Where Cason Wallace and Jacob Toppin project in the NBA Draft

While it’s still early in the offseason, roster turnover for Kentucky men’s basketball is in full swing. Head coach John Calipari is preparing for yet another rebuild year in Lexington, something he’s become well-accustomed to during his time in Lexington. The No. 1 recruiting class in the country is just a few months away from arriving on campus as Calipari looks to get back to his ways of utilizing five-star freshmen. But with five rookies coming in and so many veterans on the roster from this past season, it was expected that a handful of pieces would move on from the program.

So far, Sahvir Wheeler has announced his intentions to transfer while two other Wildcats, Cason Wallace and Jacob Toppin, declared for the NBA Draft. Kentucky could very well see more of its own enter the draft — Chris Livingston and Oscar Tshiebwe the primary suspects — but we’re going to focus on Wallace and Toppin for now, who will receive plenty of attention (for different reasons) from NBA front offices between now and the draft on June 22 in Brooklyn, NY.

Wallace is the easy one to project, considering he’s been a consensus first-round pick since before he ever stepped foot in Lexington. Meanwhile, Toppin is much tougher to pin down. The 22-year-old started his senior season with dreams of making it to the league but struggled early on before ramping up his production down the stretch. Before the 2022-23 season even began, Wallace and Toppin were expected to leave at year’s end. They took different paths to get there but ultimately fulfilled that goal.

Cason Wallace’s draft outlook

Wallace is a clear-cut first-round pick. He’s essentially guaranteed to go among the top 20 picks in the draft, barring something unforeseen that happens during the pre-draft process — his many injuries from last season will surely be a talking point and one that NBA teams look to flesh out fully. Even the lowest projections of Wallace have him landing just outside of the lottery, which includes the top 14 picks. Let’s roll through some mock draft projections from various outlets to see what the media is thinking of Wallace’s future.

ESPN: No. 13, Los Angeles Lakers
The Athletic: No. 10, Toronto Raptors
The Ringer: No. 13, New York Knicks
Bleacher Report: No. 8, Washington Wizards
CBS Sports: No. 9, Utah Jazz (Kyle Boone); No. 18, Atlanta Hawks (Gary Parrish)
Tankathon: No. 14, Utah Jazz
NBC Sports: No. 11, Orlando Magic
NBADraft.net: No. 18, Golden State Warriors
USA Today: No. 8, Washington Wizards

Average projection: 12.2

The highest any of these mocks have Wallace going is No. 8 while the lowest is No. 18, giving him an average pick range of No. 12 — just inside the lottery. It would be more shocking than not to see him fall outside of the top 14 picks. During his one season at UK, Wallace showcased he can operate in both backcourt spots while playing high-level defense across several positions. His ceiling is somewhere in the mold of Jrue Holiday from the Milwaukee Bucks — a big point guard who can score from multiple levels and stick to the opposing ball handlers. Holiday is a bit more aggressive as an on-ball defender than Wallace, but the size and skillsets match up quite well.

Wallace feels like a safe pick for any team in the back end of the lottery. He’ll be fighting against other top-tier freshmen such as Cam Whitmore (Villanova), Gradey Dick (Kansas), Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr. (Arkansas), Jalen Hood-Schifino (Indiana), and Jarace Walker (Houston) for a spot in that range. If you’re an NBA franchise, you likely won’t go wrong with any of those options. Wallace might have a lower ceiling than most of them, but his floor is certainly one of the highest. It might simply come down to fit and if the picking team needs a lead guard.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wallace sneak right into the top 10, but I would be surprised to see him fall in the late teens outside of the lottery.

Cason Wallace, potentially the best defender in this draft, is intriguing to NBA teams with his combination of toughness, feel for the game, shooting, unselfishness and defensive instincts, giving him a high floor as a prospect. https://t.co/J6LTiVpze8 pic.twitter.com/ieAqkRE0EC

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 1, 2023

Jacob Toppin’s draft outlook

Toppin is going to be much more difficult to project, but he will have plenty of opportunities to hear his name called on draft night. Right now, his name is nowhere to be found in the mock drafts mentioned with Wallace. Last summer, Toppin was drawing interest from mocks as a potential second-round pick, but as his season got off to a rough start, that attention quickly dissipated. His final year at Kentucky can essentially be split into two different stretches: November-December, and then the rest of the season.

During his first 12 games of the season, Toppin averaged 9.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 26 minutes per outing for the ‘Cats while shooting under 40 percent from the floor. In his 21 games after that? Those numbers skyrocketed to 14.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in 35 minutes per game while shooting a hair under 50 percent overall and 39.5 percent from distance. He had a stretch of 11 consecutive games with at least 10 points. After pulling himself out of dark mental space, Toppin went on a run that NBA scouts will likely take more than a few looks at. His mid-range jumper was falling while his three-pointer grew into a legitimate threat. His rebounding saw a considerable increase in effort and he was more comfortable attacking the rim. Toppin even developed some playmaking abilities that went under the radar.

The Toppin from the fall wasn’t even half as good as the player that we saw in the spring. What he did in the last few months was more than enough to justify a decision to head for the NBA, even if he’s still not projected in the latest mocks. But that’s what the pre-draft process is for. If he can shine in that environment — and there’s no reason to believe he won’t — there will be a team eager to take a flier in the second round on someone with the athleticism and genes that he possesses. There will certainly be questions surrounding his attitude and whether or not his run near the end of the season will translate to the next level, but a 6-foot-9 pogo stick with an improving offense game and an older brother already in the league is going to draw plenty of eyes.