What we know heading into Kentucky vs. South Carolina

Kentucky is looking to bounce back quickly following a close three-point road loss to Ole Miss. They’ll get a chance to begin a new winning streak in Saturday night’s home game against South Carolina.

The Cats are hosting the Gamecocks having won 7 of 8 in this series between SEC East foes, but Shane Beamer’s second team enters this contest as a legitimate live dog. It’s been a weird game week in the Bluegrass as no one is sure what to expect when these two programs meet on Saturday night.

Now seems like a good time to establish the known heading into this critical conference game.

Kentucky’s QB conundrum

Let’s start with the elephant in the room — we do not know who will start at quarterback for Kentucky on Saturday night. KSR’s Matt Jones has reported that Will Levis is “questionable” for Saturday night’s game. Mark Stoops came back on Thursday and said that “I don’t have anybody out.”

Meanwhile, Levis has been wearing a walking boot since the Ole Miss game ended, and there is speculation that the redshirt senior is dealing with a toe injury. The belief is that the draft prospect was unable to practice this week, and redshirt freshman Kaiya Sheron has worked with the ones preparing for his first career start.

That is all we know at this point. We are unsure if Kentucky will attempt to let Levis warm up on Saturday or if the veteran will be in street clothes on the sideline as offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello rolls with Sheron. Could the Cats do what they did with Stephen Johnson in 2016? Facing Austin Peay the week before the Governor’s Cup, Kentucky dressed QB1 in case of emergency. That emergency arrived when Kentucky fell behind two possessions early, and Johnson was then inserted into the game.

There are a lot of unknowns surrounding the offense heading into a very important football game. Stoops and Scangarello must make the right call and have the right offensive plan or this season could start a tailspin.

Kentucky’s ground game has an excellent opportunity

To put it bluntly, Kentucky’s running game has stunk this year. A high number of sacks have made some of the rushing statistics look worse, but overall this ground has yet to have a good game this season.

The Wildcats have not reached 150 non-sack rushing yards in a game this season and are barely averaging four yards per attempt when the sacks are taken out of the equation. That would still place the offense outside of the top 85 nationally.

However, Kentucky has only had All-SEC tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the lineup for one game. That is where the Wildcats logged their top non-sack yardage total (140) to go along with the best success rate (47%) of the season against a defense that is middle of the pack in run defense metrics.

The Cats now face a run defense that ranks toward the bottom of college football in run defense metrics on Saturday.

South Carolina’s run defense enters Saturday night ranking sub-100 in success rate, EPA, tackles for loss, and total rushing yards. The Gamecocks weren’t good against the run in 2021 and seemingly have gotten worse in 2022. Their biggest kryptonite after losing two starters in the front seven is fitting the run.

Kentucky must win this matchup. It’s the best way for the Cats to have consistent success on offense regardless of who is taking the snaps at quarterback.

Spencer Rattler has been inefficient

Entering the season, Kentucky was going to go as far as Will Levis could take them. The same thing could be said for Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler at South Carolina.

The former five-star recruit entered his redshirt junior season with much fanfare but has produced disappointing results despite tailback MarShawn Lloyd playing at a high level (324 rushing yards, 50.9 success rate, 13 receptions). So far, Rattler is leading the way for a very inefficient passing game.

The talented quarterback is throwing the football 30.2 times per game but has a woeful success rate (39.7%). The Gamecocks have been able to hit on some big plays, but turnovers (13 giveaways) have been an issue, and quite often, this passing game is falling behind the chains depending on running backs and tight ends to turn short completions into big gains.

Facing a Kentucky pass defense that ranks inside the top 25 in EPA, yards per attempt, and completion percentage. The data tells us that the Wildcats could have a big advantage when the Gamecocks have possession of the ball as long as Brad White’s unit can slow down Lloyd.