When Kentucky fails to run the ball, success becomes rare

Even with Liam Coen’s new pro-style offense, Kentucky lives and dies through the run game. That’s been the staple of Mark Stoops’ teams since his arrival in Lexington and nothing has changed in 2021.

Well, except for Saturday night against Mississippi State, when UK fell 31-17. Kentucky ran the ball for just 66 total yards, the second outing in a row that UK has failed to register at least 100 rushing yards. Up until Kentucky’s first loss of the season against Georgia a few weeks ago, the ‘Cats were averaging over 214 yards per game and hit triple-digits in all of them. Since then? UK has combined for just 117 yards in losses to UGA and MSU.

To the surprise of no one, when Kentucky fails to enforce the run game, so do the offense’s opportunities for success.

“We didn’t match the intensity, I felt like we got pushed around. We were not able to run the ball,” Stoop said after the game. “They ran the ball, they made competitive plays, outcoached us, and outplayed us in every area. Overall, a deflating defeat. They kicked our butts.”

Chris Rodriguez Jr., who is currently second in the SEC in overall rushing yards with 809, finished with just 34 yards on eight carries against Mississippi State. The junior tailback was even worse against Georgia, struggling for a mere seven rushing yards.

But it hasn’t been his inability to find holes; Rodriguez is simply not confident in his ball security. The preseason All-SEC back lost an untimely fumble against MSU and is now up to five official fumbles on the year. It wasn’t his first fumble of the night, either.

“He was dealing with something this week, but no excuses,” Stoops said of Rodriguez. “I think with the fumble, it was a combination of things on that play. We got blown off a tackle, pressure in the backfield, handoff looked a little high, but not very good.”

Rodriguez didn’t even receive the opening reps on Saturday; Kavosiey Smoke took over as the team’s starter, but he didn’t look any better. Smoke recorded 19 yards on eight attempts.

But before we jump into the danger zone, let’s consider this; Georgia and Mississippi State both rank among the top 10 in the country in terms of defending the run. UGA gives up an insanely low 63.4 rushing yards per game while MSU allows just 92.7. Those two teams are, without a doubt, the two toughest challenges Kentucky’s rushing attacking have and will face all season long.

A bounceback performance against Tennessee will be necessary if Kentucky wants to prevent the narrative of this team from being flipped upside down. That means UK will need a confident Rodriguez and more production from Smoke. It also means Will Levis must play better to help keep defenses honest.

Since Stoops took over as Kentucky’s head coach ahead of the 2013 season, the ‘Cats are just 5-20 when finishing with 100 rushing yards or fewer. Conversely, Kentucky is 50-33 when breaking the 100-yard threshold.

If Kentucky can’t establish a run game, the winning probability takes a significant nosedive.