Tom Hart: 'An upset or two' would have Kentucky in the CFP conversation by November

If you look at ESPN’s Football Power Index numbers, Kentucky has less than a five percent chance of making the College Football Playoff this season. But there is a real path for the Wildcats to greatly increase those odds throughout the course of the schedule.

Playing in a loaded Southeastern Conference — which includes a road game against newcomer Texas, ranked No. 4 in the preseason AP Poll — does not help the Wildcats’ odds of making a run to the CFP. Kentucky will host No. 1 Georgia in Week 3 before visiting No. 6 Ole Miss in Week 5, not to mention a must-win scenario in Lexington against South Carolina in Week 2. We’ll know pretty quickly how the season is going to play out after the first few games.

Even with one of Mark Stoops‘ most talented rosters during his tenure as head coach, a very good season in 2024 could mean “only” seven wins. Most season-long predictions for the ‘Cats hover between the 6-8 wins range. There are four Top 15 opponents on the schedule — three among the Top 6.

All that being said, Kentucky’s strength of schedule could easily play to its advantage. The best way to boost a resume is by beating quality opponents, and Kentucky will obviously face plenty of them (plus Louisville).

All it takes to be in the CFP conversation going into the final stretch of the regular season is an upset or two (and taking care of business against the teams you’re supposed to beat). Easier said than done, of course, but ESPN’s Tom Hart, who is on the call for the Wildcats’ season opener on Saturday against Southern Miss, believes the road is there for UK to make that a reality.

“It’s a six-win floor, it’s more likely to be an eight-win team and if you can pull off an upset or two, then November is going to start and you’re in the College Football Playoff conversation,” Hart said about Kentucky during an appearance with KSR on Wednesday morning. “I think the goal for a lot of teams — not a stated goal — but I think fanbases will get so much return out of their seasons if the calendar turns to November and you’re sitting there with two losses or fewer. And you’re thinking okay, we’re in this. Now all of the sudden, that game in Knoxville is more important than it’s ever been. The game against Louisville is more important than it has ever been — to try and crack that code and get into the Playoff. I think it’s huge.”

That path to two or fewer losses by the start of November is a serious possibility for Kentucky. A lot of it depends on Week 2 against South Carolina — win that one, and everything remains on the table. We can consider games against Southern Miss, Ohio, and Vanderbilt as wins. Even by assuming losses to Georgia and Ole Miss, taking down Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weekends (a tough, but definitely possible outcome) to close out October would have Kentucky sitting at 6-2. Pull off an upset against the Bulldogs or Rebels, then the CFP bells can really start to ring.

The best-case scenario is Kentucky puts itself in a position over halfway through the season where a path to the CFP is still clear. A 6-2 record (or 7-1 if everything comes together) going into the showdown with Tennessee on Nov. 2 would do just that. Actually making the CFP will still be a lofty goal for the ‘Cats (nine wins likely won’t be enough), but with the way the system is now set up, it’s not out of the equation.