All the marbles: Setting the stage for LSU vs. Florida Game 3

It’s a winner-take-all Game 3 on Monday at 6 p.m. between LSU and Florida on ESPN . The College World Series comes down to one game at Charles Schwab Park as the Tigers and Gators split the first two games in dramatically different ways. LSU squeaked out a 4-3 win in game one in 11 innings, while Florida erupted for a 24-4 win on Sunday afternoon to reset the series.

The Tigers entered this series having played two more games than the Gators, and as a result have had to piece together the pitching, while Florida has had its usual three-man starting rotation set.

The similarities between the two teams runs deep with top tier talent, SEC roots, and quality experience that has been incredibly resilient throughout the postseason.

With one game left in the season, here’s what you need to know going into tonight.

Florida’s starter: Jac Caglianone

With a 7-3 record in 17 starts, Caglianone has consistently been in the Gators’ starting rotation this season, entering tonight’s game with 73.1 innings pitched and just a .186 batting average allowed.

The 6-foot-5 lefty sophomore who projects as the potential No. 1 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft has a 3.68 ERA, a .297 slugging percentage, and a 1.38 WHIP. Perhaps his most impressive stat, though, is the 85.1 Left on Base percentage, the best rate in the SEC at leaving runners stranded. 

His stuff is elite when it’s under control.

Jac Caglianone, Wicked 97mph Fastball. 🤢

"That is coming straight to a PitchingNinja video. That was disgusting." pic.twitter.com/1Pr72E7oAf

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2023

Caglianone’s weakness right now is his control, as evident with a 15.7 walk percentage, a number three times greater than Paul Skenes and Rhett Lowder from Wake Forest. His strikeout percentage is a modest 25.7 percent. Ty Floyd ended the year with a 31 strikeout percentage.

In conference this year, Caglianone had a 5.05 ERA in ten starts, with a 3-2 record and 41 total innings pitched. In those ten appearances, he had 45 strikeouts to 36 walks.

Caglianone is a very good pitcher, but could you make the case he’s the weakest starting pitcher LSU has faced in the College World Series? Here’s the list: Andrew Lindsey and Drew Beam from Tennessee, Seth Keener, Rhett Lowder, and Josh Hartle from Wake Forest, and then Brandon Sproat and Hurston Waldrep from Florida. It’s going to be a challenge, but nothing LSU hasn’t seen already.

LSU’s pitching options

The conversation throughout the day in Baton Rouge has been centered around finding a way to pitch Paul Skenes.

On Thursday night, Skenes pitched 120 pitches to defeat Wake Forest to get LSU to this point. He only had a four day rest before that start. Could he return to the mound for his third start in nine days?

Beyond Skenes, Thatcher Hurd is the name most people have circled as being a lock to step in and either start or come in as the first reliever for Jay Johnson. Hurd has been awesome for LSU this postseason and will certainly get his chance to quiet this Florida lineup.

Riley Cooper has also been excellent this postseason, but did not attend Sunday’s game, facing a “nasty stomach bug” per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Can the reliable lefty step in and be himself for 1-2 innings for LSU just one day removed from feeling sick?

Past Cooper, the Tigers will likely look at Griffin Herring as their final hope. With Nate Ackenhausen and Gavin Guidry likely spent from pitching on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how Johnson manages the bull pen if it’s a tight game late.

Coming up clutch

The Tigers’ pitching staff has been excellent this postseason, while the bats have been unable to capitalize in key spots. Through seven CWS games, LSU has left 58 runners on base, including tying a CWS Finals record of 17 left on base in Game 1 against Florida.

Johnson talked about the issue earlier this year, but mostly dismissed it as a product of “when you get on base as much as we do, you’re going to leave more runners on base.”

That is true. The Tigers have a .429 on base percentage, the highest number of any team in the CWS, and highest in the SEC by a good margin. Pair that with one of the highest home run averages and you’re looking at the best offense in the country – but the lineup has felt flimsy for far too many stretches recently.

If not for Tommy White and Cade Beloso game-winning home runs the offensive struggles could have ended the season. Johnson has talked about the quality of pitchers his team has faced this postseason, and it’s caused more stress than fans are used to at the plate.

“It’s got to be one of the best pitching brackets in College World Series history,” Johnson said. “We just don’t get discouraged.”

LSU has faced elite pitching. It will once again face a high-level arm tonight. With everything on the line, the Tigers will need to finally break through.