The blueprint for Kentucky WBB to upset No. 1 South Carolina in Columbia

The second half of the Tennessee game seems like it could be the turning point of the season for the Kentucky women’s basketball program. That is, a turn in the completely wrong direction.

Kentucky was outscored 48-20 in the final two quarters against the Lady Vols, and the ‘Cats left Knoxville 8-8 with a red-hot Vanderbilt team looking to hand Kentucky yet another loss. Despite getting out to a 5-0 lead, Vanderbilt pounced with a 10-0 run, and the Commodores never looked back. Now, Kentucky sits at 8-9 (1-2) following a 95-73 loss to Vanderbilt on Thursday.

It seems like all of the momentum Kentucky had mustered through their four-game winning streak (including a big win over Arkansas) has been drained away. To make matters worse, Kentucky faces the best team in college basketball on their home floor come Monday. Marching into Colonial Life Arena to take on undefeated No. 1 South Carolina is a death sentence, simply put. There may not be a bigger home advantage in all of college sports. South Carolina’s last home loss came on December 3, 2020, to NC State. Since then, the Gamecocks have won 50 home games in a row. They have won 65 of their last 66 home games dating back to the 2019-20 season.

So, that’s about all you need to know. There’s no possible way that Kentucky can really beat South Carolina on Monday… right? Wrong.

I rewatched every single game that South Carolina has played up until this point in the season. That includes seven home games, six away games, and two neutral site games for a total of 15 games. Hours and hours of tape have played on my TV, and I’ve come up with a blueprint for how Kentucky could pull off the biggest upset in school history.

Additionally, I talked with Chris Wellbaum, who covers South Carolina women’s basketball for On3’s GamecockCentral about South Carolina’s strengths, weaknesses, and anything else there is to know to give us an insider perspective on the Gamecocks. Huge thank you to Chris for taking the time to help me out with this project.

Now, without any further ado, here’s how the ‘Cats can shock the world on Monday night.

Make South Carolina shoot the three and clog the paint

This probably sounds like the worst strategy possible considering South Carolina is the nation’s best three-point shooting team (42.6%), but let me explain.

When you’re facing David and Goliath-type odds, you must have Lady Luck on your side. If Kentucky has any chance of winning, South Carolina has to have a cold shooting night. They have to be off. UK’s guards must play with the defensive intensity that we saw them play with through eight quarters of play from the second half of the Samford game to the Arkansas game to the first half of the Tennessee game. Brooklynn Miles and Maddie Scherr must be disruptive against ball handlers and they must intercept passing lanes. Kentucky needs to limit South Carolina to 15 or fewer attempts from deep and five or fewer makes.

Kentucky then needs to prioritize defense down low. The ‘Cats can’t afford to give the Gamecocks free opportunities in the paint. If South Carolina comes out and is unstoppable from 16-18 feet out, you shake their hand and say good game. You do not let them beat you with easy layups and especially uncontested shots.

If someone for South Carolina gets the ball down low, contest. Then, foul if need be. Plus, South Carolina has had some serious issues as of late with being able to convert down low. Kentucky needs to focus on making sure that doesn’t change against them.

South Carolina insider Chris Wellbaum told KSR, “They’ve had games where they commit a bunch of turnovers or miss a bunch of free throws. It hasn’t hurt them yet, but if they get upset, it’s probably going to be because of turnovers and free throws.” Those are the things that keep Dawn Staley up at night.

Regarding the free throws specifically, South Carolina is 11th in the SEC in free throw percentage (66.4%), so that’s why Kentucky really needs to be active defensively down low. South Carolina is good enough. Kentucky can’t afford to gift them free points down low. They need to make the Gamecocks earn them at the charity stripe.

Be competitive on the glass by gang-rebounding

In Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt, Ajae Petty had a historic 20-20 double-double that had only been done twice before. Valerie Still accomplished the feat two times, with her last 20-20 game coming in 1982. While Petty’s performance was absolutely phenomenal, it did highlight a big, big issue for the UK women.

Even though Petty had 21 rebounds, the next highest rebound total for a ‘Cat was two. Yes, no other player had more than two rebounds for Kentucky. Vanderbilt, a below-average team on the boards, won the battle on the glass 39-32. That is easily South Carolina’s biggest advantage heading into Monday night.

South Carolina is tops in the SEC and second in the nation in rebounds per game with 49.3 per contest. The Gamecocks have five players who are 6-2 or taller, with 6-7 center Kamilla Cardoso being the standout player for them. Cardoso is currently projected to go to the Seattle Storm with the fourth pick in the WNBA draft. All of this is to say that South Carolina could absolutely destroy Kentucky on the boards. It could be a 60-25 margin if it gets bad enough. That’s why Kentucky needs to solve the rebounding issue, NOW.

So, how does Kentucky suddenly remedy this issue? By being technically sound and having all five players attacking the boards. It comes down to elementary basketball. Kentucky needs to get leverage defensively, box out, and fight for rebounds. Does Kentucky have to win the rebound battle to win? No, not necessarily, but Kentucky can’t afford to lose that battle by any more than 10 rebounds. And ideally, Kentucky needs to keep it within 5-8.

Win the turnover battle and convert on South Carolina’s mistakes

This is where Kentucky can really try to take control of this game.

Going back to what Wellbaum and I discussed, turnovers have been the issue for South Carolina this season. Whether it’s forcing turnovers or not committing them, the Gamecocks have struggled to do both at times. Again, this is something that Dawn Staley sees as a huge issue on her team.

The Gamecocks currently rank 169th in the nation in turnovers forced per game with 16.6, and on top of that, they have committed 11 or more turnovers in 11 games, including 18+ turnovers three times. What does Coach Staley attribute this to? Believe it or not, carelessness. “Dawn [Staley] really lit into them last week for being careless,” Wellbaum told KSR.

Following South Carolina’s 85-66 win over Mississippi State on January 7th, Staley demanded more of her players, trying to instill that championship mentality that we all know Staley for. If Kentucky is lucky, South Carolina may overlook them and this could be a trap game that the ‘Cats can take advantage of.

So, Kentucky needs to look to force turnovers and convert in transition. If the Gamecocks play sloppy, Kentucky needs to exploit that immediately. Kyra Elzy has always had a major focus in the turnover battle, and she’ll need to see UK win that part of the game if the ‘Cats want to have a shot in the dark at winning this game. What number do you aim for if you’re Kentucky? How about 18+ turnovers forced and 12 or fewer turnovers committed.

If the Gamecocks sleepwalk into this game on Monday night, then Kentucky may have a chance to defeat the team that has made three consecutive Final Fours. South Carolina has been down many times this season just to claw back and escape with a win. No one has been able to finish the job. Let’s see if Kentucky can alter the college basketball landscape and be the first to hand South Carolina an L this season.

And for good vibes, let’s relive Kentucky’s last win over South Carolina, which clinched the program’s first SEC Championship since 1982. Run it back.

KENTUCKY HITS THE LATE THREE TO BEAT SOUTH CAROLINA AND WIN THE WOMEN'S SEC CHAMPIONSHIP 😱@KentuckyWBB pic.twitter.com/pOI2k7bsGe

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) March 6, 2022