Why Justin Edwards is the key to a Kentucky upset over Tennessee

Once upon a time, Tennessee fans thought Justin Edwards would be a Volunteer. Now he could be the key to giving out Voluntears Saturday in Knoxville. Let me explain how one decision altered the trajectory of the season for Tennessee, and how he can play a significant role in ensuring it ends on a sour note.

Sliding Doors Moment

It was July 25, 2022, when John Calipari completed the recruiting coup. Longtime Tennessee-lean Justin Edwards, a consensus five-star forward, committed to Kentucky. Cal took the cornerstone of his buddy Rick Barnes’ recruiting class, but it may have been the greatest favor he’s ever done for his friend.

If Justin Edwards is on the Tennessee roster, does Dalton Knecht make the move from Northern Colorado? If you recall, Tennessee had to run off Chris Ledlum, one of the top-ranked shooters in the portal, to make way for Knecht. The 6-foot-6 wing may not have been too keen on sharing a spot with a top-flight freshman. Tennessee fans can thank Justin Edwards for giving them the SEC Player of the Year.

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Tennessee Provided a Spark for Edwards

Most Kentucky fans would rather forget the first game against Tennessee. The Vols led for 39 minutes and 45 seconds. It was a putrid performance, albeit one that could have changed the course of the season.

Justin Edwards has remained in the starting lineup throughout the year, but he’s looked like a completely different player since the game against the Vols. He scored seven points in 18 minutes (thanks to four personal fouls), knocked down a three-pointer, and grabbed four boards. Edwards appeared engaged and confident, ready to turn a corner. He did just that.

First 20 games: 7.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 22 MPG | 44.2 FG% / 28.6 3FG% / 70.8 FT%
Last 9 games: 11.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 21 MPG | 61.8 FG% / 54.5 3FG% / 83.3 FT%

Edwards has scored in double figures five times in the last nine games. Kentucky is 11-1 when he scores in double figures, which brings me to my last point.

Kentucky Needs Edwards to D Up against Tennessee

The BBN is keenly aware of Kentucky’s defensive deficiencies. It was plain as day in the first matchup with Tennessee, and yet they held Knecht to 16 points on only one made three. The Vols did most of their damage inside.

Jonas Aidoo had 11 points and 11 blocks, while Josiah-Jordan James knocked down four threes in a 26-point performance. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s bigs combined for four points and 12 rebounds with Big Z on the sideline.

To beat Tennessee, the Kentucky offense needs to put up a big number. The nuclear lineup — Z, Edwards, Reeves, Rob, Reed — must play a factor. That can only work if Edwards is able to hold his own against JJJ. James is not a prolific scorer by any stretch of the imagination. His ability to defend the ball is his greatest asset to the team. If Edwards can continue this upward trajectory and win the duel with Josiah-Jordan James, Kentucky has enough ammo elsewhere to bring a win back to Lexington.

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