The Best Kentucky Derby Field Since . . .

 

I attended my first Kentucky Derby in 1998.  Real Quiet won that day and 5 weeks later was just a bad Kent Desormeaux ride (the first of 2 Triple Crowns he blew in the saddle) away from winning the first Triple Crown in (at that time) 2 decades.  I was hooked on horse racing for life.  In the 20 years that I’ve been following the sport closely, I cannot remember a Derby field with this much depth.  You can make a valid case for nearly half the field ending up in the winners’ circle.  The quality at the top of the field is unmatched by any other I can remember – and that includes a stellar 2007 class – two of which (Curlin and Scat Daddy) have multiple sons representing them in this renewal.  In addition to the 144th Run for the Roses, the Saturday card at Churchill Downs includes a plethora of great wagering opportunities, including 6 supporting stakes races.  Here is a brief look at each of them:

Race 6 – Grade 1 Humana Distaff

Finley’sluckycharm has never lost in 6 prior attempts at Churchill Downs.  She enters here fresh off her first Grade 1 win in which she withstood a wicked pace duel and fought gamely to the wire to prevail by a nose in the grade 1 Madison at Keeneland.  Ivy Bell took the grade 2 Inside Information in her first start for Todd Pletcher and can certainly be a factor in here as well.  Lewis Bay missed by just a head in the aforementioned Madison and will again be aided by a hotly contested pace between Finley’sluckycharm and American Gal.  American Gal battled bravely on the front end of that heat in Lexington and fell short by just a neck.  She could turn the tables on her foes with the screws now fully tightened following that prep.

Race 7 – Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile

Dream Awhile shortens up to the one mile distance for the first time in her career in this wide open contest for distaff turf milers.  Irad Ortiz Jr. chose her over On Leave, who is 4 for 7 at the eight panel distance and is the most consistent of this group at finding the winners’ enclosure.  La Coronel won her only other start at Churchill Downs in last year’s grade 3 Edgewood.  Expect her to get an excellent stalking trip from her outside draw sitting just off the flank of Psycho Sister.

Race 8 – Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes

Chief Cicatriz and Imperial Hint are likely to set off on a suicidal pace duel.  If either survives it would most certainly be Imperial Hint, as he was able to stay up comfortably for the runner-up spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint after a half mile in 44 and 3.  The extra furlong today could be his undoing.  Whitmore and Limousine Liberal are the likely beneficiaries of the throw down up front.  Whitmore is in good form coming in off victories in the Hot Springs and Count Fleet at Oaklawn.  Limousine Liberal is 5 for 7 lifetime at Churchill and should be ready to fire his best effort after a close runner-up finish in the grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland.

Race 9 – Grade 2 American Turf

Threeandfourpence invades for the Aidan O’Brien barn and gets first time Lasix to add to his solid European form.  He will be a formidable favorite under Ryan Moore.  Captivating Moon rates as the slight upset choice based on his second place efforts behind Analyze It and Gidu in his last two.  Any of these could find the wire first and it seems like a necessary spot to cast a very wide net in this sequence.

Race 10 – Grade 3 Pat Day Mile

National Flag, Madison’s Luna, Mask, and Restoring Hope look like the most probable winners in this spot.  Restoring Hope is the only one of that group without a stakes win, but he cuts back in distance after a decent run in the Wood Memorial and adds blinkers for Bob Baffert.  National Flag has been very impressive in his two starts this term, particularly so in the Bay Shore where he was squeezed at the start, losing his normal stalking position.  He handled the adversity with aplomb and won easily going away.  This does look like a tougher group, but he may well be the best of these.

Race 11 – Grade 1 Turf Classic

Beach Patrol will likely go favored in a race that could be won from anywhere.  He is only 1 for his last 5 as the favorite and has finished second in both his attempts over the Churchill lawn.  This is his first start of the year and seems like a logical spot to try and beat him.  Synchrony is a perfect 2 for 2 at the 9 furlong distance with both wins coming this year as he seems to have moved forward as a 5yo.  Yoshida makes his first start since October and offers some intrigue as a very athletic, versatile horse at double digit odds.

Race 12 – Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

Justify, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn are all immensely talented horses and it would be absolutely no surprise if any of them were to win.  They will all be very short prices as far as the Derby goes and they are all trying to do something that has never been done or has never been done in anyone’s lifetime that is still amongst the living.  Justify and Magnum Moon are up against the curse of Apollo, having not started as 2yos.  Mendelssohn is trying to become the first UAE Derby winner to even hit the board at Churchill Downs.  While it is very likely that Justify and Mendelssohn are the best 2 horses in this crop, they do not offer great betting value in this particular 20 horse field.  Good Magic and Bolt D’Oro are the two horses with very good chances of winning that will likely offer decent betting value as well.  Good Magic‘s wins over full fields in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Bluegrass Stakes prove that he has what it takes against larger fields with top notch competition.  He is training beautifully and will almost certainly run the race of his life.  Bolt D’Oro has become a bit of a forgotten horse.  He won 2 grade 1 races last year, but things have not quite gone his way since (with the exception of a DQ that granted him victory in the San Felipe).  He will get a more suitable pace scenario today than what he got in his California preps and seems as well suited as any to get the 10 furlongs.  Audible, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso are all worth consideration for the top spot as well and should each offer fair value.  Lone Sailor, Solomini, and Combatant are all late runners that will be passing tired horses in the stretch and could add some significant juice to the vertical exotic wagers.

Enjoy watching one of the most accomplished Kentucky Derby fields of all time, and best of luck at the windows.  You can follow me on Twitter @chadlashbrook for Derby day updates, particularly as it relates to the weather and how to alter strategy in the unfortunate circumstance of an off-track.