The Most Disappointing Part of Kentucky Basketball? The Missed Opportunities

During the first eight years of the John Calipari tenure, you didn’t have much to complain about. All in all, Calipari was close to maximizing those years, although adding a second title to 2012 would probably be a fair criticism. But in the games where Kentucky was eliminated in the tournament, they either occurred late in the event or to a very quality team:

• 2010: No. 2-seed West Virginia
• 2011: No. 3-seed UCONN
• 2014: No. 7-seed UCONN (although in the national title game)
• 2015: No. 1-seed Wisconsin
• 2016: No. 4-seed Indiana
• 2017: No. 1-seed North Carolina

Since that 2017 season though, we have obviously seen a noticeable decline in Kentucky’s ability to put together elite teams who make elite runs in the tournament. That is disappointing in itself. But what might be equally as disturbing as the quality of the team is just how many draws have broken open for Kentucky each and every year since that time, with no Final Fours. Not counting the first-round games, in which your opponent’s seed is locked in, Kentucky has played seven NCAA Tournament games. They have played a team seeded worse than they could have played 3 of 7 games and have not played a team seeded higher than three in any of those games. And they’ve gone 4-3.

When you look at this recent run of teams at Kentucky, I think one of the tragic things is UK could have still added some significant pieces of its history and made some Final Fours with some average squads. Just look at the last four tournaments (not counting 2024).

2018

• Defeated No. 12-seed Davidson, Defeated No. 13-seed Buffalo
• Lost to No. 9-seed Kansas State
• Would have played No. 11-seed Loyola (Elite 8), No. 3-seed Michigan (Final Four), No. 1-seed Villanova (National Title)

Maybe no draw in Kentucky’s history opened up more than this one in 2018. Kentucky benefited from both Arizona being upset by Buffalo and UMBC knocking out Virginia. And if UK hadn’t been taken out by Kansas State, they would have gotten the gift of an 11-seed. They could have played for a national championship that year only having to beat ONE team seeded higher than EIGHTH!

2019

• Defeated No. 15-seed Abilene Christian, No. 7-seed Wofford, No. 3-seed Houston
• Lost to No. 5-seed Auburn
• Would have played No. 1-seed Virginia (Final Four), No. 3-seed Texas Tech (National Title)

This draw fell in Kentucky’s favor in two different ways. First off, they got the benefit of playing mid-major teams in the first three rounds. Wofford and Houston were both quality teams that year, and UK had to squeak by them, but that wasn’t exactly a murderer’s row of opponents. But then that got the biggest benefit when Auburn took out No. 1-seed UNC and lost their best player in the process to a knee injury. An Auburn team that Kentucky had already beaten twice that season, the second time by 27 points.

2022

• Lost to No. 15-seed Saint Peter’s
• Would have played No. 7-seed Murray State (2nd Round), No. 3-seed Purdue (Sweet 16), No. 8-seed UNC (Elite 8)

Much like in 2019, UK would have gotten a mid-major in the 2nd round, this time a team they certainly would not have overlooked in Murray State. Purdue would have been a challenge in the Sweet 16 but had they gotten through that, an 8-seed awaited them in the Elite 8. This was, in theory, one of Cal’s best teams. And, obviously, the loss to St. Peter’s was devastating but really losing at any point in that region would have been surprising.

2023

• Beat No. 11-seed Providence
• Lost to No. 3-seed Kansas St
• Would have played No. 7-seed Michigan State (Sweet 16), No. 9-seed Florida Atlantic (Elite 8), No. 5-seed San Diego State (Final Four)

Now, let’s face reality with this team. They were just a pretty average team. They would show flashes and probably were not played as effectively as possible. But they were just not one of Cal’s elite squads. With that said, they could have made a National Championship game without playing anything better than a 3-seed. And that 3-seed was Kansas State. Did that squad have the talent to deserve a Final Four? Probably not. Did they have the draw to make one though? Absolutely.

Let’s not forget that Kentucky would have played 11-seed NC State in this year’s tournament as well. The rest of the draw has played out as expected so not as open as previous years. But the tournament losses in the first half of Cal’s tenure were always heartbreaking because we thought those teams could make Final Fours and win championships. But they always lost to quality opponents. Lately, the losses have been heartbreaking because the opponents are not of a quality to challenge Kentucky. And yet, they have moved on and we have not. And because of that, the history of this program has been stuck in the mud.