What Kentucky WBB's NCAA Tournament seeding means for a chance at a big run

On Selection Sunday, we learned that Kentucky will be a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament, taking on 13-seed Liberty in the first round on Friday, March 21 (noon ET on ESPN). If Kentucky were to win, they’d face the winner of 5-seed Kansas State and 12-seed Fairfield in the Round of 32.

Let’s break things down even further and talk about what Kentucky’s draw means for their chances at making a big run.

Kentucky gets to host

This is the most important part to take away from the draw. Although it was probably expected for Kentucky to get a 3-seed, a 4-seed is still good enough to get to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

It goes without saying, but getting to play in Historic Memorial Coliseum should be a massive, massive advantage for Kentucky. The Cats went 14-2 at home this season, only losing to No. 5 Texas and No. 10 LSU. Kenny Brooks and the team have done a phenomenal job of defending home territory this season.

However, it’s also just good for the fans.

Big Blue Nation has rallied around this team all season long — especially since SEC play — and it’s great that the fans get one, potentially two more games to watch Kentucky in-person. Hopefully, BBN gets to watch Kentucky punch their ticket to Spokane.

That’s a rough but manageable second round draw

If Kentucky is able to get by Liberty, they’ll have to face either Fairfield or Kansas State.

The Stags are 28-4 this season, and they’ve only lost one game since the turn of the new year. Carly Thibault-DuDonis was probably the lead candidate for the Kentucky job this offseason before she ultimately decided to stay at Fairfield. In 2013-14, she worked in Florida State’s administration where current UK assistant Josh Petersen was serving as a graduate assistant.

As for Kansas State, they sit at 26-7 on the year. They had a rocky end to their season, going 4-5 and losing to No. 16 West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals. Their best player and one of the best in the country, Ayoka Lee, suffered a foot fracture which sidelined her for a bit over a month of the season.

The 6-foot-6 center returned to action against Kansas on February 22nd, only to re-injure her foot. She hasn’t played since then, but it appears that she will be available for the NCAA Tournament.

With Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama being the other 5-seeds, Kansas State was always going to be the one in Kentucky’s region since the committee tries to prevent intra-conference matchups for as long as they can. It’s just unfortunate that Kansas State ended up being a 5-seed. If they were healthy all year long, they could very well be in that 3-seed range. Point being, the Wildcats are probably better than what their seed suggests.

Both Fairfield and Kansas State are dangerous teams that could bust a bracket or two this March.

Looks like it’ll be 1-seed USC in Spokane

Hopefully, Kentucky can make use of their home court advantage and make it to the Sweet 16. They’ll head out to Spokane, WA if they do, and more than likely, they’d be taking on 1-seed USC.

The 28-3 Trojans — like every 1-seed — are very good, and they could very well be hoisting up the trophy in Tampa in a few weeks. USC has arguably the best player in the country, JuJu Watkins, on their team. The sophomore guard is averaging 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.9 blocks per game. There’s also Stanford transfer forward Kiki Iriafen who averages 18.2 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.

This seems like the most likely end for Kentucky’s March Madness run, but in a one-game scenario, you never know. Unfortunately, with the game being out west, the Trojans will certainly have a home court-type advantage, making an upset all the more difficult.

If Kentucky were to pull off the win, it looks like they’d face 2-seed UConn in the Elite Eight. In 2012 and 2013, Kentucky lost to UConn in the Elite Eight under Matthew Mitchell. History doesn’t favor the Cats there, but hey, it’s a new era, right?

Regardless, let’s just see what happens

Now that Kentucky’s in the big dance, let’s just enjoy the ride.

Will Kentucky get upset in the first round? Will they make it to Spokane? Will Kenny Brooks lead Kentucky to its first-ever Final Four? Will the Cats hoist the National Championship trophy in Tampa on April 6th? Who knows.

This is the first time that we’ve even been able to ask those questions since the 2021-22 season. We can all agree that Kenny Brooks has done a terrific job in year one in Lexington. Let’s just enjoy what time we have left this season — what time we have left with Georgia Amoore and Dazia Lawrence.