Breaking down LSU's potential path to a Final Four

LSU lost in the SEC Championship game on Sunday evening and now has a 11-day layover before the beginning of the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers did their job, winning two games against Auburn and Ole Miss to secure favorable seeding and now waits for the selection show on March 17.

Here, we’re looking at the latest Bracketology on ESPN, plus my thoughts on the best draw and the toughest possible draw for LSU.

Charlie Creme’s latest Bracketology

Creme said going into Sunday’s game that LSU was locked into a two-seed regardless of the result and that appears to be the case. The Tigers don’t have a resume of a one-seed, but are clearly better than the listed three-seeds leaving the conference tournaments. After back to back years of being a 3-seed, the Tigers have moved up and will have a slightly easier draw as a result.

The Baton Rouge region in Creme’s bracket currently has the Tigers facing Jackson State, who went 18-0 in the SWAC and had some solid non-conference results, then the 7-seed Creighton and the 10-seed Maryland all coming to Baton Rouge.

Here is the link to Creme’s full bracket.

Now, let’s get to the potential matchups.

Possible 1-seeds

The four one-seeds are set at the moment. Maybe Texas creeps in front of Stanford if the Longhorns win the Big 12, but it would be tight. Right now, it’s South Carolina, Iowa, USC, and Stanford. LSU would have to make the Elite Eight to face one of these teams.

Best case: Stanford

Stanford is a good team, with two towers inside in Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen, but the guard play is shaky on both sides. The Cardinals hardly force any turnovers on defense and are a less versatile version of South Carolina on offense. This would be a great matchup for LSU in a potential Elite 8.

Worst case: USC

The Trojans have won 12 of their last 13 and have figured out how to win games even without Juju Watkins having great games. This year, they’re 2-0 against Stanford, 2-1 against UCLA, 1-1 against Colorado, but 0-2 against Utah. The potential of Watkins going off is terrifying, but as a team, USC has become one of the top teams in the nation after winning the Pac-12.

LSU will not be in the same region as South Carolina, so that’s out of the question, so it’s Iowa and Texas as the other two options, which would both be challenging in very different ways.

Possible 3-seeds

Creme currently has Notre Dame in LSU’s region, while NC State, Oregon State, and UConn are the other 3-seeds. Oklahoma could climb back up by winning the Big 12 tournament, so we can include them as well. LSU would face this group in the Sweet 16.

Best case: Oregon State

I say Oregon State, but if UConn is without Aaliyah Edwards then I’d take Uconn. It sounds like Edwards could be back in a couple of weeks, though. As for the Beavers, they are 0-5 against Stanford and USC this year, albeit staying close in all five games. On the flip side, Oregon State is 5-0 against Colorado and Utah and split with UCLA. It’s a quality team, but Oregon State ranks dead last in the country in turnovers forced and is 80th in defensive rating. It’s a good 3-point shooting team, but not great, and Reagan Beers on the inside is their go-to option at 6-foot-4.

Worst case: Notre Dame

The Irish have won eight straight, with five by 13 or more, to take the ACC title and plenty of momentum into the tournament. It hasn’t been the most consistent season, but with freshman Hannah Hidalgo leading the way at 23 points per game, Notre Dame is a quality 3-point shooting team that also ranks No. 11 in the country in defensive rating. I would have LSU as slight favorites, but it would be the toughest matchup here in a Sweet 16 game.

Possible 7-seeds

It’s Ole Miss, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Creighton on the 7-line right now. Tennessee and Ole Miss can’t be in LSU’s region as a 7-seed, so that eliminates them. I could see Baylor potentially falling to a 7-seed, maybe Nebraska getting up to a 7-seed, but either game would not be too intimidating in the second round.

Best case: Creighton

The Blue Jays are 25-5 but have played one top 15 team all year, UConn. In those two games, Creighton has lost by 44 and 20. Not to mention, its a team coming off of a poor conference tournament run with a narrow win over Seton Hall and a 55-46 loss to Georgetown. The Blue Jays are 175th in defensive rating, 131st in rebounding rate, and 325th in forcing turnovers. Sounds like a game LSU could dominate in round two, like UConn did.

Worst case: North Carolina

I understand, the record is unimpressive, at 19-12 overall, but the Tar Heels have skins on the way that show how tough they can be. For one, they gave South Carolina fits when they played in November, losing 65058 after leading at halftime and they’re the only team other than LSU to out rebound the Gamecocks this year. Then you get to wins over Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Louisville, NC State, Duke, and it’s clear this team can hang with anybody. Nine of the 12 losses have come by single digits and none have come by more than 15. This team plays a lot of close games and is led by tough seniors in Deja Kelly and Lexi Donarski. I wouldn’t want them in my region to start.