What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

After a big win in a swing game last week, Kentucky returns to Kroger Field for the remainder of the 2022 college football season with a chance to close strong. The first order of business is beating Vanderbilt for the seventh consecutive time.

Both the Wildcats and Commodores enter the Week 11 contest off of opposite results as things are in a tailspin for Clark Lea’s program and Mark Stoops’ club has a chance to close strong.

All signs point to this being a potential get-right spot for Kentucky football. Let’s dive into what we know before toe meets leather on Saturday afternoon.

Vanderbilt’s pass defense is very, very porous

Opponents are scoring 36.8 points (No. 124 nationally) on 6.8 yards per play (No. 126 nationally) against Vandy’s defense this season. Most notably, it has been very easy to move the ball through the air against this defense.

The Commodores rank No. 124 in passing success rate, No. 128 in yards per attempt, No. 130 in passing EPA, and No. 130 in QB rating. Defensive coordinator Nick Howell’s unit has given up 25 touchdown passes this season with five opponents throwing for over 300 yards.

Every Power Five foe has reached at least 8.4 yards per attempt when facing Vandy this season. This feels like a very good matchup for Will Levis and the Kentucky passing game.

Expect a run-heavy approach

With true freshman quarterback AJ Swann taking over on the West End, Vandy started to really let the ball fly through the air. The Commodores have thrown the ball at least 33 times in three of the last four outings. That likely won’t be the case in Lexington.

Mike Wright will get his fourth start of the season for Vanderbilt and the best thing the junior from Atlanta does is make plays with his feet. The former high three-star prospect has rushed for 336 non-sack yards this season on 7.8 yards per rush with a 53.5 percent success rate. That will team up nicely with the offense’s workhorse tailback.

Ray Davis missed most of last season with an injury but has logged 733 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per rush this season. The veteran is a huge part of the offense with 20.6 intended touches (30 targets, 155 carries) per game. Vandy’s offense is at its best when Davis can provide efficiency.

Look for offensive coordinator Joey Lynch to try and control the game with a methodical rushing attack that will feature a heavy dose of Davis and some designed runs for the athletic quarterback. Kentucky’s run defense must be sound on Saturday.

Poor special teams play

Everyone knows that Kentucky is really riding the struggle bus in the kicking game. The same could be said for Vanderbilt.

Former Alabama transfer Joseph Bulovas is just 5 of 9 on field goals and has missed three attempts of 40-plus yards. That has taken away some scoring opportunities for the offense.

Matt Hayball has been a strength booming 13 punts of 50-plus yards and landing 14 inside the 20 but has a net average of 40.3 thanks to strong return numbers. Opponents are averaging 13.4 yards per return against Vandy.

In the return game, Will Sheppard has struggled to get anything going on punts, and on kickoffs, no Vandy player has had a return larger than 32 yards. Meanwhile, Bulovas has a small touchback rate (45.5%).

Kentucky enters this matchup not facing an obvious mismatch in the kicking game with a huge opportunity to flip the field position battle in the return game.

The Cats owned the hidden yardage battle last week against Missouri and that played a major role in the win. Kentucky will have a great chance to win that important battle again on Saturday.