What's next for Kentucky WBB after losing to Austin Peay?

On Tuesday night, the Kentucky women’s basketball team suffered a loss to the previously 0-2 Austin Peay Governors, 68-63. This loss — just the Wildcats’ third game of the 2023-24 season — is the ultimate gut punch to the program, and the questions and uncertainty are only going to continue to come into play. After going 12-19 last year (2-14 SEC), many were calling for something to change, while some were praising head coach Kyra Elzy after Kentucky made a Cinderella run to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.

Of course, in 2022, the Lady ‘Cats won the SEC Tournament, but fast forward to today, and any momentum that the program built then is completely gone now. Austin Peay was run off the court against Trevecca Nazarene, a Division II school, in their first game of the season by a final score of 75-59. Then, they rolled into Davis-Reid Alumni Gym and took down Kentucky, a Power 5, SEC school, controlling the tempo from start to finish.

Three games is only three games. Anything can happen the rest of the season. But, after falling to Austin Peay, is it time to have a talk? Is it time to have a conversation about the state of Kentucky women’s basketball?

The Rhyne Howard Effect

Coming out of high school Rhyne Howard was a consensus five-star recruit and one of the best overall guards in the 2018 class. Of course, as we all know, Howard was a superstar at UK. The former two-time SEC Player of the Year was someone whom Kentucky could lean on in times of desperation.

When former head coach Matthew Mitchell stepped down from his position, Elzy practically assumed the position on third base. And if it wasn’t third base, then she was at least a pinch runner on second. Elzy was gifted Rhyne Howard, among several former high-profile recruits, as soon as she took over the Kentucky women’s basketball program. Howard would end up being the best player to put on a Kentucky uniform in 40 years, luckily for Elzy.

In Kyra Elzy’s first season (the infamous “COVID year”), she went 18-9 (9-6 SEC) and coached UK to a four-seed as the Wildcats advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament that year. Elzy did this with roughly two weeks of notice after replacing Mitchell before the regular season began. The following year, Kentucky went 19-12 (8-8 SEC), earning a bid in the NCAA Tournament as a six-seed. UK would then be upset by Princeton 69-62 in the first round. However, the Lady ‘Cats still finished as the 15th team in the country in the final AP Poll.

The Post-Rhyne Howard Effect

It seemed like things were going to continue to trend in the right direction for Elzy at Kentucky, but a major change occurred. Howard declared for the 2022 NBA Draft, and she was selected by the Atlanta Dream with the first overall pick. So, Elzy had no choice but to keep steering the ship without her captain. How has Kentucky done since then? Well, they’ve posted a cumulative 14-20 record since Howard’s departure.

Then, another former Matthew Mitchell five-star recruit (who transferred in from Auburn), leading scoring Robyn Benton, wrapped up her collegiate career at Kentucky last season. Second-leading scorer Jada Walker would transfer to Baylor. While Kentucky went 12-19 and won two regular-season SEC games, they were able to ride Benton and Walker’s scoring abilities all the way to the third round of the SEC Tournament. Now, in 2023-24, Kyra Elzy finally has a team that is almost entirely made up of her recruits. Fifth-year guard Emma King is the last remaining piece of the Matthew Mitchell era.

Where do the full-blown Kyra Elzy Kentucky Wildcats stand? Well, 2-1 with a loss to a very mediocre Austin Peay team and two wins that were anything but “gimmes” despite the competition being ETSU and USC Upstate. Going 12-19 last year had many people expecting poor results again this year, and the trajectory would say that those people would be right. Is it time to completely abandon the ship? No. But is it time to be concerned about where Kyra Elzy can take this program? Well, that’s for you to decide.

Season Expectations

Heading into the 2023-24 season, expectations were not high for Elzy’s program. If they could somehow manage a .500 overall record and be even remotely competitive in the SEC, most would consider that a successful season. So, after losing to Austin Peay at Georgetown College, what does the rest of this season look like? Well, here’s what you can mold your expectations from:

Kentucky lacks in talent compared to other SEC schools and by a wide margin. Ajae Petty and Maddie Scherr have All-SEC potential, but the rest of the team has not shown anything close so far. As Kyra Elzy mentioned in her postgame press conference following the loss to Austin Peay, Scherr is currently “day-to-day” with an ankle injury. That’s going to be a killer as Kentucky hits the road at FGCU and then plays three games in three days against the two teams (Colorado and NC State) who just defeated the top two ranked schools in the country (LSU and UConn).

Then, Kentucky will take on a ranked Louisville team on the road before the conference season is underway. Plus, as we saw against Austin Peay, mid-major non-conference games aren’t certain wins. Kentucky has several of those left as well. Is a successful season possible? Sure. But right now, it seems very unlikely, and the seat is certainly getting warmer for Kyra Elzy.