Alabama vs. LSU Picks: On3's "Andy & Ari" Show

No. 14 LSU hosts No. 11 Alabama on Saturday night in Death Valley for an SEC matchup that – with four regular season games remaining – is likely an elimination bout relative to a spot in the College Football Playoffs.

With the expanded playoffs, 12 teams will play for a National Championship this season, and most analysts agree that a two-loss SEC team would likely punch a ticket to get in.

LSU enters the game at 6-2 overall and 3-1 in SEC play, while Alabama heads to Baton Rouge at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play. Alabama’s conference losses came at Vanderbilt and Tennessee, while LSU’s lone SEC loss came one game ago when the Tigers let the lead disappear in a second-half collapse in College Station against Texas A&M.

According to FanDuel, Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite over LSU ahead of Saturday’s matchup.

This will be Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer‘s first trip to Death Valley, and the first time back for Alabama since LSU head coach Brian Kelly’s first season saw the Tigers knock off the Tide with a two-point conversion in overtime.

On Monday’s episode of On3’s “Andy & Ari” Show with Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman, they took a deeper dive into the SEC matchup, the view of both programs, their picks and more.

Alabama at LSU (+2.5) Total: 57.5

Andy: These are not the best two teams in the SEC, and winning this game doesn’t guarantee the winner will win out and make the College Football Playoff. But the loser probably is out, barring mass chaos everywhere else. LSU struggled mightily against a mobile QB when Texas A&M switched to Marcel Reed in the Tigers’ last game. But LSU also dominated mobile Taylen Green a week earlier against Arkansas. Jalen Milroe is a better version of Reed and Green, so can LSU’s defense contain him?
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER

Ari: If you wanted regular-season Playoff games, this is it. Speaking of not being able to get Texas A&M games out of my head, I can’t shake the feeling of how bad LSU looked in the second half against the Aggies. Alabama has a better offense, and if it is playing at a high level, the Crimson Tide are still tough to beat. Yes, the game is in Tiger Stadium, but Alabama plays its way back into the Playoff picture on Saturday.
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER 

Alabama picked to cover, but neither count LSU out in a wild 2024 season

While both Staples and Wasserman picked Alabama to cover the 2.5-point spread, both expressed concerns for each program that could swing the game either way.

“I don’t have a lot of confidence in this pick,” Staples said. “It’s a cover (pick) and 2.5-point spread. I am just guessing here. I will be perfectly honest with you. I am just guessing, because I do not know what these teams are. The LSU team that lost to Texas A&M will lose to Alabama, but the Alabama team we saw at Tennessee probably won’t win at night at Tiger Stadium.

“I don’t feel like this is a case of I don’t know which team is going to show up. I actually don’t know what Alabama and LSU are. I think that’s my biggest problem here.”

Added Wasserman: “I picked Alabama in my (CFP Bracket), and I don’t feel comfortable with that. I am (making a pick) based off the spread of the game … But, LSU really disappointed me in the (Texas A&M) game. I can’t get the way they played in the second half of that game out of my head. That said, Alabama very much disappointed me in the Tennessee game. I don’t know that with either of these teams, the first thing I think of is ‘awesome’ when I think about them. I think about a team that has talent, that has the ability of everything clicks to play high level football against good opponents, but I also don’t feel confident that either of them will do it.

“Alabama went on the road to Tennessee and played a terrible game. Why is this any different? This will be another environment like that, and this one is going to be at night. The one at Tennessee wasn’t even at night. But Brian Kelly pounds his fists against the table and says we have games we are going to put away and they just can’t put them away, and that scares the (expletive) out of me.”

For Staples, LSU’s ability to contain Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe – something Kelly touched on during Monday’s press conference – will be key.

“Here is the other thing. Jalen Milroe is a hell of a lot better version of (TAMU QB) Marcel Reed,” he said. “But, but … a week earlier, when LSU knew they were playing (Arkansas QB) Taylen Green, who is a really good mobile quarterback with a good arm, they shut him down.”

When posed the question as to whether LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was better at this stage than Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who already knocked off the Tide as Tennessee’s quarterback, both Staples and Wasserman agreed the answer was a yes in favor of the starter in Baton Rouge.

But, Staples wondered if Nussmeier and the passing attack would be enough for an LSU offense that has struggled to run the football this season, failing to find the balance that would take the Tigers to another level on offense.

“Can LSU run on Bama, I think, is a question,” Staples said.