Who Wins, 2012 Kentucky or 2025 Duke? We Have Odds

The NCAA Tournament is more than a week away, but it hasn’t cooled the takes. The Duke basketball team that strolled through ACC play with only one loss is being compared to other all-time great teams, even your University of Kentucky Wildcats.

The folks at DraftKings were willing to chew on this food for thought. If 2012 Kentucky and 2025 Duke met on a neutral court, what would the spread be? DraftKings has Anthony Davis‘ National Championship team as a 2.5-point underdog to Cooper Flagg‘s squad.

It’s ridiculous for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, Kentucky only had one loss to this point in its season before the No. 1 overall seed marched its way through the NCAA Tournament. They lost to Indiana at the buzzer, then went undefeated in SEC play. Duke has lost three times, falling to Kentucky in Kansas, then losing at Clemson. Those three losses are why they will probably not be the No. 1 overall seed this Sunday.

Comparing a team that hasn’t played a postseason game to a National Champion is foolish. It’d be a real shame if this sort of thought jinxed the Devils into losing before they made it to San Antonio.

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Upon Further Review, 2012 Kentucky and 2025 Duke are Similar

It starts at the top. Kentucky had a generational talent, no-brainer first overall pick with Anthony Davis. Cooper Flagg is in similar territory. Even though Johni Broome will edge out Flagg for National Player of the Year, the Duke forward is exceptional in so many ways and is one of the best freshmen since AD was in Kentucky Blue.

There’s one other big similarity between these two teams: they played in awful, awful conferences. Kentucky was one of three ranked teams at the top of the SEC, alongside Florida and Vanderbilt. Alabama barely squeaked into the NCAA Tournament. The ACC has been historically bad, with Duke, Clemson, and Louisville spending a significant amount of time in the Top 25, but they may not have a fourth team slide into the action on Selection Sunday.

When push comes to shove, we can always lean on the analytics. Duke’s offensive efficiency gives them a slight nod over 2012 Kentucky. The KenPom defensive efficiency numbers are a push, but Duke has an offensive efficiency of 129.1, while the 2012 Cats are at 122.2.

We’ll see if Duke can continue completely overwhelming opponents once they start playing real teams in the NCAA Tournament. This exercise has made it abundantly clear: it’s National Championship or bust for Duke. No pressure.