Tom Petty and the NBA Outlook You've Been Looking For: Part II

@banterjosh

The NBA season starts tonight so here is the final bit of prognosticating before tip off. In case you missed last week’s Eastern Conference preview you can check that out here. Remember, the team predictions are all in honor of Tom Petty and therefore each team’s song will be a Tom Petty song.

Dallas- “Into the Great Wide Open”

“His leather jacket had chains that would jingle
They both met movie stars, partied and mingled
Their A&R man said, “I don’t hear a single.”
The future was wide open”

The Dallas Mavericks have been riding on the Dirk Nowitzki train for a long time. As Nowitzki prepares for his 20^th season, the Mavs appear like they’re trying to gear up for one more playoff push. The Mavs will have a veteran team with a potential star in rookie Dennis Smith. Ultimately I think the West is just too tough and probably the Mavs will be staring into the post-Nowitzki void in the near future. From there who knows what to expect for Dallas.

Denver- “Dreams of Flying”

“I get dreams of flying
I get dreams of flying”

The Denver Nuggets are going to be a fun team to watch this year, as long as you have NBA League Pass since they won’t ever be on national tv. They have significant scoring threats in Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray and a solid group of role players like Trey Lyles, Wilson Chandler, and Kenneth Faried. Emmanuel Mudiay needs to take a significant step as a point guard this year for Denver to climb into the middle of the Western Conference pack. As the season gets ready to start, Nuggets fans should be excited to see an interesting group.

Golden State- “While My Guitar Gently Weeps”

“I don’t know how someone controlled you
They bought and sold you”

At the 2004 Rock N’ Roll Hall of Fame Ceremony, Tom Petty led an all-star group in a performance of this song which was absolutely breathtaking. The 2017-18 Warriors are going to be absolutely breathtaking. What we saw in the playoffs in 2017 (16-1) was the result of that team finally gelling on a complete level. With every major contributor back, the 17-18 Warriors should destroy the NBA this year…and everybody will weep. Don’t feel sad though, watch this video and see how truly amazing Prince was as a guitarist.

Houston- “American Girl”

“God it’s so painful when something that’s so close
Is still so far out of reach”

James Harden and Chris Paul will be an interesting experiment and I’m rooting for it to work. With Coach Mike D’Antoni’s offensive style, Harden and Paul could be dynamic. Let’s be honest though. It doesn’t matter how well those two click or how much fun this team will be. They will not be on the level of the Warriors. Houston was 26^th in defense last year, a number which Paul likely won’t be able to help much. Houston got better in the off-season, but they still aren’t quite good enough.

Los Angeles Clippers- “Learning to Fly”

“I’m learning to fly, around the clouds
But what goes up must come down”

The window for the Clippers appears to be closing. The group of Paul, Blake Griffin, and Deandre Jordan teased fans for years only to be derailed by injuries, bad coaching, and bad luck. The Clippers have a good team with Griffin as their lynchpin and the surrounding pieces should keep them in the playoffs. As other teams in the West have improved, though, the Clippers are going to start falling down the Western Conference ladder.

LA Lakers- “Something in the Air”

“Call out the instigator
Because there’s something in the air
We’ve got to get together sooner or later
Because the revolution’s here”

The expectations for the Lakers have nothing to do with wins and losses. This season will be all eyes on Lonzo and, by association, LaVar. In addition to the potential sideshows caused by the Big Baller Brand, this season will be full of speculation regarding roster additions in 2018. Lebron and Paul George have been heavily rumored to be in the Lakers’ sights. With all of these ancillary pieces swirling around the Lakers, it’s easy to see the future being very bright, even if it doesn’t really show on the court this year.

Memphis- “Poor House”

“Woman I’ve tried so hard
Just to do my best
They’re gonna put me in the poor house
And you’ll take all the rest”

The “Grit and Grind” Grizzlies of the last several seasons were not always the most talented, but you never questioned how hard they played. It appears that era has come and gone now, though. The Grizzlies brought in a bunch of new faces and with the absence of Zach Randolph, their identity already feels different. With a lot of youth and no real superstars to lead them, the Grizzlies are in danger of taking a significant drop this year. They have some intriguing players on the roster, but it’s difficult to see them going anywhere but backward.

Minnesota- “Refugee”

“We got somethin’, we both know it, we don’t talk too much about it
Ain’t no real big secret, all the same, somehow we get around it”

Outside of the 76ers, no team is expected to be as improved as Minnesota this season. There are a ton of reasons to be optimistic if you’re a T’Wolves fan: continued improvement by KAT and Andrew Wiggins, the addition of Jimmy Butler, Coach Thib’s second season, the crazy heat check shots from Jamal Crawford, and more. There are still plenty of question marks for this team, most notably: shooting. The Timberwolves will have to improve defensively to help offset what’s likely to be inconsistent offensive production, but look for them to get comfortably into the playoffs this year.

Oklahoma City- “Breakdown”

“It’s alright if you love me
It’s alright if you don’t
I’m not afraid of you running away
Honey, I get the feeling you won’t”

Did the additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony make the Thunder a serious contender? I don’t think so, but they’re significantly closer than they were. Like the Rockets, it’s hard to see them really challenging the Warriors, but if (and that’s a big if) those two plus Russ can exist in harmony then they can challenge anybody. The Warriors would have a difficult time stopping them, and if my favorite UK player of all time, Patrick Patterson, can become a 40% 3 point shooter, then the Thunder might be able to score enough to make it interesting. Will this be a one year experiment before George bolts and Anthony opts-out? Only time will tell, but I think there’s a better chance of them sticking together than a lot think.

New Orleans- “Wildflowers”

“You belong among the wildflowers
You belong in a boat out at sea
Sail away, kill off the hours
You belong somewhere you feel free”

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I bought into the Pelicans last year, but seemingly neverending injuries caused the Pelicans to dig a hole they couldn’t climb out of. This year I’m not buying them at all. I love all the Cats on there and wish there was a way to make that UK starting 5 a reality, but this is a situation where I think the best thing for Anthony Davis and Demarcus Cousins is to get out. Cousins is a free agent after this season, so a trade may be in his future. Davis, on the other hand, has four seasons left on his deal so he’s probably locked in. Hopefully the Pelicans will make some moves this season to be awful so they can build around Davis over these next four years.

Phoenix- “Even the Losers”

“Baby even the losers
Get lucky sometimes
Even the losers
Keep a little bit of pride”

The Suns are going to lose a lot of games this year. They have 5000 guards on their roster and anytime a big trade was discussed this summer the Suns were involved. They will likely be moving some players around throughout the year and it probably won’t be to make themselves better right now. Devin Booker has blossomed into a star, but they’re still a long way from making any noise in the loaded Western Conference.

Portland- “Runaway Trains”

“She says “I understand
I’m used to being alone
And holding my own hand.
I’m stronger than you know”

In my Eastern Conference preview I mentioned how I forgot all about Orlando. Portland is the Orlando of the West. Damian Lillard is a great player but when you look at Western Conference point guards (Curry, Westbrook, Paul) it’s easy to forget about him. The difference between the forgetfulness of Portland vs Orlando is that Portland still actually makes the playoffs in forgettable fashion. Portland’s core remains together from last year so they’ll be looking to their two first round picks (Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan) to push them forward. The Trail Blazers embrace being overlooked and use it as a chip on their shoulder. For that reason I think they will make the playoffs again…only to lose to either Golden State or Houston.

Sacramento- “You Don’t Know How it Feels”

“So let’s get to the point, let’s roll another joint
Let’s head on down the road
There’s somewhere I gotta go
And you don’t know how it feels
You don’t know how it feels to be me”

They’ve been so bad for so long. That may change if they can continue to add more young talent like D’Aaron Fox, but this is going to be another long season for Kings’ fans.

San Antonio- “End of the Line”

“Well it’s all right, everything’ll work out fine
Well it’s all right, we’re going to the end of the line”

Another all-star laden song for an all-star laden team. Seriously, check out the video below. Tom Petty, George Harrison, Bob Dylan, Roy Orbison, and Jeff Lynne?! Alright, back to basketball. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will have to retire at some point…I think. We’ve been heading to the end of the line with the Spurs for what feels like forever, but this season does feel like a potential end of an era. Oh, by the way, the Spurs will still have Kawhi Leonard, newly extended Lamarcus Aldridge, and Gregg Popovich so they will be just fine. As far as what to expect this year, the nagging thought in any Spurs fan’s mind last year was “what if Zaza Pachulia doesn’t intentionally take out Kawhi?” The Spurs had the Warriors on the ropes before Kawhi went down and everything fell apart. If a team does upend the Warriors dynasty I’d put my money on the Spurs.

Utah- “Bootleg Flyer”

“I’m a bootleg flyer, and I work alone
I’m a radar hider, turn your head and I’m gone”

Remember when Utah beat the Clippers in the playoffs last year and they actually looked good doing it? Yeah me either. The Jazz lost Gordon Hayward, maybe the most unassuming all star ever, and that will leave a void. It’s not impossible to see them in the playoff hunt with Joe Johnson and Rudy Gobert returning. Donovan Mitchell looked really good over the summer and may eventually fill some of that Hayward hole. The Jazz will be under the radar probably all season and may slip into the playoffs, but I’m not going to bet on it.

Playoff Predictions

East: