Joe Lunardi is the bracketology equivalent of UK-obsessed fans who camp out for days in the cold for Midnight Madness (I still refuse to believe it has changed to Big Blue Madness) tickets. He eats, sleeps and breathes bracketology. In his latest set of predictions, Lunardi has Kentucky squeezing in the tournament with a little room to spare as a 10-seed. After yesterday's assortment of games, surprises and upsets,
Lunardi made a few quick updates to his "Last 4 in", "First 4 out" and "Teams Moving In/Out."
As of 11 p.m. last night, here's how Lunardi sees things shaking out:
Last 4 in: Temple, Boise State, Wyoming, Villanova
First 4 out: Arizona State, Maryland, St. Mary's, Iowa
Moving IN: Iowa State, La Salle
Moving OUT: Maryland, St. Mary's
Although Kentucky has been teetering dangerously close to "the bubble," the teams listed above are in fact the current teams making up "the bubble." We know what Kentucky has done this season (13-6 overall, 4-2 SEC, RPI: 65, Pomeroy:23). We know the resume'. We know the wins. We know the losses. We know the potential. We know the reality. Let's take a look at what the current "bubble teams" have done...
*Wins over ranked opponents indicate the ranking of the opponent AT THE TIME of the win, not the current ranking
1. Temple
Atlantic 10 13-6 overall (2-3 conference) RPI: 57
Good wins: Villanova (very early), #3 Syracuse,
The losses: 90-67 to #2 Duke, 72-62 to Canisius, 69-62 to #6 Kansas, 57-52 to Xavier, 81-78 to St. Bonaventure, 83-71 to #9 Butler
Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to St. Bonaventure and Butler
Chances for good wins remaining: vs. #19 VCU
2. Boise State
Mountain West 14-5 overall (2-3 conference) RPI: 58
Good wins: #11 Creighton
The losses: 74-70 to #15 Michigan State, 76-55 to Utah, 79-74 to #19 New Mexico (OT), 91-80 to Air Force, 75-59 to Nevada
Last 4 games: 1-3 with losses to New Mexico, Air Force and Nevada
Chances for good wins remaining: @ #15 New Mexico, @UNLV
3. Wyoming
Mountain West 15-4 overall (2-4 conference) RPI: 54
Good wins: #19 Colorado, #15 San Diego State
The losses: 63-61 to Boise State, 49-36 to Fresno State, 62-50 to UNLV, 57-48 to Air Force
Last 4 games: 1-3 with losses to Fresno State, UNLV and Air Force
Chances for good wins remaining: #15 New Mexico, UNLV
4. Villanova
Big East 13-7 overall (4-3 conference) RPI: 52
Good wins: #5 Louisville, #3 Syracuse
The losses: 77-55 to Alabama, 75-57 to Columbia, 77-74 to La Salle (OT), 76-61 to Temple, 72-61 to Syracuse, 58-43 to Pittsburgh, 69-66 to Providence
Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to Pittsburgh and Providence
Chances for good wins remaining: @ #24 Notre Dame, @ #21 Cincinnati
5. Arizona State
Pac-12 16-4 overall (5-2 conference) RPI: 53
Good wins: UCLA
The losses: 87-73 to #14 Creighton, 78-61 to DePaul, 68-65 to Oregon, 71-54 to #7 Arizona
Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to Oregon and Arizona
Chances for good wins remaining: @ UCLA, @ #6 Arizona
6. Maryland
ACC 15-5 overall (3-4 conference) RPI: 60
Good wins: NC State
The losses: 72-69 to #3 Kentucky, 65-62 to Florida State, 54-47 to Miami (FL), 62-52 to North Carolina, 84-64 to #1 Duke
Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to North Carolina and Duke
Chances for good wins remaining: #1 Duke
7. St. Mary's
West Coast 17-4 overall (6-1 conference) RPI: 59
Good wins:
The losses: 76-66 to Pacific, 65-56 to Georgia Tech, 82-75 to Northern Iowa, 83-78 to #9 Gonzaga
Last 4 games: 4-0 with wins over BYU, Portland, San Diego and Pepperdine
Chances for good wins remaining: #10 Gonzaga
8. Iowa
Big Ten 13-6 overall (2-4 conference) RPI: 74
Good wins: Wisconsin
The losses: 75-63 to Wichita State, 95-79 to Virginia Tech, 69-65 to #5 Indiana, 95-67 to #2 Michigan, 62-59 to #22 Michigan State, 72-63 to #14 Ohio State
Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State
Chances for good wins remaining: @ #12 Minnesota, @ #7 Indiana
9. Iowa State
Big 12 14-5 overall (4-2 conference) RPI: 39
Good wins: #11 Kansas State
The losses: 78-70 to #22 Cincinnati, 82-70 to #18 UNLV, 80-71 to Iowa, 97-89 (OT) to #6 Kansas, 56-51 to Texas Tech
Last 4 games: 3-1 with a loss Texas Tech, wins over West Virginia, TCU and #11 Kansas State
Chances for good wins remaining: @ #11 Kansas State, #3 Kansas,
10. La Salle
Atlantic 10 14-5 overall (4-2 conference) RPI: 26
Good wins: Villanova, #9 Butler, #19 VCU
The losses: 81-74 to Central Connecticut State, 74-66 to Bucknell, 76-59 to Miami (FL), 74-65 to Charlotte, 70-63 to Xavier
Chances for good wins remaining:
When looking at the 10 teams listed above who make up the current "bubble," the biggest thing I keep thinking is: How is the NCAA going to find 68 teams to put in the tournament? Kentucky still has way too many games left to feel safe about inclusion or worried about exclusion. But for those who are worried about Kentucky being a tournament team or not TODAY...
looking at the 10 teams who are currently on the bubble, could you find 68 teams with better resumes than Kentucky's? Ohhh, this year in college basketball...
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