What we know heading into Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

Kentucky will host Mississippi State on Saturday night, and once again it feels like the biggest game on the schedule for the Wildcats.

After losing to top-10 Ole Miss in heartbreaking fashion on the road, Kentucky returned to Kroger Field last weekend and had to play South Carolina without Will Levis. The results were disastrous as the team played its worst game of the season in a division tilt.

There will be stakes on Saturday night. Let’s dive into what we know about this crucial cross-divisional contest.

Kentucky desperately needs a win

A “must-win game” is a statement often thrown out in the sports talk world, but it is often an overreaction. Kentucky’s Week 7 game against Mississippi State is not a “must-win game”, but it’s hard to avoid the obvious if the Cats head into the bye week with three consecutive conference losses.

Kentucky could be looking at a 6-6 season and a clear step back if the program is unable to pull the mild upset against Mississippi State.

With remaining games against top-10 Georgia and Tennessee, UK could be looking at two likely losses to set their most likely final record at 7-5. Another upset loss could have the Cats scratching and clawing for bowl eligibility.

However, there is also a scenario where Kentucky bounces back with a win, makes a feasible run at nine victories, and spends the entire season in the AP Top 25. A lot is on the line at Kroger Field. The Cats need to bounce back strong before the bye week and to avoid a month-long stretch without a victory.

Mississippi State is efficient

Perhaps the most talked about on-field aspect regarding Mississippi State this week is the fact that Mike Leach has a rushing attack this season. The Bulldogs rushed for a combined 317 yards in home wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M, but this is still a pass-first and pass-second offense.

Leach’s offense has only logged 30-plus rush attempts in two games this season, and those numbers were compiled in blowout wins over Memphis and Arkansas. Will Rogers has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each game with a season-high 50 attempts against Bowling Green. State leads the country in pass play percentage (65.4%) as the DNA has not changed.

But regardless of what Leach calls, this remains a very efficient offense.

The Bulldogs are No. 16 nationally in offensive success rate as Rogers along with tailbacks Dillon Johnson and Jo’quavious Marks each have individual success rates over 50 percent both on the ground and through the air.

MSU’s efficiency shows up in the red zone where the offense has scored 19 touchdowns in 21 possessions as Leach’s offense is one of the best in college football at finishing drives with points. However, creating explosives can be an issue.

State ranks just inside the top 50 nationally in 20-plus yard plays as creating chunk plays is not a strength as the Bulldogs ran No. 39 overall in yards per play. The Air Raid offense wants to beat teams with passing precision and create yards after catch opportunities for their skill position players.

If the Bulldogs get behind the chains they can be in trouble, but getting them there is easier said than done.

The run can be established

For the second week in a row, Kentucky will be facing an SEC foe that struggles to stop the run. Can the Cats produce their best rushing performance of the season again?

Against South Carolina, Rich Scangarello’s offense rushed for 175 non-sack yards on 5.8 yards per attempt paced by Chris Rodriguez Jr. and his 63.6 percent success rate on 22 carries. Unfortunately, the passing game could not support that rushing success as Kentucky had its worst game of the season without Levis.

Now the hope is that the return of QB1 will allow the Cats to have their best offensive performance of the season as running the ball is feasible against Mississippi State. Through six games, the Bulldogs rank No. 99 overall in yards per rush, No. 82 in rushing EPA, and No. 60 in rushing success rate. The 3-3-5 stack defense has had issues fitting the run.

Kentucky should be able to achieve balance, and that could lead to some good things for the small home underdog.