What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Kentucky will play a road game for the third time of the season on Saturday night, and once again, it is against a currently ranked foe. However, this feels like the toughest challenge to date for the Wildcats.

After a much-needed week off to let star quarterback Will Levis heal up, Kentucky is heading down I-75 this weekend to see if they can be the team that can spoil the current dream season No. 3 Tennessee is having. A big stage has arrived for Kentucky football.

A program-defining win is 60 minutes away in a rivalry matchup. Let’s dive into what we know about this highly anticipated SEC East clash.

Strength vs. strength

Ohio State and Tennessee have a case for the best offense in college football this season. That is playing out in the Heisman Trophy odds as C.J. Stroud and Hendon Hooker are currently the heavy favorites entering Week 9. Outside of Pittsburgh, no one has had any answers for the Tennessee offense.

Up the road in Lexington, defensive coordinator Brad White has built a top-10 unit. The Cats are a zone-heavy team that has been stout against the run and strong against the pass. Pass rush is not a strength, but offenses have struggled to be efficient against Kentucky this season, and once again, the big-play prevention has been strong. There might not be any true stars on this defense but perhaps no one plays better team defense as opposing SEC offenses are averaging just 15.2 points per game with Florida (21), Ole Miss (15), Mississippi State (29), and South Carolina (45) all ranking inside the top 50 of SP+’s offensive rankings.

Kentucky has stopped good offenses, and Tennessee has scored on good defenses. Saturday will be a battle of good on good in Neyland Stadium.

Kentucky needs a strong performance from Will Levis

Protection has been an issue for Kentucky’s offensive line throughout the season. Will Levis has taken a lot of hits. Despite all of the pressure, the redshirt senior has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in college football.

The NFL prospect is completing 69.5 percent of his 27.3 throws per game ranking No. 3 nationally in yards per attempt (10.0). Levis has a strong success rate (53%) when taking out sacks and has 38 completions of 15-plus yards this season. Kentucky’s QB1 has been good all season and needs to take advantage of an advantageous matchup on Saturday.

Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 91 in defensive passing success rate and No. 114 in passing EPA. The Vols are also dealing with injuries at cornerback. A ball control offense will be critical for Kentucky to shrink the game, but offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello cannot be afraid to let his start QB cook.

The opportunity is there for Levis to have one of the best games of his Kentucky career on Saturday. QB1 will have to make some big throws for the Cats to leave Rocky Top with a victory.

Hendon Hooker does not throw interceptions

Even if Kentucky limits Tennessee to 10 possessions or less at Neyland Stadium, it could still be really hard to get stops. Most of that is due to the super senior quarterback who is in his second year at Tennessee.

Former Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker leads college football in yards per attempt (10.8), ranks No. 8 in completion percentage (70.6%), and has a very strong passing success rate (55.4%). The veteran QB provides elite efficiency and explosiveness while taking a lot of vertical shots (11.9 yards average air yards per pass). But what Hooker does best is avoid negative plays.

The veteran quarterback has only thrown 11 career interceptions in 800 attempts, and those numbers have gotten even better in Knoxville. Hooker has a very low pass breakup/interception rate (4.1%) as his throws are rarely in harm’s way. Therefore, it can be hard to create takeaways.

But the same ball security isn’t there when the ball is not in the air.

Hooker has fumbled 37 times during his career with 20 coming at Tennessee. The veteran quarterback consistently puts the ball on the turf and has done it five times this season. Meanwhile, leading rusher Jaylen Wright has fumbled three times this season.

Kentucky likely won’t leave Rocky Top with a win without creating a takeaway or two. The Cats will likely need to fall on a fumble for that to happen.

Kentucky’s offense must finish drives

Even if Kentucky succeeds at shrinking the game and establishing their methodical tempo in the SEC East matchup, it won’t matter if the Cats cannot finish drives.

The Wildcats are creating their fair share of scoring opportunities this season, but the offense has had issues finishing drives with points. Meanwhile, Tennessee enters this game ranked No. 16 in defensive red zone touchdown rate (46.7%) despite ranking No. 94 in total red zone possessions (30).

Kentucky should have success moving the ball between the 20s, but the game will likely be decided when the Cats get into the red zone. It could be hard to run it in against a strong Tennessee rush defense that ranks No. 8 in yards per rush, No. 18 in rushing success rate, and No. 7 in rushing EPA.

Once again, Will Levis will need to deliver for the Big Blue in critical situations. Offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello’s unit has to finish scoring opportunities with points.