The Path To A One Seed

Sure, some people out there would say that talking about a one seed in the NCAA in November is a little premature.  But some people out there say that dipping pizza in ranch dressing isn’t disgusting, and I don’t listen to them either.  So let’s start the insanity and look at the road map to a one seed for Kentucky.

To get a one seed (much less the overall one) you need a few things to happen.  You have to beat quality opponents (which means you have to schedule them, or your league has to have a few in it), and you need the other potential one seeds to drop some games.  So over the next few months, I’m going to keep tabs on how the potential ‘quality opponents’ on Kentucky’s schedule are doing, as well as looking at what upcoming games might be loseable for any other contenders.

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What the top teams are looking like:

Duke:

Most recently lost to Kansas as a part of the champions classic.  Kentucky likely would have the nod over Duke if the tournament started today, but with FAU and UNCA on the schedule this week, the Blue Devils are poised to stay close to the top for the next week at least.

Kansas:

Second behind Michigan State with the strongest resume so far, the Jayhawks surprised most by taking down the Blue Devils earlier this week.  Kansas doesn’t play anyone noteworthy until December 10th when they travel to Gainesville.  Unless the Iona Gaels have some of Michael Jordan’s Secret Stuff, don’t expect the ‘Hawks to struggle for another few weeks.

Michigan State:

The deserved number one team in the nation after knocking off Kentucky this week, Michigan State’s next challenge comes against Virginia Tech a week from today.  And I use challenge there loosely – VT lost its opening game to USC Upstate.  Michigan State’s next challenge comes December 4th when they host UNC.

Louisville:

Louisville goes longer in between challenging non conference games than all of Rick Pitino’s suspensions combined.  Their first challenging game comes December 28th against, you guessed it, the Kentucky Wildcats.  Don’t expect Louisville to drop a game between now and then, which just means the hype for the rivalry will be that much better.  And a better Louisville means a better note on Kentucky’s resume as they gun for a one seed.

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But you can’t just hope the top teams lose – you need your opponents to win too.  So let’s look at the SEC teams who have a chance to strengthen the conference.

Florida:  

Coming in to the season it looked like Florida would be a force to be reckoned with – and they still may.  But amidst a number of injuries and suspensions, as well as a loss to Wisconsin and the Gators aren’t helping out the SEC too much.  Still, Billy Donovan is a good coach, and with a string of decent opponents coming up in December, the Gators still have time to pull it together.

Tennessee:

The Volunteers have taken their Kentucky hatred to a new level, because they have to be trying to weaken Kentucky’s strength of schedule with their play and scheduling.  There’s no other reason for it.  Tennessee lost their first game to Xavier, and they play only four top 25 teams this season – two out of conference.  At this point it’s too soon to tell, but if UT can pull off five games in a row before taking on the Wichita State Shockers, there’s still a chance to make some noise.

South Carolina:

Not the sexiest of SEC teams to have to root for, but they did take #23 Baylor to the wire, face off against Clemson this week, and have a shot at #8 Oklahoma State in a couple weeks.  South Carolina may not realize their potential this season, but if they do it could give Kentucky another conference stepping stone towards a one seed.

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It’s a long road to the promised land, and by the time Kentucky is entering the SEC tournament with a 30-1 record, maybe it won’t matter.  But until then, adjust your rooting preferences accordingly.