Spokane. Then, around Thanksgiving, we will get some great matchups in holiday tournaments. The Maui Invitational field is especially electric this season. We all have games in conference play like Arkansas’ trip to Kentucky on February 1st circled on the calendar as well. However, without going too far into the future, here are some of the non-conference games we are most excited to watch before the calendar turns to 2025.

#4 Houston vs. #11 Auburn (11/9) – This game is technically being played at a neutral site, but the Toyota Center in Houston will certainly be a Cougar-friendly environment. Both are ranked highly in the AP Poll, but KenPom likes them even more putting them at #1 and #3 respectively in the preseason.

#2 Alabama @ #14 Purdue (11/15) – Two Final Four teams from last season will meet in West Lafayette for what should be a crazy environment at Mackey Arena. It’ll be a treat to watch two the best point guards in college basketball, Mark Sears and Braden Smith, go head-to-head.

#7 Duke @ #10 Arizona (11/22) – Duke’s Champions Classic game against Kentucky on 11/12 will be the first marquee matchup for Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils’ heralded recruiting class. However, this top 10 matchup later in November will be a big test as well. Caleb Love and the Wildcats won at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season so Duke will be out for revenge.

#11 Auburn vs. #5 Iowa State (11/25) – The entire Maui Invitational will be incredibly watchable with fun potential matchups littering the field. However, this is the one we know we are getting in the opening round. These aren’t just two of the best teams in the country, but also two of the best defenses in college basketball this season.

#4 Houston vs. #2 Alabama, #7 Duke vs. #1 Kansas (11/26) – It’ll be one heck of a night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with these two games running back-to-back. It’ll be a contrast of styles in the Houston versus Alabama game. Then, in Duke versus Kansas, the floor will be littered with talent.

#2 Alabama @ #9 North Carolina (12/4) – You can’t get a much more fun matchup than Mark Sears and RJ Davis battling it out in the backcourt. Two of the most dynamic guards in the country will be facing off in this contest. Both are among the top active career scorers in college basketball as well.

Finding Value in the Futures Markets

Brandon’s Best Bets was a lucrative venture for many followers over on KSBoard last season. We will be back, beginning November 4th, with daily gambling advice. However, to get ahead of the game, let’s lay out some of our favorite futures before the college basketball season tips off. (All odds are provided by the FanDuel Sportsbook App).

Alabama +1400 Championship Winner – I’m not the highest among “media members” on Alabama. However, with Mark Sears and everything surrounding him this is too good of a price to pass up. A team who could very realistically be ranked #1 has the fifth best odds? Sign me up.
Alabama +220 SEC Winner – The Southeastern Conference is very good this season, but the Crimson Tide still have the best roster. Stick with the Tide to come out on top this year.
Creighton +430 Big East Winner – UConn is getting a ton of credit in betting markets that their roster simply doesn’t deserve. Maybe Coach Hurley is just that good, but this is excellent value. I’d be interested in Xavier at +650 and Marquette at +750 as well. It is fair to think that the Huskies don’t win the league this season.
Houston +1400 Championship Winner – Unfortunately, this is another one that has moved against us a little bit, but even down to +1000 I like both the Cougars and conference rival Kansas as well. Houston has been too good the last three seasons, finishing #2 in KenPom each time, to not get back to the Final Four. Then, at that point, anything can happen.
Illinois +1000 Big Ten Winner – This one makes no sense to me. There is so much parity at the top of the Big Ten that I’d take the Illinois and UCLA at +1000 and feel pretty good. Excellent value.
UAB +325 AAC Winner – Betting on the inevitable implosion at Memphis is probably pretty safe. UAB, under head coach Andy Kennedy, is one of the best mid-major programs in the country as well. Don’t be surprised if they are able to win the AAC this season.
Wake Forest +10000 Championship Winner – This is obviously a long shot ticket. It may have already dropped to +7500, but if you got in at +10000 I think you have a great price. The Demon Deacons aren’t likely to win the title, but they are probably the third best team in the ACC and have a potential All-American guard. If you told me this group made the Elite Eight and set up a great hedging opportunity I wouldn’t be surprised at all.