Breaking down LSU's 2024 schedule, setting expectations
LSU received its 2024 SEC schedule on Wednesday night, locking into place every game on its schedule for the upcoming season. Not only is it the first year of a 16-team SEC, but the Tigers also have two games against major brands in the Big 10, USC and UCLA, on the docket as well.
Even though long-time rivalries like Mississippi State and Auburn are not present, the Tigers get an infusion of new life and new excitement in the schedule for next year and will need to be ready as the challenge of winning the conference increases significantly.
Here’s a breakdown of the schedule and how the Tigers shape up in this way-too-early look at the 2024 season.
The first four
vs. USC (In Las Vegas), vs. Nicholls, @ South Carolina, vs. UCLA
It’s another stressful start to the season for LSU fans as the Tigers play a third straight neutral site opener against another major program, this time against Lincoln Riley’s Trojans. Obviously, Caleb Williams is gone from a team that went 7-5, but USC appears primed to get a talented transfer QB and has plenty of offensive weapons to present problems.
Nicholls is 2024’s in-state non conference game. Then, SEC play begins with a road game at South Carolina. The Gamecocks went 5-7 this year, but had close losses with North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Clemson. UCLA went 7-5 overall, but 4-5 in the PAC 12 and lost its defensive coordinator and Dante Moore over the offseason.
LSU should be slight favorites against USC and 6-11 point favorites against South Carolina and UCLA. If the Tigers can get past USC to start the season, there’s a path for a 4-0 start, which would push them up the rankings quickly.
The middle four
Vs. South Alabama, vs. Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, @ Texas A&M
You take another non-conference win before diving head first into the rest of SEC play with a crucial home game against Ole Miss. Not only does Lane Kiffin, Jaxson Dart, Quinshon Judkins, and Tre Harris return, but it appears the Rebels will be incredibly aggressive in the portal yet again. That could easily be a game between two top 10 teams.
The back-to-back of Arkansas and Texas A&M is going to be tricky, even if neither opponent is in the top 25. Mike Elko is a good coach and could immediately build a defensive identity there to win some games. Games in College Station seem to always give LSU problems.
Ole Miss is the toughest game in this group by a wide margin, but like I said, A&M on the road is always noteworthy.
The final four
Vs. Alabama, @ Florida, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Oklahoma
The Alabama game could once again decide a spot in the SEC title game, even without divisions. This is often the rivalry that decides LSU’s season. A win here would also likely secure a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff. The Tide should be elite next year with the return of Jalen Milroe and Caleb Downs.
Florida is in a rebuild of sorts and has one of the toughest schedules in the country for 2024. Vanderbilt is the third easiest game on the schedule (maybe the second). Then, Oklahoma at home to end the year could also be for a playoff spot or an SEC title game spot. Huge implications pending on that final home game, which is great for LSU and the SEC. Two huge brands battling it out in Baton Rouge. This is what conference expansion is all about.
One major takeaway
LSU has been significantly better at home under Brian Kelly than it has been on the road and if that holds true, this is a favorable schedule for the Tigers. USC on a neutral site, then South Carolina, Arkansas A&M, and Florida as the four true road games? That’s something LSU will take every time. Coming off of a year where the three losses where to Ole Miss, Alabama, and Florida State all on the road, this is a huge advantage.
Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and UCLA all at home. If the Tigers can go 3-1 in those games, this is a playoff team. Even 2-2 could get the Tigers there.
There are ample factors that we haven’t weighed yet. We don’t even know who the quarterbacks will be for half of these opponents, but the Tigers return some exciting talent and will be expected to thrive in the new-look SEC as challenging schedules like these become the norm.
