West Region Preview: Florida is the favorite, but St. John's and Rick Pitino linger

The 2025 NCAA Tournament begins this week as 68 teams look to make a run at the national championship.

After previewing the Midwest Region on Sunday (where Kentucky will begin its first tournament appearance under new head Mark Pope), KSR is taking a closer look at the West Region to see who is in it and what the outlook is for the 16 teams entering the Big Dance.

The bracket

1.) Florida vs. 16.) Norfolk State

8.) UConn vs. 9.) Oklahoma

5.) Memphis vs. 12.) Colorado State

4.) Maryland vs. 13.) Grand Canyon

6.) Missouri vs. 11.) Drake

3.) Texas Tech vs. 14.) UNC Wilmington

7.) Kansas vs. 10.) Arkansas

2.) St. John’s vs. 15.) Nebraska Omaha

The schedule

Thursday

Time (ET)	Game	TV / Stream
7:10 p.m.	10) Arkansas vs. (7) Kansas in Providence Andrew Catalon / Steve Lappas // Evan Washburn	CBS
7:35 p.m.	(11) Drake vs. (6) Missouri in Wichita Tom McCarthy / Deb Antonelli, Steve Smith // AJ Ross	truTV
9:45 p.m.	(15) Nebraska Omaha vs. (2) St. John’s in Providence Andrew Catalon / Steve Lappas // Evan Washburn	CBS
10:10 p.m.	(14) UNC Wilmington vs. (3) Texas Tech in Wichita Tom McCarthy / Deb Antonelli, Steve Smith // AJ Ross	truTV

Friday

Time (ET)	Game	TV / Stream
2:00 p.m.	(12) Colorado State vs. (5) Memphis Lisa Byington / Robbie Hummel, Jalen Rose // Andy Katz	TBS
4:35 p.m.	(13) Grand Canyon vs. (4) Maryland Lisa Byington / Robbie Hummel, Jalen Rose // Andy Katz	TBS
6:50 p.m.	(16) Norfolk State vs. (1) Florida Ian Eagle // Bill Raftery, Grant Hill // Tracy Wolfson	TNT
9:25 p.m.	(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) UConn Ian Eagle // Bill Raftery, Grant Hill // Tracy Wolfson	TNT

Efficiency rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.

Team	Overall	Offense	Defense
Florida (1)	2	1	10
Texas Tech (3)	7	6	37
St. John’s (2)	11	65	1
Maryland (4)	12	28	6
Missouri (6)	15	5	73
Kansas (7)	21	48	11
UConn (8)	35	14	94
Oklahoma (9)	38	21	70
Arkansas (10)	40	73	20
Colorado State	42	43	49
Memphis (5)	51	72	40
Drake (11)	58	76	46
Grand Canyon (13)	93	149	67
UNC Wilmington (14)	105	84	184
Nebraska Omaha (15)	156	96	252
Norfolk State (16)	180	168	217

WEST REGION:

Todd Golden trusting the #analytics, Rick Pitino couldn't care less pic.twitter.com/IuoG5dCI6F

— Jack Lichtenstein (@jacklich10) March 16, 2025

Team capsules

1.) Florida

There might not be a hotter team in the country right now than the Florida Gators. Todd Golden‘s squad cruised through the SEC Tournament and rosters one of the best players in the country, Walter Clayton Jr. Florida’s depth and size in the frontcourt mixed with an embarrassment of talent in the backcourt has them covering both ends of the floor incredibly well right now. This is Golden’s best group yet and a path to a Final Four is clearly on the table.

2.) St. John’s

Rick Pitino is back in the Big Dance for the 24th time as a college head coach. He’s doing things his way at St. John’s, too. The Red Storm is statistically the best defensive team in the country but ranks among the bottom half of teams in the NCAA Tournament when it comes to offense (65th). St. John’s will not beat teams from beyond the arc. Dominating the Big East wasn’t as impressive as playing in a conference like the SEC, but Pitino will have his team ready to make a run as he looks to make an eighth Final Four. This is St. John’s highest seed since 2000.

3.) Texas Tech

Texas Tech is on its third head coach in the last five years, but second-year coach Grant McCasland has the Red Raiders back in the tournament for the second straight season. Superstar forward JT Toppin averages 18 points and nine rebounds per outing. He’s talented enough to win Texas Tech a handful of games. Nine Texas Tech players have participated in the NCAA Tournament before, spanning a total of 21 games.

4.) Maryland

Watch out for 6-foot-10 Derik Queen to become a household name in this tournament. The First-Team All-Big Ten performer is one of the best freshmen in the country and a future first-round NBA Draft pick with averages of 16 points and nine rebounds. This will be head coach Kevin Willard‘s second NCAA Tournament appearance in his three years on the job. Maryland’s starting five all average more than 12 points per game and is the best-scoring group of starters in the country.

5.) Memphis

Memphis earned a 5-seed, but the metrics don’t necessarily agree with that. The Tigers rank 40th or worse nationally in adjusted offense and defense. There are 10 teams in this region ranked above Memphis in KenPom. That being said, Penny Hardaway has done a great job with this group, losing just five games on the season while winning the AAC Tournament. Even if Tyrese Hunter can’t go due to injury, PJ Haggerty is a superstar.

6.) Missouri

After an 0-18 finish in the SEC a season ago, head coach Dennis Gates has Missouri back in the tournament in year three. This group is only the third-ever high-major in college basketball history to go winless in conference play one season and make the tournament the next. A 6-seed is the program’s best since 2012. With a Top 5 offense and an All-SEC performer in Mark Mitchell, the Tigers will have enough juice to win a few games. But keep in mind Mizzou lost four of its final five contests heading into the Big Dance.

7.) Kansas

The last time a Bill Self-coached Kansas team didn’t make a top 4 seed was all the way back in 2000 as an 8-seed, but the Jayhawks landed as a 7-seed in 2025. Hunter Dickinson is still one of the best players in the country, but he’s not the All-American he was last season. A matchup against Arkansas in the opening round will draw plenty of eyes as Self looks to get back past the second round for the first time since winning the title in 2022.

8.) UConn

The back-to-back national champions have fallen off this season, but Dan Hurley has the Huskies in the tourney for the fifth straight season. UConn has won five of its last six coming into the Big Dance with a Top 15 offense in hand but a defense that barely ranks inside the Top 100. Freshman wing Liam McNeeley, a projected first-round draft pick, is one to watch as someone who can help win a game all by himself. Dreams of a three-peat are still alive, but a lot will have to go right for the Huskies to reach its seventh Final Four since 1999.

9.) Oklahoma

Another SEC team, Oklahoma enters the NCAA Tournament coming off another devastating loss to former Sooner Otega Oweh and Kentucky in Nashville. But star freshman Jeremiah Fears is a projected lottery pick and can take over a game at a moment’s notice. Jalon Moore is a terrific number two option. Porter Moser might have saved his job by making the tournament for the first time in his four years as head coach.

10.) Arkansas

John Calipari and Arkansas snuck into the Big Dance thanks to a late-season push despite missing a couple of key starters. One of them, freshman Boogie Fland, is expected to return for the tournament, but former Wildcat Adou Thiero remains on the mend. The Razorbacks might have to rely on excellent defense to make a run. Calipari will look to make a Sweet 16 for the first time since the 2018-19 season at UK.

11.) Drake

One of the best stories in college basketball, Drake didn’t skip a beat after losing head coach Darian DeVries to West Virginia. New head coach Ben McCollum has the Bulldogs back in the Big Dance for the third straight season thanks to a 30-win season. Bennett Stirtz and Mitch Mascari lead the entire country in percentage of minutes played at over 95 percent each. Stirtz is a star and could create a Cinderella story for Drake.

12.) Colorado State

Colorado State brings a 10-game winning streak in the tournament, including three straight wins to take home the Mountain West Tournament title. Head coach Niko Medved, now in his seventh season in charge, has led the Rams to a third tournament appearance in four years. This balanced group ranks Top 50 in both offense and defense. Nique Clifford is one of the most underrated and efficient players in all of college basketball. Colorado State is trending as a popular upset pick and is even favored to beat 5-seed Memphis in the first round.

13.) Grand Canyon

Coached by Scott Drew, Grand Canyon has now made the NCAA Tournament in four of his five seasons in charge. Offense isn’t this group’s strong suit, but they have experience against P4 schools from earlier in the season against Arizona State, Stanford, and Georgia. Grand Canyon will try to live at the free-throw line and bank on its Top 70 defense showing up.

14.) UNC Wilmington

Head coach Takayo Siddle, 38, has UNC Wilmington dancing for the first time in his five-year tenure. Lead guard Donovan Newby helped fuel the Seahawks through the CAA Tournament, winning Most Outstanding Player along the way. UNCW is a Top 30 offensive rebounding team in the nation.

15.) Nebraska Omaha

This will be the first-ever NCAA Tournament berth for Nebraska Omaha since transitioning to Division I ahead of the 2011-12 season. The Mavericks are led by third-year head coach Chris Crutchfield, who was named Summit League Coach of the Year. 6-foot-8 senior Marquel Sutton is the league’s Player of the Year, as well. This is a battle-tested group, having faced four of KenPom’s Top 100 teams in the non-conference.

16.) Norfolk State

Now in year 12 as head coach, Robert Jones is only getting better. He has Norfolk State in the tourney for the third time in five seasons after winning the MEAC Tournament. This group doesn’t shoot the three-ball well or all that often, but is efficient from two and gets to the line plenty.

Odds

How does Vegas see this region shaking out? According to FanDuel, Florida is a clear-cut favorite coming off its impressive run in the SEC Tournament. Despite receiving a 5-seed, Memphis holds the 11th-best odds to win the region. Calipari and Arkansas are set at +6000 odds to reach the Final Four while Pitino and St. John’s sit at +600 odds to win the region.

Team	Odds to win the West
Florida	-125
Texas Tech	+550
St. John’s	+600
Maryland	11/1
Kansas	14/1
Missouri	14/1
UConn	24/1
Arkansas	60/1
Colorado State	60/1
Oklahoma	85/1
Memphis	90/1
Drake	140/1
Nebraska Omaha	250/1
UNC Wilmington	250/1
Norfolk State	250/1
Grand Canyon	250/1