When Can Mark Stoops and Kentucky Have a Strong 2nd Half of the Season?

Once Mark Stoops got the Kentucky football program on solid footing, a similar theme has emerged throughout most, if not all, of the seasons since 2017. Kentucky comes out of the gates strong, or fairly strong, and then falters late in the season. Of course, some might argue that’s because most of the non-conference games occur in the opening half of the year. But that actually is not accurate at all. In fact, since 2017, Kentucky has played 15 games against non-conference opponents in the first half of their schedule and nine games against non-conference opponents in the back half. Not exactly a wide margin.

Just take a look at the results in the first 6 games (or 5 games in 2020) since the 2017 season:

1ST HALF OF SEASON

2017: 5-1 (2-1 SEC)
2018: 5-1 (3-1 SEC)
2019: 3-3 (1-3 SEC)
2020: 2-3 (2-3 SEC)
2021: 6-0 (4-0 SEC)
2022: 4-2 (1-2 SEC)
2023: 5-1 (2-1 SEC)
COMBINED: 30-11 (15-11 SEC)

A very solid group of results. Entered the 2nd half of the year with zero or one losses four out of seven times. Had a winning SEC record in 4 out of 7 seasons. Stoops has had teams ranked in the Top 25 in 4 out of 7 seasons. All very respectable seasons so far (sans 2020).

Then take a look at the 2nd half of the season:

2ND HALF OF SEASON

2017: 2-4 (2-3 SEC)
2018: 4-2 (2-2 SEC)
2019: 4-2 (2-2 SEC)
2020: 2-3 (2-3 SEC)
2021: 3-3 (1-3 SEC)
2022: 3-3 (2-3 SEC)
2023: 2-4 (1-4 SEC)
COMBINED: 20-21 (12-20 SEC)

Only two out of seven seasons are winning records. Not a single winning SEC record in the bunch. And keep in mind that Kentucky got to play Louisville six times in this group of games, winning five of those. Stoops’ teams have time in and time out worn down, for one reason or another, in the back end of the season. Yes, Tennessee and Georgia have typically landed in the back half. But at some point, if we are to call ourselves a legit football program, that shouldn’t matter. Do we think the years the Dawgs and Vols have whipped us in October we would have beaten them in September? I don’t think so.

So why do we struggle so much more in October and November? I honestly don’t have an answer. It can’t be injuries. All teams have injuries. It’s not fatigue. All SEC teams play brutal schedules. It’s not depth. We’ve been told time and again Mark Stoops has created depth in this program. So that’s not the reason.

HOW DOES STOOPS CHANGE IT?

I think it comes down to this. At some point, Kentucky has to be able to do a couple of things:

1. Pull an upset. They are favored in most games at the beginning of the year and underdogs later. Gonna have to pull some upsets.
2. Gotta adjust. Maybe teams are trying to figure out the Cats at the beginning of the year but it has often seemed we’ve been out-schemed later in the year. It has often felt like we try and do whatever we want to do and not adjust when needed. Teams have been figuring us out.
3. Gotta hang on to the rivalry. Imagine if Louisville wasn’t a dumpster fire most of this time. Now that the Cards are competitive again, it becomes even more imperative that Kentucky keeps a stranglehold on that rivalry.

The back half of the schedule this year: at Florida, Auburn, at Tennessee, Murray State, at Texas, and Louisville.