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What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Ohio

Adam Luckettby:Adam Luckettabout 9 hours

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Kentucky RB Jamarion Wilcox loses his helmet vs Georgia
Kentucky RB Jamarion Wilcox loses his helmet vs Georgia, via Dr. Michael Huang, KSR

Kentucky is looking to end a two-game losing streak. Ohio is looking to extend a two-game winning streak. The Wildcats will play their second non-conference game of the season on Saturday afternoon and are looking to build momentum after an impressive team performance against No. 1 Georgia.

After a week full of recapping the Georgia loss and taking an early look at Ohio, now feels like a good time to take a step back and take a closer look at what we learned this week. Kentucky likely doesn’t need to play its best game to win in Week 4, but a clunker could put the Cats in trouble.

Let’s dive in.

Tackle, tackle, tackle

Kentucky’s defense is fresh off an inspiring performance. The Wildcats won the battle at the line of scrimmage, were sticky in coverage, and had star Georgia quarterback Carson Beck rattled for most of the game. Can the Wildcats keep playing to that standard?

Tackling will be a major point of emphasis in the Week 4 matchup.

Ohio runs a shotgun-heavy 11-personnel offense that leans run-first. The Bobcats will involve the quarterback in the run game plan that includes a variation of zone and gap schemes. In the passing game, Ohio wants to get rid of the ball quickly and ask their receivers to create after the catch.

Ohio’s offense will test every defense’s ability to tackle.

Starting tailback Anthony Tyus III is averaging 7.5 yards per rush and has forced 26 missed tackles in 49 rushing attempts. The Big Ten transfer is averaging over five yards after contact. Kentucky must get the big running back down on the ground or explosives could occur in the rushing attack. If that happens, Ohio gets more difficult to defend.

Rocket Sanders and Trevor Etienne forced seven tackles on 32 rushing attempts, according to PFF data. If Kentucky produces a similar performance there should be a lot of short drives for Ohio.

Finding explosives

Kentucky currently has an explosive play problem. Part of the reason that the Wildcats have lost the last two games is because they lost the explosive play problem. That must begin to change.

The Wildcats produced an impressive 30.9 percent explosive play rate in the win over Southern Miss, but all of those chunk plays have disappeared. Bush Hamdan‘s offense must find a way to rediscover the explosives, but Kentucky cannot get too far away from its identity.

Through the first three weeks, we have learned that Kentucky’s traditional run game is better than expected. The efficiency produced has allowed the offense to stay ahead of the chains. Kentucky must not get away from that identity, but the offense must get creative and try to create some chunk plays.

The rushing and passing attacks could each help in this regard. Progress must be made in this area in Week 4 for the offense to take a step forward. Can the receivers get rolling? Will Jamarion Wilcox find some big runs after flashing in a big way against Georgia? Will the wildcat formation package get more looks?

Expect to see some experimentation as Kentucky tries to get more explosive.

Turn havoc into takeaways

Kentucky’s defense ranks No. 1 overall in havoc rate. Despite all of the negative plays, the Wildcats have forced just three takeaways in three games. It’s not time to panic yet. Facing an Ohio offense with major ball security issues at quarterback, some more turnover opportunities will arrive on Saturday.

Kentucky needs to capitalize.

Ohio’s offensive line is struggling through three games. Kentucky’s defensive line currently looks like one of the best in college football. Winning at the line of scrimmage should create some turnover opportunities. Keeping this havoc rate up will ultimately lead to some game-swinging plays for this defense.

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2024-09-21