Top 5 Kentucky Derby 151 Contenders

We are less than two weeks away from Kentucky Derby 151. It’s so close, you can smell the horse poop. Churchill Downs opens for racing this Saturday. Many Derby horses are already living in the stables and training in the mornings, preparing for the biggest race of their lives.

The 20-horse field is far from set. There have already been a handful of defectors, and they will not be the last. Even though the deck is still being somewhat shuffled, there are a few clear face-cards in this year’s hand.

Before the Kentucky Derby field is drawn on Saturday during Opening Night at Churchill Downs, allow me to introduce my top five contenders for this year’s run for the roses.

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5. Rodriguez

Everybody loves to see a dramatic closing runner hit the wire first. Mine That Bird, Rich Strike, and most recently, Mystik Dan, captivated audiences with their closing move. That’s really difficult to do in a field with 20 horses. Betting on a frontrunner to go wire-to-wire isn’t a bad idea.

East Avenue, Owen Almighty, and Citizin Bull will try to be at the front of the pack, but I prefer Rodriguez in this position for a couple of reasons.

Rodriguez is Bob Baffert’s top horse in the Hall of Fame trainer’s return to the Kentucky Derby. He’s sired by one of Baffert’s Derby winners, Authentic. In that race, Authentic broke poorly, but eventually made its way to the front. The 8-1 shot held off the heavily bet favorite Tiz the Law and went wire-to-wire for the win.

History could repeat itself with Rodriguez. Even though he was previously bested by Journalism, Rodriguez tried to beat the best of the best from off the pace. He looked much more comfortable as a frontrunner in a Wood Memorial win. Betting against Baffert to return with a vengeance to the Kentucky Derby feels like a bad idea.

4. Burnham Square

Most will favor Sandman in this spot. The Tapit colt has the most impressive recent speed figure of the closers, but that Arkansas Derby was a weird race. I don’t trust him as much as I trust Burnham Square.

The gelding beat Tappan Street in the Holy Bully. Even though he had a poor performance in the Fountain of Youth, Burnham Square dug in and delivered an impressive closing move in the Blue Grass Stakes.

3. Sovereignty

I admittedly am not as high on Sovereignty as most, but I can’t ignore the competition this horse has beaten as a closer on the Florida circuit. He’s put up great numbers and if the pace falls apart with a blistering pace at the front, Sovereignty can win the Kentucky Derby.

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2. Tappan Street

I like horses that steadily improve throughout their career. After breaking its maiden with a win in December, Luis Saez learned a lesson in the Holly Bull. You don’t need to ask too much from this horse too early. That move emptied the tank enough to let him get caught by Burnham Square.

Tappan Street’s third career start in the Florida Derby looked much different than the second. Rather than digging in, he appeared to be gliding effortlessly across the dirt. When Saez asked for more after the final turn, that was all she wrote. The most physically impressive colts don’t always finish first in the Kentucky Derby, but it feels like this horse is maturing at the right time to run a big race on the first Saturday in May.

1. Journalism

Journalism will be the biggest favorite we’ve seen since Tiz the Law arrived at Churchill Downs with a Triple Crown victory on his resume in the altered Covid-schedule. You could see this horse at a price lower than 5-2 when the gates open at the Kentucky Derby.

Journalism has the highest speed figure of any horse entering the race, posting a 102 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby victory. Most importantly, this horse has shown that it doesn’t need a perfect trip to win. He got into some trouble in the Santa Anita. He looked cooked. I thought he had already made his move, but he had one more in him to rally for the win. There are concerns that he has not had to run against big fields, but this adaptable horse has what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby and contend for a Triple Crown.