By The Numbers: Putting Paul Skenes' dominance in perspective

As Paul Skenes left the mound in the bottom of the eighth inning on Saturday night at Charles Schwab Field in LSU’s College World Series opener, there was some uncertainty amongst those in purple and gold. The standing ovation was undeniable, as Skenes just delivered another dominant outing en route to a win, but could this be the last time on the mound in an LSU jersey?

After the Tigers lost to Wake Forest on Monday night, it looked as though that was a real possibility. Instead, Nate Ackenhausen, Riley Cooper, Griffin Herring, and the entire LSU pitching staff stepped up over the past two games to stave off elimination, beating Tennessee and Wake Forest in back to back days.

Now, the Tigers play Wake Forest again, with the winner advancing to the College World Series championship series and baseball fans will be in for a spectacle. Paul Skenes is expected to return to the mound for LSU and his Tigers will be facing Rhett Lowder, the Wake Forest ace.

“I mean, this is something that we look forward to all year,” Skenes said after his outing against Tennessee to start the College World Series. “This is why I came to LSU. But honestly, playing in front of as many fans as we have at Alex Box, and kind of mentally preparing over the last 10 months or whatever it’s been, when it comes down to it it just comes down to execution. Coach says the game doesn’t change, people change. As long as we make it to where we don’t change, then that allows us to have success here.”

As Skenes prepares for his biggest game of the season, let’s take a deep dive into his numbers on the year to further contextualize what he’s accomplished.

Starting on the surface

1.81 ERA – 2nd in the country

.170 Batting Average – 3rd in the country

Last year at Air Force, Skenes had an impressive 2.73 ERA and a .226 batting average in 85.22 innings pitched. Since then, his fastball has jumped up in velocity by five miles per hour, his off speed stuff has gotten even stronger, and he’s mentally locked in on a different level. Head coach Jay Johnson and pitching coach Wes Johnson have taken his game to another level and that’s why you see the drastic difference between the 2022 version of Skenes and 2023.

Leading the country

.463 OPS

Skenes has the lowest OPS of the year, .53 percent better than the second best. When batters are able to get a hit on him, they’re usually not for multiple bases.

46% strikeout rate

The strikeout rate is absurd. Second best in the country sits at 39,8 percent. Skenes is striking out nearly half the batters he faces. The fastball is obviously a problem, but he showed in the last outing against Tennessee that he was able to really control the off speed pitches for strikes as well. We’ll get into his strikeouts more below.

41.6% Strikeouts minus walks percentage

One of the highest marks ever, with the aforementioned 46 SO% and just a 4.4 BB%, Skenes doesn’t let opponents breathe. Of the 25 players in the country with a strikeout percentage of 31 percent or better, Skenes is the only one with a walk percentage under five.

.78 WHIP

Pretty simply put, runners aren’t getting on base. WHIP is one of the most used metrics for measuring a pitcher’s success, so it’s only right that Skenes leads the country.

When hitters make contact

Batting average of balls put in play: .307  / (.310 in 2022)

Flyball % 46.2  / (30.4 in 2022)

Groundball %: 41  / (47.9 in 2022)

Linedrive %: 12.7  / (21.7 in 2022)

Batters are just unable to get solid contact off Skenes this year, as evident from the line drive percentage. Hitters can’t get the barrel on his stuff, forcing more flyouts, pop outs, and weak dribblers. He’s obviously a pitcher that hunts strikeouts with the elite combinations he can put together, but this is an interesting look at how batters fare when they make contact. 

Strikeout record in sight

200 Strikeouts

Ben McDonald’s SEC record is 202 and if Skenes steps on the mound for two more innings this year, that record is likely broken. The most strikeouts in a season this century is 213 by Jered Weaver in 2004, with the second most by Trevor Bauer with 203 strikeouts in 2011.

It’s very likely Skenes at least ends this season with the second most strikeouts in a season since 1996 and in the top 10 all time.

“Found out about that after the game, which is really cool, Skenes said of the record after the Tennessee win. “But, I mean, it comes down to executing. And I think I did a good job of that today, especially early on. It’s really cool to do that. But I’m just a lot more happy with the execution.”