Todd Golden would 'probably' foul up three, but it's a judgment call: "Analytically, it's 50/50"

To foul or not to foul, that is the question. Take two games this season for instance. Kentucky chose not to foul up three vs. North Carolina in the CBS Sports Classic back in December, but won — Elliot Cadeau bounced it off Cormac Ryan’s back to lose the game for the Tar Heels. And then again vs. Florida on Wednesday, the Cats opted to play out the defensive possession, leading to a made three for Walter Clayton Jr. — Gators win in overtime.

The situation is tricky and subjective based on a number of factors, time remaining being one. Florida secured the defensive rebound with 13 seconds to go, 3-point attempt taken with five.

“If we were going to foul with that much time against a really good rebounding team, it’s just dangerous,” John Calipari said.

Was Florida expecting the foul? Coach Todd Golden wasn’t thinking about it either way, rather letting the game unfold on the fly. Looking back, though, the 38-year-old says his strategy is to foul and play the free-throw game.

But he can see both sides.

“Honestly, I wasn’t thinking about it a whole lot during the heat of the moment. Looking back on it, it would’ve been an opportunity probably,” he said. “But, honestly — analytically, it’s 50/50 on whether you foul or not. My thing is we try to be consistent in those opportunities, but they played it out.

“Reed [Sheppard] is a really good help defender and takes some chances, but he had just blocked Walter’s shot in the corner a couple minutes before. He was showing the ability to close out in rotation. Walter was just really poised being able to put that ball in the basket.”

Calipari’s reaction as he watched it all unfold?

“That’s basketball. Whatever decision you make, if it works, you are a genius.,” he said. “If it doesn’t, ‘Ah, should have done it the other way.'”

College Basketball Analytics ran the numbers and found that teams leading by three with 0-4, 4-8 or 8-12 seconds were more likely to hold on and win in regulation if they fouled.

In both men’s and women’s basketball, the numbers over the last four years suggest that fouling when leading by three (when executed properly) is advantageous. The numbers also suggest that teams should try to foul with as little time remaining as possible. Teams that foul with 0-4 and 4-8 seconds remaining are far more likely to avoid OT than teams that allow a 3PA in the same time interval. Although teams that foul up three are also more likely to experience a regulation insta-loss, the odds of this happening is under 2%, which is not high enough to offset the 8-10% decrease in OT% that appears to comes with fouling.

(Ken) Pomeroy’s past results showed that team win percentages were similar between the two strategies. However, Pomeroy’s article used data from 2010 – 2013, and yesterday’s numbers are not today’s numbers – perhaps teams have improved in execution when fouling late.

As it stands, both strategies depend on personnel, where the ball is inbounded, offensive rebounding percentages, free throw shooting, ability to shoot contested 3PAs, time remaining in the game, and likely more. Still, for coaches that trust their team’s ability to hit their free throws and to execute a last-second foul, fouling appears to be the better strategy.

cbbanalytics.com

Does Florida’s status as the nation’s No. 1 rebounding team change things for Kentucky? That was Coach Cal’s mindset.

Either way, it didn’t work out for the Cats this time around.