What Kentucky Must Do to Beat Tennessee

Kentucky has dropped two consecutive road games to Georgia and Mississippi State after storming out of the gate with a 6-0 record. Simplicity can be the best solution when adversity strikes. So, what must Kentucky do to beat Tennessee? Easy answer. Do the exact opposite of what it did last Saturday in Starkville. Let’s get into pregame goals for the Cats. 

OFFENSE

Remember, we’re going back to basics. Chris Rodriguez Jr. averaged twenty carries and 128 yards in Kentucky’s six victories. The running back averaged 7.5 rushing attempts for just 21 yards per outing in the Wildcats’ two-game losing skid. Rodriguez Jr. must get back on track for Kentucky to win. Mark Stoops said that C-Rod has been dealing with an issue. While vague, it’s evident that he’s not been right. UK’s offense runs through number 24. The Cats need a classic Rodriguez Jr. performance in order to beat Tennessee. 

Kentucky’s explosiveness in the passing game has all but disappeared. Deep shots have failed to be executed due to a myriad of reasons. Designated home run hitter Wan’Dale Robinson averaged 15.3 yards per catch in weeks one through six. That number dropped to 6-yards per reception in losses against Georgia and Mississippi State. Will Levis played his best two games of the season against LSU and Georgia. His worst outing came in UK’s loss to MSU. Much like Rodriguez Jr., UK will need its quarterback to have a bounce back performance in order to have a chance. The Big Blue Wall needs to play big on Saturday. A return to form is required. Here’s what the Cats must do on offense to improve to 7-2. 

Run the football

See above. UK wins games when it efficiently runs the football. Tennessee ranks first in the SEC and second in the nation with 70 tackles for loss. Linebacker Jeremy Banks is the team leader with 9.5 TFLs. There are going to be run plays that gain little or lose yardage much like against Mississippi State. The Cats have to commit to the run and not waiver. Getting into an aerial track meet would play into UT’s hands. The Wildcats have dropped to fifth in the SEC by running for 175 yards per game. UK will need to surpass that number. 

Win Time of Possession

See above Part II. The best way to keep the UT offense off the field is to live in the S.L.O.P. (Sustained-Long-Offensive-Possessions). Hendon Hooker and Josh Heupel can’t score from the sideline. Mississippi State owned this stat-line a week ago. The Bulldogs held the football for 41:10 compared to 18:50 for the Cats. A repeat of that lopsided number could extend UK’s losing skid to three games. 

Hold on to the Football

Kentucky ranks last in the nation with a -12 turnover margin. UK can’t lose in that category on Saturday night. Period. The Cats can’t afford to contribute additional possessions to that potent UT offense. This especially applies in the first quarter. A single turnover in the first quarter could spell doom for the Cats given UT’s history of fast starts in the game’s first fifteen minutes. 

Score a bunch of Points

Defensive trends have been on a downward spiral during Kentucky’s two-game losing streak. Georgia and Mississippi State combined to average 30.5-points and 7.4-yards per play. Tennessee’s offense is creative, capable and threatening. It’s also scoring 37-points per contest. The numbers say that the Volunteers are going to score points in bunches. Additionally, UT has outscored its opponents 124-30 in the first quarter. A fast offensive start will be exceptionally important.

Kentucky cannot afford to get behind by two possessions late in the game due to the defense’s inability to create turnovers. Just how many points will be required? A bunch. 

DEFENSE

Mississippi State had its way against the Wildcats. Quarterback Will Rogers broke records on his way to completing 92% of his passes. Mike Leach improbably committed to running the football and out-rushed the Cats. The Wildcats were often out of position which led to 21 missed tackles. Kentucky registered two quarterback sacks early in the game but failed to alter Rogers down the stretch. The Miss State quarterback carved up the Wildcats’ secondary with more than ample time in the pocket.  

Hendon Hooker is the best quarterback that UK will have faced in 2021. The Virginia Tech transfer has thrown 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He is statistically the most efficient quarterback in the SEC. Hooker is averaging 197 yards per game and is completing 70% of his passes. The mobile signal caller astutely executes the RPO and runs for 52 yards per contest. 

Tennessee is explosive and operates at a warp speed tempo that frequently forces opposing defenses to become off balanced or misaligned. While its passing game is pretty, the Volunteer’s intent will be to run the football down Kentucky’s throat. UT runs for 226 yards per game which ranks 13th in the nation. Let’s dive deeper. 

Slow the Vols’ roll

Josh Heupel’s offense will deploy wide splits and exceed the speed limit. Brad White is faced with a difficult task of scheming against a fastball system that runs the football with power. That combination is rare by the way. Tennessee averages 6.3 yards per play and 457 total yards per game. Receivers Velus Jones Jr. and Cedric Tillman have both recorded over thirty catches and average 14 and 15 yards per reception respectively. JaVonta Payton’s 24 yards per catch presents a matchup problem on the outside. The Vols’ intent will be to get vertical in the passing game. 

The key to Saturday is to counter, survive, and contain UT’s tempo. First down stops will be critical. Third and medium-short downs hurt the Cats last week. Substitutions are difficult against tempo. Alignment, gap, and assignment sound techniques are non-negotiables vs. UT’s RPO-heavy call sheet. Fail to do so, and it could be a long, cold night. 

Compete

Mark Stoops was not happy with his pass defense against Mississippi State. This especially applied to the cornerback position. UT will present several of the identical stressors that Mike Leach utilized so efficiently a week ago. Wide splits will align receivers outside the numbers which will lead to corners being in multiple one-on-one situations. The difference is Tennessee will want to get vertical. Defending at the top of routes has been an issue for the Kentucky defense. Interceptions and pass breakups have been minimal. This has to change on Saturday. 

“Compete” also applies against the run. With unusually wide splits, UT places a great deal of pressure on defenders to make solo tackles in the open field. Running back Tiyon Evans averages 6.45-yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns. Quarterback Hendon Hooker is second on the team with 417-yards on the ground and four scores. 

The Cats will have to be in the proper position to make tackles against explosive playmakers in space. Monday’s press conference was unpleasant. The UK head coach was obviously unhappy that his defense was pushed around by an Air Raid offense. The Wildcats have to be the most physical football team on Saturday night. 

Tackle 

Brad White said that his defense missed 21 tackles against Mississippi State. Twenty-one. Tackling can be considered as a “Compete” category. Missing that many tackles with an offense that turned the football over four times led to an instant and deflating road loss. Tennessee will stress the Cats in space. Getting ball carriers and pass catchers to the ground will be paramount. The Volunteers rank last in the SEC after allowing 28 quarterback sacks. Hooker is elusive, but the Cats have to sack the quarterback when opportunities are presented. 

Make an Extraordinary Play

Kentucky will struggle to win in a shootout vs. that offense. A strip sack, pick 6, or any other development that takes away possessions from the visitors will be mandatary. 

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Kentucky is coming off its best special team’s performance of the season. Josh Ali came back from injury and housed a 74 yard punt return for a score. The field goal team cleaned up an issue that led to a couple blocked kicks against Georgia. Coverage teams were solid. Collin Goodfellow continues to excel after averaging 53.7-yards per punt. Here’s what the third phase has to do vs. the Volunteers. 

Repeat Performance

Again, we are keeping it simple this week. The third phase needs to play like it did at Mississippi State. 

What Does All This Mean? 

Can the Wildcats put together a complimentary game after a disappointing outing against Mississippi State? We’ll see. Kentucky will also need a return to its identity as a physical football team that can run the football and own the time of possession to secure the victory. The defense has to compete at all three levels. May sound simple, but it’s true. Winning contested pass plays, getting home on the pass rush, and efficient tackling in space could lead to a rebound from a downward statistical spiral that’s led to two consecutive losses. 

The Volunteers present an abundance of problems that will stress the Kentucky offense and defense. Let’s be honest. These two teams don’t like each other very much. Same can be said of the fan bases. UK whipped the Vols in Knoxville a year ago. UT will be looking for payback on the cold Kroger Field turf. 

Saturday night will define the season for the 2021 Wildcats. A win would get the Cats back on track after a couple tough road trips. To say that there’s a lot on the line when the Cats and Vols face off would be a tremendous understatement. Should be a good one.