What Power Ratings say about the 2024 Kentucky Football Team

In the middle of the summer, college football fans play the schedule game. There’s a range of potential final records on the table, and it’s all based on how your team fares in toss-up games on the schedule. For Kentucky football fans, it’s a little more difficult this summer.

For what feels like the 17th straight season, Kentucky is breaking in a new offensive play-caller and transfer portal quarterback. There’s uncertainty there. There is also a daunting schedule, something not unusual in the SEC, but finding even one road win might be a task too tall for this team to conquer. It all depends on how much you believe in the team.

That belief is an intangible feeling. There are college football nerds across the country who prefer to work with tangible numbers to create power ratings that project what will happen in their favorite sport. Allow me to share what some of these power ratings say about this year’s Kentucky football team.

Two ESPN Power Ratings

In case you missed it, SP+ is rather bullish on the Cats. Kentucky ranks No. 25 overall and is No. 14 in returning production, the best in the SEC. Using their formula, KSR has calculated that Kentucky will be favored in seven games and underdogs in three others with two toss-ups.

FPI is ESPN’s other metric and those numbers aren’t as confident in Mark Stoops’ team. Kentucky ranks No. 34 and is projected to go 6-6. According to FPI, Kentucky has the fifth-most difficult schedule in college football.

Adam McClintock, The College Football Professor

McClintock is a co-founder of Matrix Analytical, which provides third-party analytics services to programs across the country. Their model is right on par with FPI, projecting a 6-6 season for the Kentucky Wildcats.

#SEC Model Win Totals
12 #UGA
11 #LSU
11 #Texas
10 #OleMiss
9 #Mizzou
9 #Bama #RTR
9 #Tennessee #Vols
9 #Sooners
8 #Auburn #WarEagle
7 #TAMU #GigEm
6 #Florida #Gators
6 #Kentucky #BBN
4 #SouthCarolina #SpursUp
4 #Arkansas #WPS
3 #Vanderbilt #AnchorDown
2 #MissState #HailState

— Adam McClintock (@cfb_professor) July 2, 2024

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Kelley Ford’s KFord Power Ratings

Understanding all of the numbers can be a challenge if you’re not a numbers savant. That’s why Kelley Ford’s KFord Ratings are so convenient. He has easy-to-read charts to help us discern what they specifically mean.

Yesterday he unveiled team sheets for every SEC program and the Wildcats rank just outside of the Top 25 at No. 31. The offense, defense, and special teams units are all in a similar ballpark, ranked in the 30s. Kentucky is projected to win 6.3 games this fall, and it has breakdowns for every single game.

There are a couple of other interesting graphs he shared on social media. Instead of simply stating what you are expected to be based on the numbers, he’s allowing fanbases to dream big. What would it take for Kentucky to be in the CFB Playoff conversation? They’re on a short list of programs that can win nine games and be in consideration. Additionally, Ford’s power ratings project the SEC standings, where Kentucky is expected to go 3-5 in the first year of the 16-team conference.

A quick summary: the numbers say Kentucky is a 6-6 football team in 2024. To exceed expectations, the Cats must eliminate sloppy play or fall victims to the SEC’s narrow margin of error.