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ESPN Playoff Predictor: LSU's CFP chances after Texas A&M loss

Untitled design (1)by:Julie Boudwin•10/27/24
Kyren Lacy
Oct 26, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Kyren Lacy (2) catches a pass as Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Bryce Anderson (1) and defensive back Will Lee III (26) defend during the second quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images.

The LSU Tigers dropped a critical game against Texas A&M Saturday night in College Station, where they fell 38-23 to the Aggies, who now sit atop the SEC standings. With this loss, LSU’s record stands at 6-2 (3-1 SEC) as they head into a much-needed bye week before facing rival Alabama on November 9.

After Saturday’s game, head coach Brian Kelly shared his disappointment with the outcome.

“I mean, we’ve lost our margin, right?” he said after the game. “We have no margin for error. We have to go back and look at some of the things I just talked about, right? We have to build balance within the offense. We have to be able to handle the running quarterback. The silliness of the field-goal stuff, that has got to end. That is just ridiculous. We’ll clean that up in short order. But those two things in particular.”

LSU’s playoff hopes are not completely dashed, though the Tigers have little room for error. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives LSU a 21.2 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff field, and a 4.3 percent chance to win the SEC Championship.

To secure a playoff spot, the Tigers will need to win all their remaining regular-season games, barring a major shakeup in the SEC standings over the next few weeks. After a bye, LSU will play three of its final four games at home: they face Alabama on Nov. 9 in Tiger Stadium, travel to Florida on Nov. 16, and return to Baton Rouge for matchups against Vanderbilt on Nov. 23 and Oklahoma on Nov. 30 to close the regular season.

According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, LSU’s toughest tests will be against Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma. The Tigers have only a 32 percent chance to beat the Crimson Tide, but the predictor gives them a 59 percent chance against the Gators and 75 percent against the Sooners, also, has LSU beating Vanderbilt.

While college football can be unpredictable, a CFP National Championship run is unlikely for LSU at this point. The Tigers have only a 2.3 percent chance to make the title game and a 1.0 percent chance to win it all.

The Tigers are now focused on regrouping and finishing the season strong, beginning with improvements during the bye week. LSU needs to bolster its running game to provide quarterback Garrett Nussmeier with a more balanced offense, while defensively, the priority is containing mobile quarterbacks. A victory over Alabama would thrust LSU back into the SEC title race and keep its slim playoff hopes alive, as this matchup is shaping up to be a playoff elimination game.

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