Breaking down Bracketology: Where will LSU finish?

LSU closed out a strong week with three wins in seven days, beating Texas A&M, Auburn, and Tennessee by a combined 43 points, improving to 11-3 in SEC play and 24-4 overall. As a result, the Tigers moved up to No. 9 in the latest AP Poll and moved up to a three-seed in ESPN’s Bracketology projections with less than three weeks before the brackets are announced.

LSU has been a 3-seed in the last two tournaments with a second-round loss in 2022 followed by a national championship run in 2023. This year, LSU continues to fight for improved seeding as the field appears to be as open at the top as it ever has been. 

Here, we’re looking at the potential outcomes for the remainder of the regular season and SEC Tournament. LSU can still viable finish in any of the 1-4 spots depending on how it closes the year. Let’s get into it.

Path to a two-seed

Currently at No. 9 in the AP Poll, there has to be optimism that if LSU wins its final two regular season games against Georgia and Missouri and wins two games (quarterfinals and semifinals), the Tigers would get a favorable two seed. Assuming the loss in the title game comes to South Carolina, I could see LSU even pushing for a one seed if all of the dominoes fall their way.

Unfortunately, the SEC does not have another ranked team or another team in the top 25 in the NET outside of South Carolina and LSU, so wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss on the road don’t carry as much weight as they likely should. Still, this result should lock up a two seed.

Staying as a three-seed

If LSU loses at any point before the SEC title game, I think it will lock the Tigers into a three seed. Whether that is Georgia, Missouri, or in the quarterfinals or semifinals of the SEC Tournament, LSU will add another shaky loss to its resume and at best stay a three.

If this happens, the seeding is largely out of their control, depending on if teams in their same seeding range add marquee wins or if they are upset in the conference tournament. 

Dropping to a four-seed

A loss to Georgia and a loss in the quarterfinals or semifinals would drop LSU to a four seed and if everything went wrong drop them to a five. I don’t think this is likely with the way the Tigers are playing right now, but it shows how much there still is to play for at this point in the year.

I’ve maintained the 2-18 range in the women’s game is extremely volatile. Kansas State was No. 2 a couple weeks ago and is now No. 15. The goal for LSU at the very least is to host the first two rounds of their NCAA Tournament games and it would take a catastrophe for that not to happen.

Could LSU sneak into a one-seed?

Yes… but it would require winning out. That includes winning the SEC Tournament and potentially beating South Carolina in Greenville. If that happens, LSU is a lock for a one seed. Even if it’s not South Carolina, if LSU won the SEC Tournament I think it would have enough status to warrant a one seed.

Ohio State, Texas, and Stanford are the other one seeds right now, but they could easily drop a game in the conference tournament, paving a way for the Tigers to sneak onto the one line. 

The head to head win over Virginia Tech could carry some weight if it’s close with the Hokies. LSU has been playing their best ball of the season over the past month, so winning out isn’t off the table, but it would require the Tigers to win three games in the conference tournament, which has never been a priority for Kim Mulkey. In the last two years, LSU has one win in the SEC Tournament and Mulkey has talked about it not being important to her, so we’ll see how hard they push for it in March. 

Regardless, LSU has set itself up to be a contender for a top seed with a strong close to the season and that’s exactly where their Hall-of-Fame coach wants to be.