Why Kentucky MBB could pivot to NDSU transfer Grant Nelson

After missing out on the Hunter Dickinson sweepstakes, Kentucky can now move on to the next portal target. The Michigan All-American center announced his transfer to Kansas on Thursday morning, choosing the Jayhawks over UK, Villanova, and Maryland. Shortly after, Kentucky also received news that veteran forward Lance Ware will put his name into the portal. Meanwhile, Oscar Tshiebwe is still contemplating a potential return to Lexington or embarking on his professional career.

In just one morning, the Wildcats’ frontcourt for the 2023-24 season became a serious question mark. Rising sophomore Ugonna Onyenso and incoming five-star freshman Aaron Bradshaw are still in the fold, but Daimion Collins is likely gone too. More bodies will be necessary. North Dakota State transfer Grant Nelson could be part of the answer.

According to 24/7 High School Hoops, the 6-foot-11 power forward has already heard from the Wildcats after putting his name into the portal earlier this week. The rising senior big man was a First-Team All-Summit League performer in 2022-23, averaging 17.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.7 blocks per outing on 52.1 percent overall shooting for the Bison.

Nelson, who is also testing the NBA Draft waters, will have at least two years of college eligibility left due to the extra year granted from the COVID-19 pandemic. Could he spend that time at Kentucky? Or a better question might be, would he be a good fit with what head coach John Calipari is looking for? Let’s examine the possibility of it all.

But before we dive too deep into what Nelson could bring to the table in Lexington, let’s first address the state of the roster.

Considering the Dickinson news, Tshiebwe could now certainly make a return to Kentucky for a third season. Having the two-time All-American back would immediately bolster the Wildcats’ frontcourt, no matter what one might think of his pairing with Bradshaw and/or Onyenso, which will likely come with some bumps. There’s always the chance that Chris Livingston comes back for year two, as well. Calipari also tweeted after Ware’s transfer announcement that he would welcome the fan-favorite back with open arms. If one or two of that trio decides to return for another year in Lexington, the depth issue becomes less of a problem.

But even if that does wind up happening (or worse, none come back), Kentucky could use a boost in talent down low. Nelson, who is ranked as the No. 6 available transfer portal prospect by On3, has the skill to help fill in the gaps.

Here’s what we know about Nelson on the surface. He has tremendous size at 6-foot-11, 235 pounds, which he uses to finish at the rim with high efficiency and to protect the paint. The North Dakota native shot 65 percent at the rim in ’22-23 after taking 53 percent of his overall shots from that area. On the other end, his 5.5 block percentage was among one of the higher marks in the entire country. He’s a versatile shot blocker who can contest looks from all over the court. Nelson is also an effective defensive rebounder and knows how to draw fouls. He can back down his defender on the block and has flexed some playmaking prowess.

But don’t let his size fool you. Nelson is a skilled ball handler who can put the rock on the hardwood to attack the paint. He moves like a guard on the perimeter and can bring plenty of athleticism when needed. There aren’t many prospects out there with the size of Nelson that can move like him.

It’s safe to say Grant Nelson will be a hot commodity in the transfer portal.

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— Joe Tipton (@TiptonEdits) May 2, 2023

The biggest knock on Nelson’s game is his lack of an outside shot. Across three seasons at NDSU, he went just 69-225 (30.7 percent) from beyond the arc. During his high usage junior season in ’22-23, that number dipped all the way down to 26.9 percent on 3.1 attempts per outing. A leap in production in that area could have him on the cusp of potential NBA lottery pick status for next year’s draft.

Suiting up for North Dakota State, Nelson didn’t always play against high-caliber competition. The Bison faced just two Power 5 opponents last season, which were the program’s first two games of the season. Both came on the road, first to Arkansas then to Kansas. In those outings, Nelson found moderate success.

Between the two, he was much better against Arkansas, posting 17 points, six rebounds, one block, and four turnovers in a 76-58 loss. Nelson played just 21 minutes as he dealt with foul trouble, so reaching 17 points on 5-9 shooting (6-8 from the free throw line) is notable. But he would struggle a few days later against Kansas, recording 11 points, nine rebounds, two blocks, and five turnovers in 25 minutes of action. Nelson shot just 3-10 from the floor (including 4-6 FT) in that 82-59 loss.

The rest of North Dakota State’s competition from this past season was subpar at best. The Bison went just 16-17 on the year with an 11-7 mark in the Summit League. NDSU began the season with eight straight losses, falling to the likes of Pacific, Indiana State, Northern Colorado, Jacksonville State, and Montana. The team would rally late, winning seven out of eight games down the stretch before losing in the Summit League Tournament championship game to Oral Roberts, but it was hardly a successful overall run.

The next factor to consider is his potential fit if he were to ultimately transfer to Kentucky. A lot of that would depend on what happens with Tshiebwe, which might not be something we learn about for some time. Nelson is skilled enough with the ball in his hands that he can hang around the perimeter and attack closeout defenders to help stretch the floor. He’d also serve as a viable lob threat, but is there enough outside shooting to open up driving lanes for the many five-star freshmen that will need the ball in their hands more often than not? Can a frontcourt pairing of Nelson and Tshiebwe/Bradshaw find enough space for said guards? Will Nelson’s ability to defend multiple positions look a step short against better players?

Those are the questions Calipari and his staff will look to answer as they evaluate their next offseason move. But regardless, Nelson is drawing plenty of interest for a reason.