By The Numbers: Five stats LSU needs to improve on this month

LSU sits at 2-1 overall and 1-0 in conference play after an enthralling four-hour win over South Carolina on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers have not made it easy on themselves so far this year, unable to close out USC, struggling with Nicholls State for a half, and then nearly throwing a way multiple chances to win the game against the Gamecocks on Saturday, but we’re still talking about a team that is going to be ranked in the top 20 come Monday and a 2-1 team with all of its goals still in front of it.

Over the next three weeks, LSU’s schedule is two home games against UCLA and South Alabama, followed by a bye week. Following that is seven straight SEC games. These next three weeks are crucial to patching the holes, fixing rotations, and figuring out what’s the next step forward on both sides of the ball.

Here, we’re going to look at five numbers that highlight areas for improvement for this team a quarter of the way through the season as LSU looks to right the ship and start playing its best football in October. Let’s get into it.

8.67 – Penalties per game

The most alarming stat so far has been the penalties. In the first two years under Brian Kelly, LSU has averaged 6.1 penalties per game in both years. For that number to be up close to nine per game through three games right now is unacceptable. You could argue penalties lost LSU the game against USC, then Kelly’s team had more procedural penalties against Nicholls State that were baffling. On Saturday, LSU’s nine penalties for 75 yards were overshadowed by South Carolina’s ineptitude.

On offense, the offensive line has to get it together. From false starts to snap infractions, there’s no reason for this experienced of an offensive line to be having miscommunications. DJ Chester at center is learning on the job and has to get more comfortable in the coming weeks. On defense, there have been pass interference calls and a few too many disconcerting signal penalties so far. There’s no reason for LSU to be 116th in the country in penalties per game under Brian Kelly.

6.3 – Yards per play allowed

Defensively, it feels like the unit is better than last year’s, but I’d argue it’s just been a lot more boom or bust so far, especially in the last two games against Nicholls and South Carolina who were awful passing offenses. The 6.3 yards per play allowed puts LSU at No. 114th in the country so far this year and actually .2 worse than last year’s number. The Tigers should be able to lower that number against UCLA, South Alabama, and Vanderbilt on the schedule, but that’s not the point.

The goal is to have a defense that can slow down the top teams on the schedule and to this point, I still don’t have a ton of belief that LSU can do that. There are flashes that give legitimate hope, but with Jacobian Guillory’s injury, even more players have to step up in the front seven. Blake Baker has made this defense more aggressive for certain, but the Tigers need to clean up the run fits and be more fundamentally sound.

8 – Rushing touchdowns allowed

LSU is one of only two P4 teams with more than 6 rushing touchdowns allowed this season (Texas Tech 9) and it shows the work that needs to be done in terms of tackling, not getting washed out, and playing assignment football. Coaches talk a lot about eye discipline and on both of South Carolina’s long touchdown runs, the eye discipline was poor.

On LaNorris Sellers run off of the fake weep, all of the linebackers flooded to the outside, allowing Sellers to hit the hole and just beat a safety for a touchdown. On the Rocket Sanders score, Whit Weeks got caught too far inside, allowing Sanders to get to the edge and break the run. Even on the touchdown run from the 10, South Carolina easily got the safeties out of position and created a wide open hole. The run defense is not good enough right now and needs to take a significant step forward.

41.7% – Third down conversion percentage

On offense, there’s been a struggle with the Tigers ability to convert third downs, ranking 61st in the country in this stat and it especially seems to bite them in the redzone. Garrett Nussmeier has to be more accurate and on time with his passes, the offensive line has to pick up blitzes better and overall the toughness of the run game has to be able to earn the tough yards to move the chains. Nussmeier also has to be more dynamic with his legs, looking to run to pick up the firsts. Whether it’s the playcalling or the execution, there’s no reason for an offense with this many weapons to be struggling in short yardage, especially considering LSU is usually in manageable situations. 

11.06 – Yards per completion

We can talk about the run game at lengths, and that definitely has to be better, but LSU’s lack of explosive play ability in the pass game has been fairly concerning to this point in the year. I attribute some of that to the absence of Chris Hilton and the lack of top-end speed on the perimeter, but there still need to be more success in the pass game over the top or at least in the 15-30 yard range to keep defenses honest.

Brian Kelly talked about USC and Nicholls loading the box, so taking the short yardage passing was fine, but ultimately with Garrett Nussmeier’s arm talent there needs to be a way to find more chunk plays in the passing game. Hopefully Hilton is back in the near future to add another weapon on the outside, especially with Kyle Parker and Shelton Sampson unable to contribute so far, but there’s plenty of concerns. The offensive line has to protect better, Nussmeier has to see the field better, and the receivers have to make plays.

The pass game is not a worrisome spot for me, because Nussmeier has been exceptional, but the lack of explosiveness in through the air is something to watch for.