When and Where Do Kentucky's Points Come From?
[caption id="attachment_151155" align="alignnone" width="600"]
via USATSI[/caption]
It's no secret that Kentucky has struggled with transition defense this season. Not only was it one of the key factors that led Michigan State and others to victory over the Cats, but it also kept Missouri in a contest where Kentucky was having one of their best offensive performances to date. While this defensive struggle has hindered the Cats for a majority of the season, against Mississippi, Kentucky was able to limit the Rebels to only five transition points - a total that contributed heavily to the final 16-point margin of victory. While allowing only five points in transition is excellent for a team who has struggled with that area all season, this level of play is likely unsustainable as it is an unbelievably low total for any game. Transition defense certainly won't remain at a five-point level for the remainder of the season, but for Kentucky to remain a championship contender, the per game averages must remain low.
At this point I sound like a broken record, but transition defense this season - particularly at the rim - has been poor. As I pointed out last week, Kentucky ranks 20th or below in numerous transition defense categories among the AP Top-25. However, there are areas where Kentucky excels defensively, and I thought that it'd be interesting to point out exactly where those areas were. In transition, the Cats are holding opponents to a stifling 32.7% on two-point jumpers and an impressive 29.5% from three. However, opponents are connecting 68% of the time when they shoot at the rim in transition - the biggest detriment to Kentucky's defense.
When the Cats recover on defense and force opponents into their regular halfcourt sets, the percentages at the rim drop significantly from 68% to 51%. By simply getting back in transition and forcing opponents to play an entire possession, their efficiency at the rim drops. When it comes to two and three-point jumpers, strangely, the percentages don't change much from transition to non-transition. The below chart contains the remainder of the data. Keep in mind that only 20% of opponent shots have come in transition, so that explains the low "points allowed" totals.
[caption id="attachment_151164" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via Hoop-Math.com[/caption]
Offensively, we're all well aware of where Kentucky's strengths are - at the rim. Of course when you have the interior presence known as Julius Randle, things tend to come easy at the rim. However, there is something strange about Kentucky's profile at the rim - we're shooting a higher percentage at the rim during standard possessions rather than transition possessions. This is interesting as most teams experience the exact opposite. The biggest reason for this drop, in my mind, would be Andrew Harrison's weakness at the rim in transition. On the season, he has taken 24 shots at the rim in transition, connecting only 42% of the time. This is, by far, the lowest percentage of any player on the team. Aaron Harrison and James Young - two players who have shot a similar volume at the rim in transition - are connecting on 71% and 64% respectively in that category. The remainder of Kentucky's offensive percentages can be found below. Nearly 80% of Kentucky's shots have come in non-transition possessions. This is why the "points scored" totals are much higher in the non-transition categories.
[caption id="attachment_151165" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via Hoop-Math.com[/caption]
Defensively, it's pretty easy to see that we need to slow our opponents down and force them to play a halfcourt game. By doing this we can utilize our length more effectively and ensure that Willie Cauley-Stein will be patrolling the rim more often. Offensively, I think that we're fine, but there are some issues like Andrew Harrison's finishing ability at the rim in transition that can be corrected. We've seen a ton of games played and a lot of mistakes this season, but overall, I believe that we're starting to see them right the ship. With a bit more polish in a few areas, this team does possess the capability of a tournament run.
via USATSI[/caption]
It's no secret that Kentucky has struggled with transition defense this season. Not only was it one of the key factors that led Michigan State and others to victory over the Cats, but it also kept Missouri in a contest where Kentucky was having one of their best offensive performances to date. While this defensive struggle has hindered the Cats for a majority of the season, against Mississippi, Kentucky was able to limit the Rebels to only five transition points - a total that contributed heavily to the final 16-point margin of victory. While allowing only five points in transition is excellent for a team who has struggled with that area all season, this level of play is likely unsustainable as it is an unbelievably low total for any game. Transition defense certainly won't remain at a five-point level for the remainder of the season, but for Kentucky to remain a championship contender, the per game averages must remain low.
At this point I sound like a broken record, but transition defense this season - particularly at the rim - has been poor. As I pointed out last week, Kentucky ranks 20th or below in numerous transition defense categories among the AP Top-25. However, there are areas where Kentucky excels defensively, and I thought that it'd be interesting to point out exactly where those areas were. In transition, the Cats are holding opponents to a stifling 32.7% on two-point jumpers and an impressive 29.5% from three. However, opponents are connecting 68% of the time when they shoot at the rim in transition - the biggest detriment to Kentucky's defense.
When the Cats recover on defense and force opponents into their regular halfcourt sets, the percentages at the rim drop significantly from 68% to 51%. By simply getting back in transition and forcing opponents to play an entire possession, their efficiency at the rim drops. When it comes to two and three-point jumpers, strangely, the percentages don't change much from transition to non-transition. The below chart contains the remainder of the data. Keep in mind that only 20% of opponent shots have come in transition, so that explains the low "points allowed" totals.
[caption id="attachment_151164" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via Hoop-Math.com[/caption]
Offensively, we're all well aware of where Kentucky's strengths are - at the rim. Of course when you have the interior presence known as Julius Randle, things tend to come easy at the rim. However, there is something strange about Kentucky's profile at the rim - we're shooting a higher percentage at the rim during standard possessions rather than transition possessions. This is interesting as most teams experience the exact opposite. The biggest reason for this drop, in my mind, would be Andrew Harrison's weakness at the rim in transition. On the season, he has taken 24 shots at the rim in transition, connecting only 42% of the time. This is, by far, the lowest percentage of any player on the team. Aaron Harrison and James Young - two players who have shot a similar volume at the rim in transition - are connecting on 71% and 64% respectively in that category. The remainder of Kentucky's offensive percentages can be found below. Nearly 80% of Kentucky's shots have come in non-transition possessions. This is why the "points scored" totals are much higher in the non-transition categories.
[caption id="attachment_151165" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via Hoop-Math.com[/caption]
Defensively, it's pretty easy to see that we need to slow our opponents down and force them to play a halfcourt game. By doing this we can utilize our length more effectively and ensure that Willie Cauley-Stein will be patrolling the rim more often. Offensively, I think that we're fine, but there are some issues like Andrew Harrison's finishing ability at the rim in transition that can be corrected. We've seen a ton of games played and a lot of mistakes this season, but overall, I believe that we're starting to see them right the ship. With a bit more polish in a few areas, this team does possess the capability of a tournament run.
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